Fun S/SE swell Thurs; large clean NE tending E/NE swell from Sun onwards
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 1st June)
Best Days: Thurs: moderate S/SE swell filling in across south facing beaches in Northern NSW during the day (small early). Sun/Mon/Tues: large NE tending E/NE swell across all coasts, with light winds developing (following a strong onshore blow Sat).
Recap: Tiny conditions both days across both coasts. A small new S/SE swell has slowly built across Northern NSW’s south facing beaches today, but moderate southerly winds have kept quality to a minimum. Size seems to be around the 2ft mark at these exposed spots, with tiny surf continuing elsewhere.
This week (Thursday 2nd - Friday 3rd June):
So while you’re staring wide-eyed at the forecast graphs for the weekend and early next week, let’s not forget that there’s a new S/SE swell expected across Northern NSW on Thursday.
This swell was generated by a reasonably strong front that pushed through the eastern Tasman Sea earlier this week. Although we’re only expected to see sideband energy from this system, core winds did reach 30-35kts and the resulting swell periods should push into the 10-11 second range as the swell reaches a peak.
The main problem is the expected timing of the swell. The latest model data has just held back the peak until after lunch across the Mid North Coast, and very late in the day across the Far North Coast. So keep your size expectations in check for any surf session before lunch, especially in the Far North and SE Qld regions. Wave heights should reach 3-4ft+ at south swell magnets south of Byron Bay late in the day, up to 3ft+ on dusk across the Tweed and 1-2ft across most open SE Qld beaches just before dinnertime (a little bigger at south swell magnets).
Local winds look OK in most areas with a light variable flow, but we are expecting easterly to begin developing across SE Qld throughout the afternoon (in preparation for the more significant synoptic developments over the coming days) and this may spoil surface conditions north of the border.
But in general most locations south of Byron should be OK.
Friday looks relatively uninspiring. Thursday’s S/SE swell will be easing (maybe some early 3ft sets at south swell magnets south of Byron, smaller elsewhere as per Thursday’s breakdown) but the dominant feature will be a developing trough that’s expected to strengthen E/NE tending NE winds across all regions at some point.
It’s not really a synoptic pattern that’s conducive for any favourable protected corners - we’ll see an associated increase in short range windswell as and when the winds increase, but to be honest if you have to surf on Friday I’d be inclined to aim for a dawn session, prior to the onset of the onshores (and really only in Northern NSW too). That’s if they’re not already up and blowing at first light anyway, which is certainly a possibility.
This weekend (Saturday 4th - Sunday 5th)
There’s been a few curveballs in the model data over the last few days, and some upgrades and downgrades, but the good news is that the wind outlook remains much the same as per Monday’s notes.
That is: Saturday will be a write-off with building NE swells and freshening NE winds across all coasts.
The trend will be up, up up all day - probably north of 6ft+ at exposed beaches by late afternoon, but let’s wait and see how Friday’s model runs are handling the situation.
What’s really interesting about Sunday is that the trough is expected to push just offshore, enough for a return westerly flow to develop across the coastal margin, but all the while maintaining E/NE thru NE gales in our immediate and mid-range swell window.
Let’s not beat around the bush: this is an incredible synoptic setup on paper. A broad, long, slow moving belt of E/NE gales positioned generally west of New Caledonia is a rare event, and one that favours particular sections of the East Coast, though Southern NSW is the region that always comes up trumps under these charts.
The difficulty for Sunday is (1) estimating just how big the surf will reach (because the fetch is mainly aimed at locations south of us), and (2) working out what surfable options there are under these conditions.
Unlike large south or south-east swells, which offer smaller, more manageable conditions inside sheltered southern corners and point breaks, groundswells from this direction tend to blanket the coast in a relatively uniform size. And sheltered corners (let alone open beaches) often can’t handle the size, meaning that there’s only a couple of workable options across vast tracts of coastline.
So, I’ve slightly downgraded wave heights from Monday’s outlook, and it’s worth noting that surf size is likely to decrease with increasing northerly latitude. Exposed locations across the Gold and Tweed Coasts should reach a peak somewhere in the 8ft+ range on Sunday afternoon (likely a little smaller on the Sunshine Coast), up to 8-10ft+ across the Northern Rivers and possibly even bigger at exposed spots further south to Seal Rocks.
Next week (Monday 6th onwards)
Model guidance has been pretty consistent with a slow SE track for the broader trough this weekend and into next week. This will focus the fetch towards southern locations (actually, NE Tasmania looks like it’ll pick up the biggest waves from this entire event).
