South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 27th June)

Best Days: Tues PM/Wed AM: nothing great but some small waves at protected southern ends, maybe a few small runners on the outer SE Qld points. Thurs/Fri: fun tending small waves at the open beaches (best in Northern NSW) with offshore winds. Next Tuesday onwards: couple of solid S'ly swells. 

Recap: Plenty of southerly swell across the weekend. Starting from a small base early Saturday, wave heights grew steadily during the day across Northern NSW, though remained only small in SE Qld due to the swell direction. Sunday offered fluctuating size all day, anywhere between 4ft and 6ft south of the border, but SE Qld experienced a wide range of size due to the swell direction, up to 3-4ft at exposed northern ends but half the size across most beaches and along the points. Conditions were generally clean all day Sunday under a light offshore breeze. Today, surf size has pulled back a touch though the lines are still reasonably well defined as yet another pulse of S/SE swell form the weekend’s Tasman Low filters through - however freshening NW winds have confined the best waves to the backbeaches.

This week (Tuesday 28th - Friday 1st July)

The models have slightly tweaked the specs on the developing low off the southern NSW coast tonight. 

It’s still expected to form in roughly the same position, with strong S’ly winds along the coastal margin for Tuesday and two tight infeed fetches of E’ly tending SE winds wrapping into the low during the day (one close to the mainland early Tuesday, the other out in the central Tasman shortly after).

However overall we’re looking at smaller fetch sizes, weaker core strengths and a much shorter duration within our swell window. All of which will result in a much reduced swell event through the middle of this week, than what was expected in Friday’s notes.

That being said, Tuesday will certainly see a lot of size across Northern NSW by the afternoon, as this low winds up close to the mainland and pushes a captured fetch right inside our near-south swell window. Unfortunately, the swell it generates will be accompanied by southerly gales so those locations picking up the bulk size won’t be rideable, however we should see some fun (small) afternoon options at sheltered points.

SE Qld will offer clean conditions along the points under a brisk S/SW wind but the acute southerly swell direction won’t allow much size to bend into the coast.

The trailing fetch around the bottom of the low (later Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday) look much better for surf potential, but I’m concerned at the speed this system is to exit our swell window. As such I fear this will be a rapid upwards event on Tuesday - with a lot of wind - and then a rapid downwards trend on Wednesday, under a lingering SW tending S’ly breeze, with only smaller residual swells to pad out the second half of the week.

So, as for size - south facing beaches in Northern NSW should reach 6ft+ by late Tuesday (completely blown out, though) with smaller 3-4ft surf at remaining beaches and 2ft+ surf inside protected southern corners. Exposed northern ends in SE Qld should pick up solid 3-4ft sets late Tuesday (again, very bumpy and wind affected) but the southern Gold Coast points will probably be your best choice with 2ft to maybe 2-3ft sets through the last couple of hours of the days.

Expect much smaller waves up until lunchtime at least.

Wednesday’s easing trend may very well begin with some 4-6ft sets early morning at south facing beaches in Northern NSW, but an easing trend to 3-4ft is likely by the afternoon. Across SE Qld, the outer points will again mainly hover in the 2ft range (perhaps a few 2-3ft sets at dawn if we’re lucky) but will trend downwards to 1-2ft during the day. You may do a little better at exposed northern ends with an early light W/SW breeze. But don’t expect anything amazing.

The rest of the week has no new swell sources on the cards, so the easing trend will continue throughout this period, favouring exposed beaches in Northern NSW. Light variable winds are expected on Thursday, becoming fresh W’ly with a frontal passage on Friday - but it’ll be pretty small by this time. So aim for a beach break on Thursday while there’s still a reasonable amount of size on offer (early 3-4ft sets in Northern NSW, easing to 2-3ft during the day). Surf size across most SE Qld beaches will probably be about half the size. 

This weekend (Saturday July 2nd - Sunday July 3rd)

A new Tasman Low is expected to develop from Friday afternoon onwards, but current model projections suggest it’ll be half-baked version of last weekend’s system. 

Core wind strengths don’t look very promising, and the fetch looks like it’ll be much closer to the coast which usually results in a much more directional south swell, generating a broader range in wave heights across the region and bugger-all size in SE Qld. And a lot less friendly local winds (for Saturday at least, south of the border). 

Peak surf size - and local wind strength - is due on the Saturday with smaller, more settled conditions expected on Sunday - but at this stage it’s unlikely we’ll see anything notable throughout SE Qld. 

So right now, if you’re planning your weekend’s waves it looks like Sunday’s going to deliver the best options, and really only south of the border. You’ll definitely get wet on Saturday in Northern NSW but protected southern corners will be your best option as this windy, short range southerly swell builds in size.

More on this in Wednesday’s update.

Next week (Monday July 4th onwards)

Next week looks much better with an amplifying long wave trough expected to drive a series of strong Southern Ocean fronts through the lower Tasman Sea around Monday, generating solid back-to-back south swells from Tuesday through almost the entire rest of the week.

The first few pulses will probably be accompanied with quite a bit of S/SW wind but there should be more than enough size to get the Northern NSW points fired up, and possibly some small waves across SE Qld too.

Either way, the long term outlook remained focused on our south swell window, which means small surf prospects (at best) for SE Qld, and a wide range of opportunities in Northern NSW depending on your coast’s preference for south swells.

I’ll have more info on the specifics of the weekend’s swell and next weekend’s offerings, on Wednesday.