South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 15th June)

Best Days: Thurs: good waves at the points in the north. Light variable winds south from Byron with better options at open beaches. Fri: fun leftover beachies in the north, with possibly a strong long period S'ly swell building across exposed beaches in Northern NSW during the day. Sat: light winds and a fun combo of swells at open beaches. Mon/Tues/Wed: great small/mod NE tending E/NE swell with offshore winds. Size easing throughout the period.

Recap: Plenty of punchy trade swell across the region, with easy 4-5ft sets across open Gold and Tweed Coast beaches both days, and bigger surf on the Sunshine Coast, but with fresh SE winds (a little lighter today). Smaller south from Byron with lighter winds. 

This week (Thursday 16th - Friday 17th)

No changes to the forecast notes issued Monday.

The active trade belt through the northern Tasman Sea and Coral Sea is slowly easing and contracting to the north. This means we’ll see a gradual easing in surf size over the coming days. 

As the ridge relaxes, local winds will ease and this will allow conditions to clean up - however without the presence of a synoptic offshore wind, many spots (mainly exposed beaches north from Yamba and into SE Qld) will retain plenty of wobble through the lineup. 

Surf size should retain strong sets through Thursday morning, in a similar size range as per today: 3-5ft across the open Gold Coast beaches (a little smaller running down the points), and slightly bigger at exposed Sunshine Coast beaches, though messy under the lingering SE breeze. Wave heights will again taper off south of Byron though winds should be light and variable from Yamba to Seal Rocks; possibly a late northerly trend in the far south.

A slight easing trend is then expected into the afternoon.

It’s also worth pointing out that a small southerly groundswell is due to push across Northern NSW on Thursday (it reached Southern NSW today), and south swell magnets south of Byron may see occasional 3ft sets. However the trade swell will probably continue to dominate the northern region - this new south swell will be best seen across the Mid North Coast.

On Friday a weak front will rear up from the west, freshening N’ly tending NW winds about the Northern NSW coast, though the main strength will be south of Yamba. Light variable winds tending E’ly are more likely from Ballina up through SE Qld.

Surf size will continue to ease however we should still see plenty of decent waves across the various regional points; open beaches in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW should see 3-4ft sets early, becoming a little smaller into the afternoon. Expect smaller surf south from Yamba. 

Also expected in the water on Friday is a wildcard long period southerly groundswell. The low and front generating this new swell tracked below Tasmania today, displaying an impressive 50kt+ fetch that unfortunately wasn’t very well aligned within our swell window. However, the sheer breath and length of the fetch should still allow for a decent level of spread back into the Tasman Sea, and the long period associated with this swell - 19 seconds and upwards - should magnify wave heights at south swell magnets during the day. 

At this stage we should see the leading edge of this swell in the water across the Mid North Coast sometime early-mid morning, but there’s likely to be a delay across the Far North Coast until late morning or lunchtime, with the swell then expected to peak across the Mid North Coast mid-late afternoon (late afternoon and into the evening across the Far North Coast). 

At this stage set waves could very well approach anyway between 4ft and maybe 6ft at times at reliable south swell magnets south of Byron through the afternoon, though locations with less southerly exposure will be considerably smaller (they’ll still be seeing plenty of leftover trade swell). However with expectations of a northerly breeze, this south swell could produce some good waves at those locations who enjoy this combo.

Unfortunately, the source and direction of this swell won’t favour SE Qld - most beaches will dip out but the region’s handful of exposed south swell magnets may pick up occasional 3ft bombs (providing some interesting peaks in and amongst the trade swell). 

This weekend (Saturday 18th - Sunday 19th)

I like the look of Saturday much more than Sunday.

As discussed in Monday’s notes, we’ve got a complex synoptic situation unfolding - essentially a smaller version of the setup that produced last week’s epic waves. We may very well see an ECL develop off the NSW coast at some point, though the broader pattern is not going to produce anywhere near the same kind of surf we saw last time.

Instead, we’ll kick off the weekend with a light variable winds associated with a broad trough along the coast that’ll develop slowly over the following forty-eight hours. Saturday should see a mix of easing S’ly groundswell from Friday (early 3-5ft sets at reliable south swell magnets south of Byron, easing to 2-3ft+ during the day, smaller elsewhere), plus some leftover E’ly swell in the 3ft range across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, smaller near 2ft+ across the Mid North Coast.

On Sunday, the trough will start to develop further - possibly with a small low forming close to the border - and the NE infeed is likely to kick up a large, rapid increase in short range NE windswell.

Unfortunately it’ll be accompanied with driving onshore winds and heavy rainfall, and the whole pattern will quickly extend southwards during the day, with westerlies probably kicking in across many regions around dinner time. I’m not 100% on the timing of this right now (and will update on Friday) but at this stage Sunday looks like a write-off across most coasts.

Next week (Monday 20th onwards)

So, the models are still priming for some kind of dynamic development in the south-western Tasman Sea later Sunday and into Monday. 

But comparing this to last week’s setup: it looks like a smaller, faster version. Which essentially means less fetch in the swell window for a shorter period of time, which will translate to smaller surf at the coast.

That being said, the westerly outflow once the trough drops south will rapidly clean up conditions across all coasts. In fact we’re looking at westerlies all the way through the middle of the week, so conditions should be excellent.

As for size, Monday morning will see the biggest waves with open beaches probably holding 3ft+ sets (Sunday’s late increase will probably peak higher than this - maybe 4-6ft at some exposed spots in Northern NSW - but likely under the cover of darkness). Wave heights may also be a smidge bigger across the Mid North Coast, owing to the longer fetch length within its swell window.

Surf size will then ease throughout the day, down to 2-3ft by the afternoon.

The fetch will retreat eastward on Monday and this isn’t good for swell production but the fetch will still extend a reasonable distance out into the South Pacific. So, clean 2-3ft surf at most open beaches is likely on Tuesday, maybe a little bigger across the Mid North Coast.

Slowly easing E’ly swell is then expected from Wednesday onwards, and at this stage it’s hard to be confident whether we’ll see a return southerly swell from the bottom of the trough (or the possible ECL). Exposed south swell magnets in Northern NSW may pick up the outer bands of swell energy later Tuesday and into Wednesday, however at this stage the primary fetch looks to be either W/SW in direction, or partially shadowed from the Hunter curve. So I’m reserving my judgement for now.

See you on Friday!