But the good news is that the fetch is expected to stretch right back to almost Fijian longitudes early next week, which, while not perfectly aligned for our region, should maintain a healthy spell of solid E/NE tending E’ly swell for much of the week.
SE Qld is likely to peak overnight Sunday, and then ease into Monday but levelling out in the 4-6ft range throughout the day and into Tuesday (again, a little smaller on the Sunshine Coast). A similar trend is expected further south but with bigger wave heights probably holding near 6-8ft+ across the Mid North Coast through Monday, easing to 5-6ft+ through Tuesday.
Smaller but still strong E’ly swell should then pad out Wednesday and Thursday; once again bigger across the Mid North Coast but getting smaller as you head north.
And conditions look fantastic this entire period with moderate offshore winds, as a broad low occupies Bass Strait, fed by the NE infeed from the Tasman trough.
Even Friday - despite looking to be the smallest day of the week - should still maintain clean 3-4ft+ surf across open Mid North Coast beaches under an offshore breeze. But again, expect smaller surf across northern regions.
One other aspect about this system that the models aren’t picking up every well right now is a return southerly swell from the Bass Strait low, which will eventually move back out into the Tasman Sea. This will probably favour Southern NSW but we certainly can’t rule out the potential for a strong concurrent S’ly swell across Northern NSW later next week (poss later Thurs, more likely Friday and/or Saturday). I’ll have more on that in Friday’s notes.
Comments
Hot digity dawg! What a synoptic setup we have here...
Finally some waves for the Sunny Coast.
In my experience, me thinks the sling shot affect could mean swell heights come in above forecast expectations for SE Qld.
Certainly a possibility Don. I'm just trying to anticipate the model trends for the coming days, and given how early they picked this system, it's more likely (IMO) for a downgrade. Which it's done a couple of times already (but then bounced back!).
But even the same strength but with a minor adjustment in the wind direction field (to the south) would result in smaller surf across northern locales. So I'm trying to find the line of best fit.
Either way, a call for 8ft+ on the Gold Coast is in the top 5% of swell events.
"And sheltered corners (let alone open beaches) often can’t handle the size, meaning that there’s only a couple of workable options across vast tracts of coastline. "
Thats really the most important sentence in the forecast.
And the next most important thing, unmentioned, is how much of the inshore bathymetry is left after the weekend for next weeks leftover swell.
If the bars are out near the shark nets and the Points are gutted it's going to be a long week.
Good point re: shark nets. Wonder how they'd handle an event like this?
And if Ballina had installed the shark barrier ...would it survive this swell ?
very much doubt it Udo.
but regular shark nets such as installed on the Gold and Sunshine coasts seem to be able to absorb these events. Don't think they remove them beforehand do they?
They removed them before the Winston swell from both the GC and Sunny Coast.
http://www.mygc.com.au/shark-nets-removed-se-qld-beaches-due-large-swell
No they stay...but the Ballina one is fixed to the the ocean floor ..others are not I think ?
I saw the shark nets wash up on the Goldy a couple of times (within three years) during big swell events.
This swell is right through my exam period, dammit.
1 week early. :(
what do you mean Dammit?
where did you think you were going to surf ld?
The hype over this when in reality there will be a couple of novelty/workable options available and then a long barren period ahead of bank rebuilding is mystifying.
To refresh memories along lines of what FR is saying see here: https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/coasts-waterways/beach/waves-sites/tw...
Look at the most recent largest waves at this time of year.
The 2009 and 2012 events were soul destroying bank busting and sand dune destroying events. Followed by a long period of fucked up sand and very ordinary surf. I really REALLY hope this weekend turns out different, but, suspect we'll see some 6 ft drop offs at the end of tracks come early next week.
Well at least next week I'd be able to drive around, road trip even.
Monday onward, I would have thought there'd be a few options to suss out but I'm very short of time to do that. Now I miss the swell and get the shit banks.
there might be some giant lefts off the back of Cape Byron Sun/Mon.
paddle out at Little Wategoes between the Cape Bombie and the Chair and go around the Cape.
maybe the left of the rocks at the shawsy for the less adventurous
Or under the bridge baby food
With the northerly component in the swell it might be better suited to the bommie south of the spit.
Like a few people with mentioned it's a shame that the swell event this large may only offer a a few options however it is always exciting to go to your favourite spot and see how large the waves actually are. I'm betting the Sunny coast will be busy but there will definitely be so,e excellent options regardless off sand bank movement on ztuesday and Wednesday. My boss let me switch my RDO from next Friday to next Tuesday I'm frothing at the mouth! Cheers Ben your forecasts are always well detailed and have certainly got me excited ! I wonder if a certain bar break will be as crowded as it was during cyclone Winston or could possibly be well maxed out on Sunday/Monday? If only you had access to a helicopter for the day to check everywhere! Tow crews will be rubbing their hands together on the GC for a few offshore bombing options!!
