South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 5th October)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: several strong south swells across Northern NSW (tiny in SE Qld), though Thurs will see a space of time between pulses (early down south, later up north). Best conditions in the mornings. Sat: easing S'ly swell across Northern NSW (tiny in SE Qld) with offshore winds. 

Recap: Tiny surf across most coasts on Tuesday, though a handful of south facing beaches in Far Northern NSW (between Coffs and Byron) picked up a small spread of south swell. This swell eased overnight, leaving most beaches almost flat this morning. However a new S’ly swell is building across the Mid North Coast (3-4ft sets) and should nose into the Far North Coast later today. 

New lines of S'ly swell at Coffs Harbour around 4pm this afternoon

This week (Oct 6th - Oct 7th)

We’ve got a complex week of multiple south swells ahead. 

But in short for SE Qld surfers - there are no signs of any major break in the unfavourable storm track. It’s likely that the current tiny conditions will persist through the rest of this week, the weekend and all of next week. Maybe next weekend and early in the following week too.

Anyway, the current south swell moving up the coast is expected to peak overnight across the Mid North Coast, and probably early morning across the Far North Coast.

Wave heights across the Southern NSW coast have come in marginally higher than forecast: 3-4ft across Sydney’s south facing beaches and 5-6ft across the Hunter. However I still fee pretty confident with Monday's estimate, that the Northern NSW coast’s south facing beaches (south of Byron) will see 3-4ft+ sets from this swell at its peak - though this will probably occur overnight south of Coffs so expect the easing trend to kick in before dawn. Expect smaller surf at beaches not completely open to the south.

Across SE Qld, this swell really won’t make any impact at most Gold and Sunshine Coast stretches however the region’s handful of exposed south swell magnets should pick up a few stray 2ft sets. Expect much smaller surf everywhere else.

Conditions should be pretty clean in all areas with early light offshore winds ahead of an afternoon sea breeze. 

Following this morning event, we have several new pulses of south swell due over the coming 36 hours, courtesy of a vigorous front and low passing across Tasmanian longitudes. Maatsuyker Island - off the southern tip of Tasmania - this afternoon recorded a north-west wind gust of 86 kts (159km/hr).

The first swell expected to push through Southern NSW on Thursday morning, and should reach the Mid North Coast during the afternoon, arresting the easing trend and providing a kick back up into the 3-4ft+ range at south facing beaches for the late session. This swell will be generated by strong to gale force W/SW winds exiting eastern Bass Strait tonight.

I’m not confident of the timing of this pulse across the Far North Coast; it’s possible we’ll see some movement before the end of the day but we’ll have to watch the obs further south to assess the trend.

Long period energy from the parent low (tracking below Tasmania) will trail behind, and with core winds in excess of 50kts, we should see peak swell periods reaching 17-18 seconds as the energy glances the Northern NSW coast. The leading edge is due to reach the Mid North Coast before dawn on Friday, before pushing north to the Far North Coast, probably arriving in the Ballina/Byron region around mid-late morning. A peak in size is then expected through Friday afternoon. 

The models are not picking up this swell very well at all, and I think we’re going to see bigger surf than our graphs are showing. Most of Northern NSW’s reliable south facing beaches should see 3-5ft sets as the swell peaks throughout Friday (smaller at dawn in the Far North) but because of the large swell periods, we’ll see surf size magnified considerably at offshore bombies and a couple of exposed swell magnets. 

However, beaches not open to the south will be much smaller.

You’ll also have to make the most of the early W’ly winds as they’ll veer NW during the morning and then N’ly by lunchtime, becoming fresh into the afternoon. Northern corners will show the best conditions through the afternoon but conditions may be somewhat unruly at these locations with the long period southerly energy, so it could be challenging finding any decent options after lunch.    

This weekend (Oct 8th - Oct 9th)

Saturday looks really good for Northern NSW. We’ll see easing S’ly swell from Friday, maybe some 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches (south of Byron) early - smaller elsewhere - and winds should hold from the W/NW all day as a southerly change moves up the Southern NSW coast. It may clip the lower Mid North Coast late in the day but everywhere else should be nice and clean.

Don’t expect much size in SE Qld, only south swell magnets will see small leftover energy from Friday. Everywhere else will be tiny. 

The southerly change will result in average conditions across northern locations into Sunday morning as winds freshen from the SE as a ridge builds across the coast. We should see a small increase in short range windswell across SE Qld though I can’t see there being anything of major benefit. 

A new S’ly swell generated by the parent low to Sunday's change (located south of Tasmania) is expected to build throughout the afternoon across the Mid North Coast. Early size will be small but the afternoon could see some late 3ft+ sets. Winds should be lighter south of about Yamba too so conditions should be OK across the Mid North Coast (maybe some leftover wobble from Saturday's late change). 

So at this stage, aim for a surf on Saturday across Northern NSW and make it early for the most size. 

Next week (Oct 10th onwards)

Strengthening N’ly winds on Monday will generally wipe out surf conditions across most coasts. We will see plenty of south swell generated by the weekend’s low/front south of Tasmania, but only south swell magnets will pick up any notable size (inconsistent 2-3ft sets at swell magnets, easing during the day). 

A small N’ly windswell may also build across the Northern NSW coast but no great size or quality is expected. 

Monday's strengthening winds will be associated with yet another intense mid-latitude low pressure system crossing the SE corner of the country. It’ll bring a NW tending SW change to the region on Tuesday but it’s hard to see any great surf through the first part of the week at this stage. 

As the low tracks below Tasmania on Monday, it’ll eventually push into our south swell window, generating a solid south swell from Wednesday onwards. In fact, the eastwards passage of this system looks like it’ll clear the floodgates for a succession of meridionally aligned surface fronts that should generate a series of solid south swells through the rest of the week and the weekend. Surf size could easily push the 6ft mark from either of these sources (at Northern NSW south swell magnets) though we'll have to take a closer look on Friday with the latest model guidance. 

So, there’s plenty of swell to look forward to in the long term period, but for now we've got much more important swells due in the next few days.

See you Friday!