South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 17th October)

Best Days: Tues/Wed/Thurs: small NE swell at first (rapidly easing during Tues), plus a small pulsey E'ly trade swell - mainly across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. Tricky winds but there'll be small windows of opportunity at the open beaches on the tide. Sat: small NE swell across the Mid North Coast. Sun: solid S'ly swell in Northern NSW, best on Monday (maybe some small peelers across SE Qld outer points then too). 

Recap: Saturday offered some fun waves across Northern NSW with early light winds and 3ft+ of leftover south swell that eased during the day. Surf size was smaller across the Tweed Coast, and smaller again throughout SE Qld though the Sunshin Coast picked up a small trade swell - though unfortunately, it also saw acompanying SE winds. Sunday delivered smaller surf however a brief window of light winds early morning provided clean conditions across Northern NSW, allowing some fun beach breaks before the northerlies kicked in. SE Qld was very small on Sunday. Today we have seen strengthening N’ly winds and building NE windswells, with exposed north facing beaches across the Gold Coast and some parts of Northern NSW now seeing 3ft sets. A W’ly change is approaching the region and should arrive very soon across the Mid North Coast though it’s difficult to see whether it’ll reach the Far North Coast or SE Qld with enough time to benefit surfers.

Bumpy NE swell at Snapper this afternoon

Peaky NE swell at Yamba

Two blokes out at First Point Noosa!

This week (Oct 18th - Oct 21st)

Today’s westerly change has no redeeming features of than its influence on surface conditions. 

It’s associated with a storm track that’s riding particular north in latitude, which means there is no secondary fetch to the south pushing into the lower Tasman Sea. As such, we have no significant south swell on the way in the near future.

Tuesday will therefore deliver rapidly easing NE swell from today, and SE Qld will see a small undercurrent of trade swell from a minor fetch that’s been positioned off the southern end of New Caledonia for the last day or so. 

Set waves should manage a peaky 2ft from the Sunshine Coast down to about Byron Bay (maybe a few bigger sets on the Sunny Coast if we’re lucky), with smaller surf south from about Ballina to Port Macquarie. Conditions will be clean with light winds ahead of a NE sea breeze after lunch. 

The NE swell will be all gone by Wednesday but the aforementioned small trade swell should persist around 2ft across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with smaller surf south from Ballina again. It’ll be quite slow and inconsistent (and tidally dependent) but should be enough to get the beach breaks running with small peaky options. 

Wednesday will also see a shallow southerly change extend slowly along the Northern NSW coast during the day (light to moderate W’ly winds ahead of it), arriving across the border around dinnertime or later. There won’t be much strength in the trailing fetch so the associated south swell from it won’t be very big, pushing through on Thursday with maybe some inconsistent 2ft+ sets at south facing beaches south of Byron Bay. Local winds look mainly light and variable though a lingering onshore flow may persist about some locations in the Far North as a weak ridge extends across the region. 

A secondary south swell may also show up at south facing beaches through Thursday, originating from the broader parent low (still SW of Victoria right now), which is expected to pass across Tasmania on Tuesday afternoon, enter our acute south swell window late in the day. I can’t see it producing much more than the short range S’ly swell though.

Very little surf is expected in SE Qld from these southerly swell sources. However Wednesday's small trade swell is expected to linger through Thursday morning before easing slowly into the afternoon and a little more into Friday. 

Otherwise, a temporary ridge seeing up camp across the Coral Sea later Thursday may generate a minor short range SE swell for the Sunshine Coast on Friday, but it’s unlikely we’ll see much size and locations south of the Gold Coast probably won’t pick up any new energy. 

Small surf will prevail across remaining coasts on Friday with winds swinging back to the north and freshening again. So it looks like a dull end to the week across most regions - make the most of the small swell sources mid-week.

This weekend (Oct 22nd - Oct 23rd)

Friday’s strengthening NE flow may kick up a small windswell for Saturday across the Mid North Coast but we probably won’t see much size. Winds are expected to swing NW ahead of a late SW change, so there’s a decent chance of a few small beach breaks in the 2ft+ range but it's nothing to get excited about.

North of Coffs Harbour or maybe Yamba, surf size will be even smaller on Saturday so it’s looking like a poor day for waves, especially with a persistent NNW breeze all day. 

Model guidance is then developing a broad, complex multi-centered southern Tasman low in the wake of Saturday’s southerly change that could very well deliver a sizeable, windy south swell for Northern NSW on Sunday. Our surf forecast model has this pegged around the 4-6ft mark right now at exposed south facing beaches however most of this energy is short range windswell (which wouldn’t deliver much size north of the border, either). The best southerly groundswell from this system - if it pans out as the models are currently progging - probably wouldn’t arrive until Monday - but that's a long time away and synamic systems like this often change considerably with each successive model run. 

So, let’s see how future model runs hold in before we get too excited. 

Next week (Oct 24th onwards)

Sunday’s Tasman low looks like it’ll remain a feature inside our swell window for a couple of days, meaning surf prospects should remain quite elevated from the south through Monday and maybe Tuesday of next week. 

Our persistent source of small east swell (from this week) is also expected to reintensify well to the SE of Fiji later this week and may end up contributing some small E’ly swell to our region again early next week. But that’s a long time away for now.

See you back on Wednesday!