South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 6th July)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: building S'ly swell in Northern NSW (poss solid Fri), but probably remaining small in SE Qld. Sat/Sun: Quality S'ly tending S/SE then SE (late Sun) swell across all coasts with good winds. Sunday afternoon the pick, esp in SE Qld. Mon: early light winds and strong easing SE swells. Next Wed onwards: strong S'ly swells for quite a few days. 

Recap: Tuesday produced a small fun N’ly windswell about exposed north-facing swell magnets across the Gold Coast and in Far Northern NSW, with winds mainly holding from the NW. Everywhere else was smaller. This swell eased rapidly today under a brisk offshore wind. 

This week (Thursday July 7th - Friday July 8th)

We have a couple of minor tweaks for the forecast to finish the rest of the working week, but in general the broader trend is still the same as expected on Monday. 

However, South-east Queensland will remain very small through the short term, mainly due to the swell direction holding out of the south. 

Right now we have a new Tasman Low forming off the Far South Coast of NSW. Overnight and through Thursday it’ll broaden in structure and size, encompassing most of the Tasman Sea. 

The primary fetch around this low will be on its southern and western flanks, which initially will remain outside our swell window but through Thursday we’ll see a strong S/SW fetch develop parallel to the Northern NSW Coast, with a stronger S/SE fetch further south, aimed into Southern NSW. The adjacent S/SW fetch will generate a building short range S’ly swell for Northern NSW on Thursday but the stronger S/SE fetch to the south will generate a better quality S’ly groundswell for Friday that should provide plenty of size at exposed south swell magnets. 

Wave heights should build to 3-5ft at south facing beaches in Northern NSW through Thursday (much smaller early morning, and with a lag in the north compared to the south), with a further strong increase on Friday to 4-6ft. Beaches not open to the south will however be a couple of feet smaller, and protected southern corners will be very small. 

Local winds in Northern NSW should be W/SW tending moderate to fresh SW on Thursday (a little stronger in the south), with a similar pattern for Friday though with slightly less strength. Friday afternoon may also see a little more south in the wind direction, south of Coffs Harbour.

Across SE Qld, the general view is that short range S’ly swells tend to not perform particularly well owing to the small period and unfavourable direction. Indeed, the most active fetch within our immediate swell window on Thursday will be an advancing S/SW thru’ SW flow, which is very poor (so, current expectations are for tiny to flat conditions to persist on Thursday). Well exposed south swell magnets may however pick up a couple of 1-2ft waves late afternoon as the regional south swell builds. Winds should be W/SW tending SW during the day.

On Friday, the longer period S’ly swell will push through underneath fading short range S’ly swell from Thursday, and we’ll also see some new mid-range S’ly swell push up the coast but I’m doubtful that it’ll do much in SE Qld, away from the swell magnets.

As such I’m keeping wave height estimates around 1ft for most open SE Qld beaches during Friday (with a possible small late increase), with 1-2ft waves at select outer points through the afternoon and up to 2-3ft at exposed south swell magnets. Keep your expectations low though. 

This weekend (Saturday July 9th - Sunday July 10th)

The weekend still looks really good for surf prospects. Winds should be moderate SW on Saturday (tending S/SW across parts of the Northern NSW coast, possibly fresh in the south), becoming variable on Sunday.

As for surf, we’re looking at a steady upwards trend both days towards a peak later Sunday or Monday. At the same time the swell direction will slowly swing from the S to the S/SE, then eventually the SE.

However, there’s been a slight change in the latest model guidance, with a little more S expected in the swell direction both days - which won’t really affect projected surf size in Northern NSW, but will slightly cap surf size north of the border. 

So I’m still expecting 4-6ft surf across exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW both days, with 3-4ft surf at remaining beaches and 2ft surf inside protected southern corners. Sunday afternoon is on track to see a pulse of bigger SE swell that could deliver occasional sets in the 5-6ft+ range at exposed spots. 

Across SE Qld, we’re looking at 1-2ft surf at open northern beaches and outer points on Saturday morning, building to 2-3ft during the afternoon, and then holding in this size range through most of Sunday, ahead of a mid-late afternoon pulse of bigger surf that could push up towards 3-4ft at exposed beaches late in the day (running smaller down the points). 

Sunday afternoon’s pulse is expected to originate from a fetch of gale to storm force SE winds exiting western Cook Strait (NZ) later Friday, and it’s likely to have a lot more definition than the energy prior. However I’ll be able to fine tune the arrival and likely size from this fetch on Friday.  

Next week (Monday July 11th onwards)

The broader system responsible for our weekend swell is expected to move across the North Island of New Zealand on Saturday, setting up a new E/SE fetch just north of NZ during Sunday and Monday. 

Over the last few days, the models have presented a range of possible further options for this low but it’s likely it’ll meander on the periphery of our eastern swell window for a few days - looking impressive on the synoptics but probably aimed just north of our swell window.

This suggests a reasonable period of small quality easterly groundswell through much of next week, following on from Monday morning which should see solid, but easing SE swells from Sunday afternoon’s pulse. 

Elsewhere we have a major frontal system bearing down on the SE corner of the state early next week. This is shaping up to be one of the more impressive synoptic events in quite a few weeks - it'll be a major cold outbreak, with fantastic snowfalls across the Alps - but surf potential wise, it’ll be focused mainly into Victoria and Tasmania.

We’ll probably see SW gales through the lower Tasman Sea from Tuesday afternoon onwards, which suggests an extended run of large southerly swells from Wednesday right through into next weekend and probably the start of the following week (thanks to a series of powerful secondary fronts lining up below). 

Such activity is likely to mean a lengthy period of small surf throughout SE Qld, so if you live north of the border you’ll be well advised to make the most of the weekend’s new swell.

See you Friday!