South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 1st July)

Best Days: Sat PM/Sun AM: small new S'ly swell at south swell magnets in Northern NSW, but not much elsewhere. Tues PM: chance for a small N'ly windswell in the Far North. Thurs: possible large S'ly swell building across Northern NSW, best suited to SE Qld where it'll be much smaller but cleaner. Fri: large S/SE swell with good winds. 

Recap: Our early-mid week swell eased steadily through Thursday, leaving just tiny leftovers across most beaches today with occasional 2ft sets at south swell magnets. Conditions have however been clean with offshore winds. 

This weekend (Saturday July 2nd - Sunday July 3rd)

No major changes to Wednesday’s forecaster notes. 

And in short for SE Qld surfers - we’re not expecting any surfable action north of the border, so you’ll have to pack the car for a road trip south of the border. 

A front developing off the Sydney region this evening will drive strong S/SW winds through a narrow strip adjacent to the coast, and this is expected to generate a small south swell - it’ll fill in across Northern NSW throughout the day, peaking across the Mid North Coast in the afternoon and probably the Far North Coast overnight, before trending downwards throughout Sunday. 

Unfortunately, a fair percentage of its fetch will develop inside the shadow of the Hunter curve (south from Seal Rocks) which will limit size across Northern NSW and create a wide range in wave heights between exposed beaches and remaining locations. At its peak we can expect 3ft+ sets at south swell magnets but considerable smaller surf elsewhere.

And north of Byron - especially north of the border - surf will will be very small indeed.

Local winds are looking OK; moderate SW winds in most areas on Saturday, tending fresh across the Mid North Coast and with a chance for a little more S/SW in the direction throughout the day. But Sunday looks good on the surface with light offshore winds and variable periods in the afternoon. Wave heights will trend steadily downwards during the day; a little more quickly in southern regions owing to its closer proximity to the original swell source. 

It’s hard to pick a favourable window this weekend but it’ll probably be late Saturday or early Sunday as the swell reaches a peak at exposed south swell magnets in Northern NSW; if anything the early session Sunday will probably be the best choice with slightly better winds overall. But it’s not worth rearranging your diary for. 

Next week (Monday July 4th onwards)

The first half of next week looks pretty uninspiring. With no major weather systems expected in any of our swell windows from Sunday onwards for a few days, we’re looking at generally benign ocean conditions.

An approaching cold front will fresh N/NW winds across many regions on Monday afternoon. They’ll become quite gusty through Tuesday and there’s a chance for a small N’ly windswell at north-facing swell magnets in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW late afternoon. 

A W/NW change is due currently just after dinner time but there’s an outside chance for a late window of opportunity on Tuesday if the change arrives a little earlier - I’ll have more details regarding that on Monday.

Wednesday generally looks like a write-off with tiny residual swells and strengthening W’ly winds that’ll tend gale to storm force S’ly in the south late afternoon as a new low pressure system develops off the Sydney coastline, in response to an approaching surface trough and upper pool of cold air. 

Eventual surf size will hinge around just how close the low forms to the coast and how strong surface winds are, but at this early stage we can’t rule out very large, unruly surf in the 6-8ft+ range at Northern NSW’s south facing beaches throughout Thursday, maybe bigger. However strong S/SW winds will confine the only surfable options to protected bays and points, which will be much smaller. 

Although very southerly in direction (which usually rules out SE Qld for much size), we should see a decent push of energy north of the border on Thursday, with the outer points likely to pull in 2-3ft+ sets into the afternoon. 

Additionally, a better quality S/SE swell originating from a secondary fetch developing on the southern flank of the low on Wednesday should deliver a fresh pulse of surf late Thursday (across the Mid North Coast) and into Friday (Northern NSW and SE Qld) and local conditions will be much better by this time, thanks to the Tasman Low drifting steadily east, allowing a weaker pressure gradient, and resulting in lighter winds about the coast.

As such, Friday is looking to be the pick of the forecast period at this stage with 6ft+ or more of S/SE swell at exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW (smaller elsewhere) and 3ft+ across the outer points in SE Qld. 

And the early indication for next weekend is a fun but slowly easing S/SE swell from the same source, with light variable winds and clean conditions. 

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!