This swell event feels like it will be like a trip to vegas. Lots of excitement, a lot of debauchery, but in the end it will just lead to disappointment and a severe case of post party doldrums...
Haha!
Thanks Ben! for your forecast's you do an amazing job the detail is awesome, so much better than a graph and an arrow for the wind. On a mon, wed and fri I'm checking the website multiple times around 5 frothing for the LRF to drop, it's pretty much my bible keep up the good work,
now just have to figure out where to surf!
A questions, gents and ladies
I'll be on the North Coast for a week from Monday. Wetsuit wise, will I be ok with my 2mm jacket/boardies and my 2mm s/s steamer? I'm guessing that SSTs are 22-23C.
On a side note, I was prepared for some groveling, but it looks like my soon to be picked up Bourton swallow tail step up will come in handy.
that'll be fine.
Will these NE winds create upwelling along the inshore east coast?
How cold are you used to? When i came back up from the south coast seq was boardies all year. 23-ish is about right tho.
To the naysayers can you describe a good swell for seq /nsw?
Thanks Freeride and Blow-in.
Used to pretty damn cold (Wellington), and just getting back into booties and a 4/3 after a warm summer. I'll probably be fine in boardies/jacket, except for cold offshore mornings.
Today's S/SE swell is already showing nicely at Coffs with sets around the 3ft mark. Looks reasonably clean too.
northerly is up and into it here.
Northerly is up - really? No coastal AWSs have a northerly flow at all. They're either light W'ly (Yamba), variable (Evans) or S/SW (Cooly, Byron).
Though Byron did see gusty S'ly tending E'lies around the time of your post, with a passing cell. They're back to light S/SW now.
look at the Ballina obs between 8 and 9 when I posted.
wind swung around the compass since then but there's a really funky gurgle on it.
Hmmm, I never look at Ballina obs for local winds. I can see a light N'ly flow was recorded there - but it's under 5kts. Surely it wasn't stronger at the coast? Very odd.
it's not a reliable source......sometimes the boundary layer for onshore or offshore flows is seaward of the airport.
But then again neither is Cape Byron or Evans. Cape Byron being at elevation always seems to have extra velocity or is prone to more local squall effects and Evans is too far away.
in this case the northerly flow was stronger at the coast and the AWS at the airport just picked it up.
then a sort of cloud/squall feature tracked inland and the wind clocked around.
pretty typical at the start of these events.
With the swell having a bit of north in it,,...Sunday, Double island point be an option or size still be a factor. Been waiting for over 30 odd years for all elements to come together to ride her in all her glory.
The further north of the Goldy you go, the smaller the swell and the more east...
Yip good point. I'm hoping that's the case cause it will be maxing anywhere south until Monday/Tuesday
Hi Freesurfer. I would take the gamble and go for it. It may not be the best swell in the last ten years or anything but there will definitely be waves running down that sandbank. The last big swell, TC Winston there were over 200 4wds there on the weekend and it was only waist high. During the week leading up to it it was pumping and uncrowded. You may find that the disappointment from TC Winston stops allot of those 4wds heading up there this time and it could be surprisingly good. Half the mission is the anticipation of getting there and what it's going to be like anyway and its a cool mission driving up the beach. Take a gamble and it may pay off, good luck! If it turns out to be crap there is a more reliable (allot more crowded option) not too far away. DI is best at low tide incoming so I'd plan for that. If it's small check around the rocks at the tip, there may be something a little bigger
The D.I hype is out of control not one of you rookies has considered that a westerly is devil wind there. Not sure where this exposure is coming from but as freesurfer has mentioned hes been waiting 30 years and unfortunantly will be waiting at least until the next swell. May be a a couple of cleaner days next week there by whixh time swell would have backed leaving perfect log waves and a whole bunch of frustrated shortboarders.
Can someone ban this kook before he blows up every other break on the east coast? There's leading a horse to water and then there's holding its head under until it expires...
Nick T mate are you serious?!
Anything you've left out there that you need to add?
