South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 22nd August)

Best Days: Wed: keep an eye on local winds as we're likely to see an early S'ly change across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld, plus a combo of building long period E'ly swells and some short range NE windswells. Could be a window of fun beachies, plus the outer points into the afternoon. Keep a lid on your size expectations form this east swell though. Thurs/Fri: small, clean, easing beachies across most coasts. Biggers in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld.

Recap: Saturday morning delivered some nice northern beach breaks across SE Qld as the tail end of Friday’s swell hung around and winds remained offshore early. Northerly winds then kicked up throughout the day, deteriorating surf conditions. Surf size was smaller across Northern NSW though conditions remained favourable for most of the day with W/NW winds. Slightly smaller waves throughout Sunday coincided with early light offshore winds ahead of a developing SE breeze. Today we’ve seen a small new E’ly swell arrive across the region, denoted by a minor increase in peak swell periods. However, surf size remained relatively small and freshening northerly winds have ruined conditions across most open beaches following a few hours of early light offshore winds. 

This week (Tuesday 23rd - Friday 26th)

All eyes are to the east, as we await this long period E’ly swell generated by a deep mid-latitude low that formed E/NE of New Zealand late last week.

These swells are tricky to get a handle on, because the synoptic setups that generate them are not particularly common, and the shadowing effects of New Zealand’s North Island can dramatically alter the surf potential with a minor north or south placement of the fetch. 

The leading edge of this new swell is expected to arrive on Tuesday, so we’ll probably see peak swell periods kick up to 14-15 seconds throughout the day, however I’m not expecting any major increase in surf size until late afternoon at the earliest, more likely Wednesday. And with a general northerly airstream across all coasts (except the lower Mid North Coast, which should see a SW change into the afternoon), surface conditions won’t be great. Winds should tend NW across a few locations at times but in general you’ll have to seek out a sheltered northern corner for something rideable.

Tuesday should therefore see small, peaky, inconsistent E’ly swells around the 2ft+ mark across SE Qld beaches, with smaller surf across the Northern NSW coastline south of about Ballina.

The Lower Mid North Coast may however pick up a peaky NE windswell (from today’s breezy conditions) across exposed NE facing beaches on Tuesday, with early sets in the 2ft+ range easing during the day. An afternoon session could produce some fun little beachies once the wind swings SW.

Wednesday looks very tricky all round.

First of all, we have the incoming long range E’ly swell, that’s expected to build steadily during the day. However, it has to be pointed out that this swell will probably be very inconsistent, and I can’t see there being a lot of strength in it either. Due to the shadowing from New Zealand’s North Island, the largest heights will be found across the Sunshine Coast, which I’ve pegged back to 3-4ft since Friday’s notes. We’re then looking at smaller, equally inconsistent 3ft sets across the Gold and Tweed Coasts down to about Ballina, with smaller surf as you continue to head south. 

But compounding this outlook is a brief surface trough that’s expected to develop off the coast Tuesday night. It’ll freshen N’ly winds across the region, in fact we’ll probably see peaky N'ly swell across exposed NE facing Gold and Tweed Coast beaches early morning with sets in the 2-3ft range. Slightly smaller surf from this local source is likely across the Sunshine Coast (due to the smaller fetch length) and south from Ballina (due to the less favourable coastal alignment). 

As the trough pushes offshore during the morning, winds will swing moderate to fresh S’ly in its wake before easing into the afternoon, so it’ll be well worth monitoring our surfcams and the wind stations up and down the coast as the few hours shortly afterwards could provide a neat little window of clean peaky beach breaks (though, once the southerly crops up, exposed beaches will become bumpy for a period).

Ballpark estimates are for this window of opportunity to occur between 8-11am though I'll have a look at the model guidance more closely tomorrow, and will update in the comments below.

This local NE windswell will then ease into the afternoon, whilst the long period, inconsistent E’ly groundswell fills in beneath towards its peak. Hopefully we’ll see some good waves across the outer points though I am concerned that this swell won’t have a lot of push, despite the forecast periods. I have a feeling that the large travel distance will negatively override the benefits of the larger wavelengths (I hope I am wrong!).

The rest of the week looks complex, but the overarching trend will be for a slow decline in long period E’ly swell through Thursday and Friday, and tricky winds - mainly offshore - as a troughy pattern continues across the coastal margin, probably resulting in W’ly winds to the north and SW trending S/SW winds to the south. No major surf is expected from this local troughy pattern though, possibly some short range SE energy Thursday across the Mid North Coast, and then some short range S’ly energy across the bulk of the Northern NSW coast on Friday. 

So all in all, Wednesday looks to be the pick of the forecast period though I can see there being a few windows of good surf all week - plus a few windows of disappointment too, if your schedule doesn’t lineup with the local winds. 

This weekend (Saturday 27th - Sunday 28th)

No major surf is expected this weekend.

Our E’ly swell will be fading rapidly and the only new source of energy will be from a series of modest fronts traversing the Southern Ocean, which are are expected to generate minor levels of southerly energy for Northern NSW.

Saturday’s winds look tricky with a lingering coastal trough across Northern NSW (keeping them from the south) but this should clear to the east on Sunday allowing for light winds just about everywhere. 

At this stage I’m expecting low quality 2ft+ sets across south facing beaches in Northern NSW, and smaller surf throughout SE Qld, being mainly weak residual energy from the east.

Hopefully Wednesday’s update will have an upgrade!

Next week (Monday 29th onwards)

A strong succession of Southern Ocean fronts are expected to line up below Tasmania over the weekend. They won’t be particularly well aligned, but the fetch length will be considerable, and surface winds will be pretty strong - so we should see some long period energy filling in later Monday across Northern NSW, providing set waves somewhere between 3ft and 4ft at south facing beaches into Tuesday and maybe early Wednesday.

I am doubtful that these south swells will favour SE Qld in anyway though, so it looks like next week will see a return to a lengthy spell of tiny waves north of the border. 

See you Wednesday!