South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 21st October)

Best Days: Sun: maybe some small OK waves at sheltered southern ends in Northern NSW in the a'noon, tiny in SE Qld though. Mon: small waves in SE Qld, solid surf with early OK winds in Northern NSW. Tues: very large S/SE swell in Northern NSW with light winds and sea breezes. Plenty of good waves in SE Qld too. 

This weekend (Oct 22nd - Oct 23rd)

There’s not a lot of love in store for Saturday.

Freshening northerly winds across the entire region will precede a late W’ly change; we’ll see a small mix of peaky swells across most coasts but it won’t be terribly large and most regions will remain bumpy throughout most of the day. 

Surf size will be largest across the Mid North Coast with peaky 3ft sets at NE facing beaches, and surf size will be smaller across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld (around the 2ft mark). 

There’s a chance for a mid-late afternoon glass off ahead of the W’y change (which itself will precede a gusty S/SE change overnight) so keep an eye on the local obs as there could be a late window of opportunity. 

Sunday’s wind change may bring about more pleasant conditions but the surf potential remains pretty ordinary overall. These southerlies will be associated with a developing multi-centered Tasman low that's going to generate great waves early next week.

Several fronts are expected to wrap around the primary low; the first arriving Saturday night (mentioned above) but the next one is due Southern NSW during the early hours of Sunday morning, reaching the Mid North Coast early Sunday morning and the Far North Coast mid-late morning.

Initially, the fetch width and strength trailing Saturday night’s change won’t be terribly wide nor very strong, so we’ll be relying on Sunday’s change to kick up a more substantial south swell during the day. Read: early Sunday will be starting from a pretty small residual base, even in Northern NSW.

And even with the second S'ly change expected to build wave heights across the region, there are several factors working against us: (1) the timing of the stronger winds (surf size won’t really start to build properly until lunchtime on the Mid North Coast, and the afternoon in the Far North), (2) the southerly swell direction (limiting the biggest waves to south swell magnets in Northern NSW, which will be wind affected) and (3) the mainly modest wind strengths, which will keep swell periods low and - along the the southerly swell direction - result in very small surf throughout SE Qld. 

So, Sunday looks pretty ordinary on the whole. We should see a small mid-late afternoon increase across SE Qld but I think the outer points will probably max out at 1-2ft, and exposed south facing beaches will be bigger but quite wind affected.

South of the border (specifically, south of Byron) we’ll see solid windy waves increase through the afternoon, probably somewhere into the 4-5ft range by the end of the day though I’m not confident for any major quality at the regional points and sheltered southern ends, which will be smaller in size. Obviously, they’ll be your best (and only) chance for a wave so keep an eye on things throughout the day and pick your locations accordingly. 

Next week (Oct 24th onwards)

While Sunday’s windy waves are building across Southern NSW, the parent Tasman Low will be intensifying in the mid-southern Tasman Sea, halfway between Tasmania and the southern end of New Zealand’s South Island. This is slightly more south and west than Wednesday’s model guidance indicated, which means the resulting swell direction will have a little more south in it (i.e. S/SE). And pushing that theory a little further, it means protected spots will be slightly smaller than a similar swell event with more east in its direction.

The models have also sped up the development of this weather system, so we’re now looking at an earlier building trend, with a peak in expected on Tuesday. 

Monday will mainly see a slight levelling from Sunday afternoon’s peak, probably somewhere in the same size as indicated above though a building ridge through the Coral Sea may contribute some small new short range SE swell across SE Qld coasts. This may produce 2ft surf across the Gold Coast and 2-3ft across the Sunshine Coast, however those beaches picking up the size will be wind affected (the southern Goldy points should have a few small runners though). 

The primary S/SE groundswell may nose into the Mid North Coast late Monday afternoon, but Tuesday is where we’ll see all of the action. Due to the strong southerly component in the swell direction, there will be a large range in wave heights. South swell magnets south of Byron should see bom sets up to 6-8ft, with 5-6ft+ waves across semi-exposed points and smaller 3-4ft surf inside sheltered southern corners and the more protected points. 

Although southerly swells don’t often translate into much across SE Qld, the stalled nature of the developing Tasman low and the strong surface winds (resulting in relatively large periods from a swell of this origin) should override these directional deficiencies. Therefore I’m confident for some very good waves across the Gold and Sunshine Coasts on Tuesday, reaching 3ft across most of the outer points; a little smaller across protected beaches, but much smaller inside sheltered points such as Noosa. However, we should see up to 3-5ft at reliable south swell magnets north of the border. 

Tuesday morning is looking fantastic on the surface too, with light variable winds and clear sunny skies. These winds will swing into an afternoon NE sea breeze so make the most of the early session.

Tuesday’s S/SE swell will then ease steadily through Wednesday and winds will freshen from the north. So the early session will be your best chance here. 

We have a couple of sources of swell for the longer term period too. A deepening trough NE of New Zealand over the weekend is expected to slip just into the swell shadow of the North Island but it may just poke its head north enough to deliver some small E/SE swell to SE Qld later next week (around Friday). It’s a long time away right now but occasional 2ft+ sets are possible.

Otherwise, a weak southerly change alongside an upper trough pushing up the Southern NSW coast on Thursday is expected to trigger a new surface low close to the coast. This is expected to strengthen southerly gales about all regions into Friday, with a possible deepening Tasman Low bringing more strong southerly swells next weekend. 

More on that in Monday’s notes.. ’till then have a great weekend!