Fuck me dead
Anyone been to Narrowneck lately? The workers must be shitting themselves right now
the d.i hype is all about people thinking they might be able to score 3-4ft point waves with fuck it all crew on it but the reality is its a fucking hipster log wave with every douche from noosa to byron trying to surf it like they are fucking rasta. more open vest surfers then the pass on a 1ft day in summer
Both funny and frightening at the same time mbl88. That's pretty much my idea of hell. I was scared at hipster, throwing up at log wave, and open vest had me convulsing in hysteria on the floor.
Another overhyped "swell event", another round of fuck sticks come out of the woodwork naming breaks between Bongaree and Baffle Creek. But then every time I paddle out anywhere on the Sunshine Coast these days, and look around me, I shouldn't be surprised.
bongaree will be pumping
Yes, a highly underrated swell magnet. You should have seen it last Tuesday. It was cranking. I would have paddled out, too, but I only had my 7'2, and it was clearly calling for more. By the time I drove home and grabbed my 8' Rawson, the tide had turned so I missed it.
I grew up on Bribie, I have actually surfed Bongaree.
or maybe I just dreamed it after a few too many bucket bongs.
Mate that's pretty uncool exposing Baffle Creek, that bank at the mouth is one of the last secret spots between D.I and Agnes that pumps with an easterly swell. Locals won't be pleased.
DI will be all time!
Fill your 4x4 with mates and get up there.
Wow,wtf. As if Di is a secret. Couple of fun ones, get a grip, or another tatt to make yourself feel ....yourself... Kook!!! Been surfing all over the world and a lot of spots farther north of the spot we're talking about close to land and out to sea,. I don't see the prob in mentioning or saying what I said,you've lost thepplot, and it pisses me of how I m getting annoyed with a wanker like you.
If it makes you feel any better my comment was directed at the dickhead who replied to you, but cheers for personal attack! Nobody said it was a secret spot, it's just (un)common courtesy not to discuss the specifics of a particular break on the internet...
Thanks mate I agree. So many haters, DI is not a secret. To someone who has been waiting 30 years I say give it a go and they may be surprised.
Faaaaark,wasn't even going to mention the outside point that I bet you don't even know about. I've accepted the fact that Di is blown out of control like noosa, but kooks like you stop there, sooo neck up parrot ✌
Winds will feck most north facing point breaks from Fraser Island south for the majority of this swell event based on latest forecasts.
It's beachies or south facing headlands IMO.
And good luck finding a beachie bank that's not one 40km long stormbar after Sunday.
Bom now calling for an ECL to develop in the trough line.
the hype over this is truly mystifying.
it's like surfers collectively are getting stupider.
In the middle of Nowhere atm ,heard about some larger then the norm corduroy line's and I'm trying to plan a mellow trip surfing with the fam and get jacked by a bunch of fucking half wit wanna be surf God's who thing they know what's up,
You wouldn't happen to be Californian would you?
.
Love the early 5/10 for the Sunny Coast, someone got a little over-excited seeing actual waves for the first time in a while haha.
The sunshine coast reports & ratings just don't make sense majority of the time, pretty funny actually. Overcalls, undercalls. Sucks to those driving any distance. It's not a subjective wave height issue etc it's accuracy.
so wheres sheepdog? surely this cannot be rated as a significant swell event until sheepie argues with local observers over where will b good and which of his friends surfed where....all from the comfort of his armchair 4000km from the action.
Anyone following Dorsal Watch facebook...Christ if you have a offshore bombie/reef in mind over this swell...you may have company.
Yeah they have definitely made their presence felt again. Another pack of Whites around Ballina/Lennox today. Surfed a certain point and beachie yesterday late arvo by myself, felt spooky as hell to the point that I couldn't shake it and ended up getting one in..found out today that there were 5 x 2-3m ones seen there under an hour before I paddled out.
Just surfed the same spot (probably) glassy 2-3ft, bait everywhere.
whites cleared the water to the south.
http://www.northernstar.com.au/news/three-white-sharks-spotted-ballinas-...
Off topic but has it started raining down there yet? Driving inland northern rivers tomorrow morning...
Not yet, looks dark all around us though, it's not far off.
no rain here at Lennox/Ballina Rees0, but the radar shows heavy showers moving in from the north. You'd expect tomorrow to be the worst of it.
Cheers fellas hopefully tweed river murwillumbah and uki can handle that volume of water long drive from the sunny coast to turn back.
some of those creeks could be dubious if projected rainfall totals come to pass.
Just heard on radio talking tomorrow arvo its gonna kick off major preparations under way. That inland trough looks nasty fingers crossed there right about the timing and i don't get stuck I'm planning on some chunky beaches sun morn somewhere up here. Hope crew stay safe down there floods or waves don't take unnecessary risks.
Chunky beachies Sun morn ?