South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 12th October)

Best Days: Fri: improving winds across Northern NSW and a strong S'ly swell. Small waves across outer SE Qld points. Sat: easing S'ly and SE swells, small in SE Qld and bigger across Northern NSW, best early with light winds. Sun: small east swell for SE Qld, best early before the N'ly winds kick in. 

Recap: Small NE wind waves offered a few little options about the SE Qld and Far Northern NSW coast on Tuesday morning though quality wasn’t very high. A gusty S’ly change pushed up the coast, building surf at south facing beaches in Northern NSW to a bumpy 3-4ft during the day. We’ve seen a slow easing today with much lighter winds across most regions, though a lingering moderate sou'easter has persisted about Far Northern NSW. Surf size has remained very small throughout SE Qld. 

This week (Oct 13th - Oct 14th)

Unfortunately, we’ve had a downgrade in the strength of Thursday’s southerly change. 

Local winds will still be quite gusty but the fetch won’t have quite enough size or strength to generate any meaningful southerly swell for the SE Qld region, due to the southerly swell direction. However, there is a small local swell source on the cards.. I'll get to that in a minute.

Back to the broader synoptics: the actual timing of Thursday's southerly change is quite complex. A pre-frontal trough will precede the main blow, so we’re looking at SW tending S’ly winds across Northern NSW from dawn on Thursday, reaching the NSW/Qld border mid-morning. But this will display a thin fetch with little swell generating potential.

By mid-morning Thursday, the head of the primary fetch will still be positioned about level with the Mid North Coast, so what this means is that Thursday’s upwards trend (in the surf department) probably won’t kick in until the afternoon across Northern NSW, and it’ll be a very late arrival north of the border (at those exposed beaches picking up any size). 

So in short: expect tiny conditions to persist all day across most SE Qld beaches. We probably won’t see much of an increase across the Northern NSW coast until the afternoon; specifically the Mid North Coast who’ll see an increase first, then the Far North Coast later.

As such, Friday is where all of the size will kick in.

Most of this energy will have originated for a mix of trailing S’ly winds originating from behind Thursday’s change, plus a broader secondary S/SW fetch south of Tasmania today. This should kick up south facing beaches to 4-5ft in Northern NSW, with smaller waves at beaches not open to the south.

Unfortunately, predominant southerly tending S/SE winds will render most beaches quite bumpy. There’s a chance for pockets of SW winds early morning, but this will most likely occur south of Yamba, with the Far North Coast expected to be under the influence of a moderate ridge of high pressure, driving moderate to fresh S/SE winds across most of this region.

Across SE Qld we’ll see very little S’ly swell away from south swell magnets, and they’ll be horribly bumpy under 20kt+ S/SE winds. However, these local winds should generate some small waves for the outer Gold Coast points throughout the middle to latter part of the day and possibly some Sunshine Coast locations into the afternoon (surf size will start from a smaller base across the SC due to the timing of this system). Protected points and corners will remain tiny though. 

However I’m doubtful that we’ll see much more than a lacklustre 1-2ft across the southern Gold Coast points by lunchtime. They’ll be the only workable option thanks to the local winds. 

If you have to aim for something bigger then exposed south facing beaches should see occasional 2-3ft sets but it’ll be very ordinary on the surface. 

So, keep your expectations low for Friday - it ain’t looking terribly flash. 

This weekend (Oct 15th - Oct 16th)

There are no major new swell sources for the weekend.

Saturday will see easing S/SE swell from Friday but with much better conditions; they’ll probably be a moderate lingering SE breeze across the Far North Coast (north of Ballina) but elsewhere we should see light variable winds and sea breezes. South swell magnets south of Byron should pull in early 3-5ft sets but it’ll be down to 2-3ft by the afternoon. Expect smaller waves elsewhere. 

SE Qld won’t see much size this weekend though Friday’s ridge should contribute some small short period swell to the open beaches. Unfortunately these winds will persist into Saturday although in a weakened state, so aim for the beaches for low quality peaky 1-2ft+ surf at best (maybe a little bigger at south swell magnets). 

A broadening high pressure system across the northern Tasman Sea on Saturday will freshen a modest easterly fetch across our eastern swell window, which should give rise to a small east swell throughout Sunday. No major size is expected however we should see 2ft sets across the Gold Coast, and a little bigger throughout the Sunshine Coast though size will drop off as you head south from Byron (the fetch will be aimed into SE Qld). 

Early light winds and expected to freshen from the N/NE during the day so the small gains in easterly swell will be compounded by deteriorating conditions. Obviously, early morning Sunday is probably your best choice with lighter winds. 

Across Northern NSW, smaller surf will prevail on Sunday as the south swell really bottoms out. Northerly winds will become quite gusty into the afternoon so you’ll need to aim for a northern corner for the best waves.  

Next week (Oct 17th onwards)

Strengthening northerly winds on Monday will wipe any chance of a decent wave. There’s no new swell expected anyway, just the small linger east swell across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW from Sunday. This swell should persist for a few days but probably won’t show any major size. 

I’ll also keep an eye on the waters south of Fiji over the coming model runs as there’s a suggestion we’ll see a tropical disturbance out here that could eventuate as a swell producer.

Otherwise, a series of fronts scheduled to push through the lower Tasman Sea next week have been significantly downgraded in the latest runs, which suggests we could be looking at a weak of low swell potential for much of Northern NSW for the rest of the week. Let’s take a closer look on Friday.