South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 23rd September)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: easing S'ly swell with a reinforcing E/SE swell, plus good winds in general. Mon: fresh S'ly swell with mainly good winds. Tues PM/Wed: small E/SE swell.  

Recap: Small surf prevailed throughout much of Thursday, however Friday morning saw a minor increase in E/SE swell from a New Zealand-based swell source, ahead of a larger southerly groundswell pushing across the Mid North Coast into the afternoon. The leading edge of this south swell is now starting to show across Yamba (see below), however beaches open to the south - picking up the most swell - are bumpy with moderate onshore winds. The small E/SE swell is however producing small, very inconsistent waves across exposed locations in SE Qld, as per our surfcam grab from Moffats this afternoon.  

Late southerly lines at Yamba, from our new surfcam

Small E/SE swell lines across the Sunshine Coast, from our Moffats surfcam

This weekend (Saturday 24th - Sunday 25th)

Looks like a pretty good weekend of waves for Northern NSW.

But once again, SE Qld will dip out in the surf department.

Today’s minor E/SE swell will ease into Saturday, and the building south swell will be the dominant energy in the water. We’re looking at a peak in size overnight tonight - for scale, Southern NSW saw some chunky 6ft sets today - but the strongest winds within the responsible fetch were located inside the swell shadow of the Hunter curve. So I’m pegging my size expectations a little lower for Northern NSW, and with an easing trend expected throughout the day you’ll have to aim for an early surf for the most size (wave heights will retain their size for longer in the Far North than the Mid North). 

Fortunately, the low responsible for this swell is easing and tracking eastwards away from the coast, which means Saturday is looking at mainly light offshore winds in the morning and sea breezes in the afternoon. There may be a lingering sou’wester across the Lower Mid North Coast at first but I think it’ll clear quickly into the Tasman.

As for size, early morning should show 4-5ft sets at south facing beaches, easing steadily during the day (earlier in the south than in the north).

Wave heights will be smaller at beaches not open to the south, including the Tweed Coast, and apart from well exposed south swell magnets across SE Qld - which may pick up a few stray 2ft+ sets - I’m not expecting much in the way of rideable action across most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches. If you’re very patient the outer points may have a few rogue 1-1.5ft runners but in general you’ll be best off packing the car for a road trip south of the border.

Sunday is looking at much smaller as the south swell quickly dries up quickly overnight on Saturday. We may see a small degree of mid-range SE swell in the mix, originating from a modest fetch developing around the southern flank of the Tasman Low tonight, but this will be best aimed into Southern NSW. South facing beaches south of Ballina could see early 2ft+ sets but it’ll ease steadily during the day and wave heights will be much smaller elsewhere.

Don’t expect much, if anything across SE Qld. 

Sunday’s winds look a little complex with a weak trough pushing across the coastal margin ahead of an approaching southerly change across Southern NSW. This should result in some form of westerly breeze though NW winds are likely north of Yamba in the morning. Sea breezes are possible into the afternoon. 

Next week (Monday 26th onwards)

First up: today’s Tasman Low is expected to track slowly across New Zealand longitudes over the coming days, and will probably leave a trailing E’ly fetch existing western Cook Strait (the body of water separating New Zealand’s North and South Islands) over the weekend.

The fetch doesn’t look very large but wind speeds are expected to become quite strong so we could see a small E’ly swell mid-week across Northern NSW from this source (later Tues/Wed) in the 2ft range. The orientation of this fetch may not favour SE Qld so I’m not expecting much size north of the border. 

Otherwise, Sunday’s overnight S’ly change will depart quickly to the east on Monday morning, probably leaving us in easing SW tending W’ly winds across most coasts. The fetch tracking up along the Southern NSW Coast in the lee of the change looks reasonable; we should see south facing beaches build to around 3ft+ during the day, though it’ll be smaller elsewhere (and the early morning may see a lag in size, especially across the Far North Coast). There is also potential for a minor upgrade in projected surf size from this fetch; I’ll update in the comments below over the weekend.

This swell will ease quickly throughout Tuesday with winds remaining generally favourable.

Looking further ahead, and a late S’ly change later Tuesday may generate a small south swell for Northern NSW later Wednesday but nothing of any substance is expected.

The long range outlook for the end of the week and next weekend has a powerful front and low approaching Vic/SA later Wednesday and into Thursday.

Strengthening northerly winds into Thursday may generate some short range windswell for exposed north-facing coasts, but of much more interest is how this broader system will evolve as it tracks across south-eastern Australia. The latest model guidance suggests the parent low will probably reach maturity west of the Tasmanian divide, which means reduced swell prospects in our swell window - but we can’t rule out a reintensification once it tracks into the Tasman Sea either. 

It’s certainly a weather system to watch closely in the updated model runs because either way it’s going to  create a period of very windy conditions for the SE corner of the country. Let’s just hope those gales are aimed favourably within our swell window. 

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!