South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 15th August)

Best Days: Tuesday should have a small trade swell across the Gold Coast's outer points (nothing too special though). Thursday is the pick of the week, and looks like it'll deliver some fun small E/SE swell across exposed beaches of SE Qld and Far Northern NSW.

Recap: Actually, Saturday was a little better in Northern NSW than expected. Whilst SE Qld remained tiny as forecast, a small lingering S’ly swell from Friday coincided with an abrupt improvement in local banks (at least at some coasts), providing clean 2ft sets up until the onshore wind kicked in mid-afternoon. Sunday saw smaller surf and a developing southerly breeze that wiped out most beaches relatively early in the day. Today, small surf has persisted across most coasts though we have seen a small increase in trade swell across SE Qld, mainly the Sunshine Coast (the Mooloolaba buoy seeing Hsig of 1.75m mid-late morning). A small southerly groundswell is also pushing into the Mid North Coast this afternoon, having provided very good 3-4ft waves across Southern NSW early morning. 

This week (Tues 16th - Fri 19th August)

Unfortunately the trade swell expected over the coming days has been downgraded since Friday’s forecast notes were prepared.

The basic reasoning for this is that the ridge is now modeled to be more north - i.e. further up into the Coral Sea - than Friday’s models were suggesting. This essentially pushes it a little more outside of the swell window, which reduces the side potential across all coasts, especially those south from the Gold Coast. 

The associated south-easterly breezes will also last for a shorter duration, so we’re looking at a quick up and down through Tuesday before wave heights ease from this source on Wednesday. The Sunshine Coast will see the largest surf (bumpy 3ft+ sets at open beaches by Tuesday afternoon), with smaller surf to 2-3ft across the Gold Coast, 2ft+ in Far Northern NSW then 1-2ft from Ballina down to Coffs Harbour.

Very little surf is expected across the remainder of the Mid North Coast from these trades. 

The best option on Tuesday will be the outer points, specifically those across the Gold Coast, as they’ll offer a small degree of protection from the wind and should also pick up a reasonable percentage of the overall size. Protected points across the Sunshine Coast really won't enjoy the relatively small swells and low periods. 

Otherwise, south swell magnets south of Byron should pick up some leftover S’ly groundswell on Tuesday morning (from today’s pulse) with occasional 2-3ft sets. I would be a little concerned about the possibility of this swell drying up overnight across the Mid North Coast though; it’s already trending down in Sydney and this abating energy will impact the North Coast at some point in the morning. So the Far North Coast is likely to see the most size from this source - but the fly in the ointment is the local cross-onshore breeze that’ll spoil conditions at those beaches picking up the most size.

Winds should be light and variable from Coffs south, but the chance of swell (i.e. tail end of today's south swell, or small building trade swell) are also much less likely the further south you head.

So, there's six paragraphs to explain that Tuesday really doesn’t look that great for most areas. 

On Wednesday, the south swell will be all but gone, and the trade swell will be gradually declining across SE Qld. We should see much better conditions - with a chance for early light SW winds - but the trade swell won’t have much oomph to begin with so you’ll be best off aiming for an exposed beach break in SE Qld or Far Northern NSW.

During the day, we’ll see a small E/SE swell fill into the coast, originating from a small but poorly aligned low positioned at the back of the ridge across the Northern Tasman Sea (i.e. just NW of New Zealand). The swell periods look good from this system but unfortunately it’ll be mainly aimed into Vanuatu so we won’t see much size from the resulting sideband energy; it should reinforce inconsistent 2ft to almost 2-3ft sets across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld open beaches from late Wednesday through Thursday and even into Friday (if anything, Far Northern NSW will see the most size from this swell; expect the lower end of this forecast size range across SE Qld open beaches). And smaller surf is expected south from about Ballina or Yamba. 

Winds should be light and variable on Thursday before northerlies begin to freshen on Friday.

Therefore, Thursday is the pick of the forecast period, mainly across far Northern NSW and SE Qld beach breaks. Expect smaller surf across the points. 

This weekend (Sat 20th - Sun 21st August)

The trough/low at the back of the Tasman Sea ridge is expected to meander about the waters north of New Zealand later this week, and in doing so should maintain a modest of somewhat uninspiring fetch that should keep exposed beaches kicking along with just-rideable surf through the weekend. No major size but occasional 2ft sets from this source are likely Saturday and Sunday, mainly in Far Northern NSW. 

However Saturday is at risk of being ruined by fresh northerly winds as an intense cut-off low forms off the Southern NSW coastline. Winds will eventually go SW but this probably won’t be until Sunday. So Saturday doesn’t look terribly good at this stage, no matter what swell eventuates. 

We have a few other potential swell sources for the weekend. A slow moving trough across the Southern Tasman Sea mid-week may set up a minor SE swell for Saturday across the Northern NSW Coast (low probability at this stage).

Otherwise, the models are suggesting yet another strong winteresque frontal progression across the SE corner of the state later this week, with a powerful low developing S/SW of Tasmania around Friday. This should set up a small, long period southerly swell around Sunday or Monday. 

The other low forming off Southern NSW on Saturday will most likely be the main swell contributor to the region on Sunday though, with large southerly swells a distinct possibility for Northern NSW (unlikely we’ll see much in SE Qld though due to its poor alignment). This is still quite a few days ahead though so we’ll need to firm up the specifics on Wednesday. 

Next week (Monday 22nd onwards)

Sunday's cut-off low in the Tasman looks like it’ll dominate our region for a few days, so the first half of next week looks equally activate with solid south swells for Northern NSW a very good possibility at this stage. Additionally, we may see some E/NE swell across Northern NSW, originating from the troughy infeed to the east (related to the same system). 

And the low/trough north of New Zealand later this week looks like it may redevelop NE or E of New Zealand as a powerful extra tropical system.

At this stage it’s too early to tell whether it’ll lie completely within New Zealand’s swell shadow - so we don’t yet know whether this will be a decent source of E’ly swell for all, part or neither of the Northern NSW and SE Qld coasts - it's a long, long way from the Australian mainland but it does look very impressive on the long range charts. 

But either way the synoptics are quite active for the longer term period. It’ll be a lot of fun assessing all of this over the coming days.