South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 10th June)

Best Days: Sat: fun beachies. Sun: afternoon options on the Goldy points. Mon thru' Fri: good mix of trade swell and E'ly groundswell, best suited to the protected points.

Recap: Our epic run of east swell dropped considerably into Thursday but has still been producing great waves right across the region. A slightly smaller but still very workable reinforcing pulse is continuing to provide excellent surf across the open beaches and reefs. However, the sets are very inconsistent.

Moffat Beach this afternoon

This weekend (Saturday 11th - Sunday 12th)

A weak southerly change will push across the region tonight, but no major strength is expected in the surface wind field. As such, light variable conditions are expected in most regions on Saturday. 

Surf wise, we’re looking at a slight smaller, slightly less consistent version of today. Most exposed beaches across all coasts should manage occasional 2ft to almost 3ft sets with a slight easing trend during the day.

On Sunday, a new ridge will strengthen across the coast, driving gusty southerly winds across most regions (Northern NSW should see this change before sunrise, but the Sunshine Coast and possibly the Gold Coast may see a slight lag).

Aside from some small lingering E’ly swell from Saturday, we’ll also see a short range S’ly tending S/SE swell across the region though those locations picking up the most size will be heavily wind affected - especially in Northern NSW.

The main beneficiary of this setup will be the outer Gold Coast sand bottom points, and a few other similar locations in Far Northern NSW that can pick up short range south swell to a reasonable degree, and also offer some protection from the gusty conditions. Don’t expect a lot of size at these spots; the outer sections may see 3ft+ surf through the afternoon but size will taper off as you work your way along the points. 

Everywhere else will be much smaller due to the swell direction; however the pre-existing E’ly swell may offer some small options inside protected southern corners. It'll be bigger but heavily wind affected south of the border. 

Next week (Monday 13th onwards)

We’ve got a great summeresque (!) pattern of waves ahead.

A stationary ridge across the Coral Sea is expected to build trade swells across the region from Monday onwards, in fact we’re looking at decent waves persisting right through until the end of the week.

Initially there’ll be a lot of wind with it (out of the SE) so the protected points will be your best choice, but we should start to see the ridge weaken later in the week, allowing the winds to ease.

Surf size will be biggest in the northern regions (i.e. Sunshine Coast) grading smaller as you head south. Surf size should hold anywhere in the 4-5ft range all week, with the upper end of this size range (at exposed beaches) more likely during the first half of the week whilst the swell source is closer to the mainland. The surf will be a little smaller across the points. 

Expect smaller surf with a little less wind south of the border. 

One other swell source will also be in the water next week though it may be a little hard to detect. We’re expecting another pulse of E thru’ E/NE swell to arrive on Monday, originating from today’s impressive developments north of New Zealand, being the remnants of the Tasman trough. This is generating a quality pulse of swell that may not quite be in the water at first light but should start to build from mid-late morning onwards, reaching a peak into the afternoon.

This swell will be very inconsistent, offering occasional 3ft+ sets at exposed beaches by late afternoon. The E/NE fetch out north of New Zealand will continue to (very) slowly track eastwards but remain in a positive swell production environment. The only downside is that as it draws further away from the coast, the size potential is slightly reduced and the inconsistency levels will increase. But, the long range groundswell produced should be of a high quality. Expect 2-3ft surf from this source through Tuesday, a smidge smaller through Wednesday and smaller again into Thursday and Friday.

For what it’s worth, Northern NSW may also see several long period south swells throughout next week, thanks to an active frontal progression south of Tasmania later this weekend and into the early part of next week. Although poorly aligned for our swell window, the sheer breadth of the fetch and its lengthy duration should ensure we see a small spread back up the mainland, favouring south swell magnets with inconsistent 2-3ft sets (from Wednesday onwards).