South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 24nd June)

Best Days: Sat: windy building S'ly swell during the day (small early), best suited to protected spots in Northern NSW. Only small in SE Qld though. Sun: solid S'ly tending S/SE groundswell with light offshore winds, smaller in SE Qld but should be fun thru' the PM. Mon: solid S/SE swell with mainly good winds. Wed/Thurs/Fri: possibly large E/SE swell from another Tasman Low. 

Recap: Thursday’s S’ly swell renewal across Northern NSW delivered great waves with offshore winds and 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches, marginally higher than expectations (smaller surf at remaining beaches). However, as expected the swell dropped steadily into today, with clean conditions persisting under freshening offshore winds. Surf size has remained tiny in SE Qld.

This weekend (Saturday 25th - Sunday 26th)

We’ve had a slight downgrade for the weekend’s swell. 

This isn’t so much because the developing Tasman Low through Saturday is meant to be any weaker in strength - it’s not - however its primary fetch is now expected to be aimed slightly more away from the coast (up towards Fiji) which means we’ll be seeing mainly sideband, than direct energy across the Northern NSW and SE Qld coasts.

Initially, strong SW thru’ S/SW winds will develop off the greater NSW coast tonight. This fetch looks poorly aligned at first glance (aimed away from the coast) however the sheer breadth, coverage and strength of this system can’t be overruled for sideband swell potential. I’ve seen more than a couple of similar systems perform much better than expected under these scenarios - even north of the border.

Otherwise, in addition to the broad coastal fetch there are two other swell generating regions developing within this system that are of much greater interest to me. The first is in the southern/central Tasman Sea in the early hours of Saturday morning (generating a new S/SE swell for Sunday), and a strong secondary front wrapping around the primary low, again in the central /Southern Tasman Sea, in the early hours of Sunday morning. This last fetch is the best of the three but the swell it generates won’t arrive until Monday, so I’ll discuss it a little further below.

Back to the weekend’s surf potential, and the main features are the strength and longevity from an otherwise poorly aligned S/SW fetch through the western Tasman Sea. This suggests a wide range in surf size, with south swell magnets picking up considerably more size than everywhere else (even more so than usual). However as outlined above I am certainly of the mindset that SE Qld - which ordinarily dislikes south swells, and would be ruled out under this pattern - could perform a little better than expected this weekend. And that’s worth considering as local winds will be quite good for many locations. 

Saturday’s upwards trend will be starting from a very small  base (especially north of Ballina) but I have downgraded my peak size expectations, owing to the less favourable position of the fetch. South facing beaches in Northern NSW should approach the 5-6ft+ mark by the afternoon, with smaller surf at remaining open beaches around 3-4ft+, and much smaller surf inside protected southern corners. 

For SE Qld, I suspect most beaches will probably build from a tiny start to 1-2ft throughout the day however some outer points may pull in some 2-3ft sets late afternoon if we’re lucky. Moderate to fresh SW winds should provide good conditions at these spots but exposed northern ends won’t cope as well. Winds will be strong and gusty south of Byron. 

Sunday looks much better right across the board with light variable winds expected for most of the day, and the secondary S/SE groundswell should lift surf size throughout the day - we may be a little undersized early morning. However lunchtime thru' the afternoon should see solid 6ft+ sets at south facing beaches in Northern NSW (3-5ft at remaining open beaches, 2ft+ southern ends), and even SE Qld should see some good potential filling in throughout the day. The early morning size lag is more likely here (than in Northern NSW) but from lunchtime into the afternoon we could see some 2-3ft+ sets across the outer points and open beaches, but with smaller waves running down the points. It’ll be nice and clean with the variable breeze.

So all in all, it’s a tricky weekend so keep your expectations a little lower than normal - but most coasts should have some fun waves this weekend - quite sizeable at exposed beaches south of Byron, but fun options across SE Qld on Sunday. 

Next week (Monday 27th onwards)

I really like the look of Sunday morning’s wrap around the primary Tasman Low in the central/southern Tasman Sea. This slingshot effect will be better aimed within our swell window, and the fetch will be working on an already active sea state. This should generate a very good quality pulse for Monday. 

South facing beaches across Northern NSW will once again see the most size (5-6ft+ sets south of Byron) and with a weak high pressure belt across the coast it’s looking clean with light variable winds tending NW into the afternoon. With the swell direction swinging more S/SE there should also be some great waves across the regional points in the morning, though a little smaller in size. 

Across SE Qld, we should also see some good waves with inconsistent 2-3ft sets across the outer points and clean conditions under a (mainly) light variable breeze. South swell magnets will be a couple of feet bigger so there’ll be plenty of options, banks pending.

Just one potential curveball for Monday - we’re expecting a vigorous front to cross the Qld coast later in the day (and Northern NSW overnight), and the models are spinning up a small temporary surface low on the frontal boundary, just east of Brisbane late in the day.

To the north of the low, we’re likely to see strong N’ly winds - and if the models drag that further south over the weekend’s updates, it could very well impact SE Qld beaches with devil winds. Additionally, it could also generate a brief peaky NE windswell for late Monday or early Tuesday (depending on positions and timing), which could be a positive. I’ll update over the weekend as new data comes to hand.

Otherwise, the outlook for the mid-week period is tricky with another Tasman Low expected to form off the Sydney coast during Tuesday. Currently model guidance has this system forming a 50kt E’ly fetch aimed into the Northern NSW coast around Tuesday afternoon, which would theoretically generate a potentially very large E/SE swell for Northern NSW  on Wednesday and Thursday.

But we’re still a long time away from these developments, and it’s very likely that the model output will shift around between now and then.

Regardless, we have a very dynamic period ahead for the coast with large swells and windy conditions quite likely from Wednesday thru’ Friday. And to cap it off, another classic winter frontal progression is expected to approach from the west later next weekend, bringing the chances of yet another strong Tasman Low - and sizeable windy surf - to the region for next weekend and early next week.

Winter, eh? It keeps on delivering, and we're only four weeks in. Have a great weekend, see you Monday!