South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 5th August)

Best Days: Sat: easing S/SE swells and moderate W'ly tending S'ly winds. Small clean waves at outer points, lumpy beachies elsewhere. Sun: strong renewal of S/SE groundswell across Northern NSW with mainly good winds. Only small in SE Qld but fun late in the day as the swell peaks. Mon: light winds and a fun mix of swells best suited to exposed beaches in Northern NSW. Tues: easing swells and light winds. 

Recap: Well, aside from a few local exceptions (i.e. the Superbank) the last few days have been somewhat disappointing. Northern NSW saw very large surf on Thursday as expected but the wind (and sweep!) relegated surfable options to but a handful of sheltered southern corners and points. Interesting, despite showing large waves on the Tweed Coast early morning - as observed first-hand - the Gold Coast took some time to show any appreciable size, and the Sunshine Coast was almost flat to begin with! Wave heights built throughout the day but the Sunny Coast remained below expectations, with this trend holding into today. Elsewhere, we’ve seen yesterday’s stormy mess ratchet back a notch or two south of the border, and although the Gold Coast came towards at the lower end of the forecast spectrum, there have been some great waves across the southern points (see exhibit A below, taken a short time ago).  

Late walls at Snapper Rocks

This weekend (Saturday 6th - Sunday 7th August)

We should see some good waves across most coasts this weekend. 

Surf size will trend downwards into Saturday, which means the Sunshine Coast will start to drop to borderline-surfable at many beaches, with the best options at exposed northern ends. Across the Gold Coast, the usual south swell caveats will remain - outer points and northern ends your best bet, with much smaller surf elsewhere. Expect early 2-3ft+ surf at exposed spots and smaller waves elsewhere (including the Sunshine Coast).

But then as we track south of the border, surf size should still initially remain quite solid into Saturday morning. We’re still seeing a strong combination of S and SE swells across southern NSW today and although the trend is downwards across those regions now (and will occur across Northern NSW throughout Saturday), the early morning could very well see sets in the 4-6ft range at south facing beaches, mainly those south of Byron and north of Coffs Harbour. 

Expect smaller surf at beaches not open to the south (and open beaches south from Coffs), and a gradual easing trend during the day. 

As for local conditions on Saturday, synoptic winds will remain out of the south thanks to a front passing through the eastern Tasman Sea that’ll just clip the East Coast, but wind strengths won’t be too strong, and we should see a period of early W’ly winds in most regions. So open stretches will probably still be a little wobbly but it’ll be on the improve. Aim for a morning paddle for the most size and best conditions.

On Sunday morning, northern regions will initially see a slow easing trend however it’ll be replaced by a fresh pulse of S/SE groundswell - that should be in the water across the Mid North Coast early morning - generated by a strong front that tracked through the south-eastern Tasman Sea last night.

The resulting S/SE swell is expected to peak around lunchtime across the Mid North, and the afternoon across the Far North with set waves somewhere between 4ft and maybe 6ft at south facing beaches south of Byron.

Expect smaller waves elsewhere due to the strong southerly component in the swell direction.

North of Byron, we should see an afternoon peak around 3-4ft across the Tweed Coast however the Gold and Sunshine Coasts will dip out in the size department due to the swell direction; most beaches should see inconsistent 1.5-2ft sets through the afternoon (smaller in the morning) but outer points and exposed northern ends are likely to pick up bigger 2-3ft+ sets late in the day. 

Local winds look pretty good on Sunday too, mainly early light W’ly breezes tending moderate S’ly during the day. So get out and amongst it!

Next week (Monday 8th August onwards)

There are quite a few swells pupping up in the charts for the start of next week. 

Initially, Monday morning will see easing S/SE swell from Sunday afternoon’s pulse, however a second new pulse of SE swell is expected to arrive during the morning, originating from a burst of easterly gales out of western Cook Strait (the body of water seperating New Zealand's North and South Islands) this evening - see chart below.

Interestingly, the models are picking up this new pulse across Southern NSW, but not Northern NSW - even though it’s aimed a little better towards our region. 

The reasons for this are most likely related to the swell model's inability to distinguish individual swell trains when they display similar period and direction characteristics (i.e. Monday's new SE swell won’t be too far off the numbers from Sunday’s easing S/SE swell). This is a common trait within the global swell models - though mainly seen across Southern Australian coastlines during overlapping SW swell events - and such pulses can easily slip under the radar if you rely solely on the swell period and swell height charts as your surf guide. 

This minor fetch looks good in a six-hourly snapshot but the reality is that it’ll be a brief system, rotating clockwise through our swell window and generating a minor reinforcement that’ll mainly favour Northern NSW with inconsistent 3-4ft sets at some point throughout the day. I wouldn't get too excited about its potential, other than the prospect of several swells doubling up into peaky A-frames at selected beachbreaks. 

Smaller surf is expected across SE Qld on Monday; being a mix of easing swell from Sunday and minor new SE energy from the aforementioned system. Local winds should be light and variable across all coasts too, so it should be clean just about everywhere.

This swell will then ease across all regions into Tuesday, with mainly light winds during the morning, tending N’ly into the afternoon.

A secondary polar low I mentioned in Wednesday's notes - moving through the south-eastern Tasman Sea on Sunday - will generate a small renewal of S/SE swell for late Tuesday (Mid North Coast) and Wednesday (Far North Coast). I don’t think there’ll be much size to it - occ 3ft sets at south facing beaches in Northern NSW - and most other locations will be very small. Not much surf is expected across SE Qld mid-week.

Northerly winds will freshen on Wednesday then swing NW, so at this stage there’s nothing of major interest for Wednesday right now, unless you have a reliable northern corner that hasn’t been chewed out over the last few days of large S’ly swells. 

Looking further ahead, and a strong front will form off the Southern NSW coast on Thursday, generating a brief flush of southerly swell for Friday across Northern NSW (not much for SE Qld) but no major size is expected at this stage. 

Elsewhere, a tropical disturbance forming south of Fiji on Monday does show a small degree of promising on the charts but I fear it will track too quickly eastwards to be of any major benefit to us. Let’s see how the models are resolving it on Monday.

Have a great weekend!