South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 27th May)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: moderate (poss solid Sat) S'ly swell in Northern NSW with offshore winds. Mon: small S'ly swell in Northern NSW with good winds. 

Recap: The last few days have presented lots of challenges for the forecasting bench - Thursday’s south swell eased more rapidly than expected, and northerlies developed earlier than anticipated, with more strength than estimated. This has translated into a small peaky NE swell across some parts of the SE Qld and Far Northern NSW coast today; those locations that were also clean under a W’ly breeze enjoyed fun 2ft+ waves.

Lunchtime sets from the NE on the Tweed Coast

This weekend (Saturday 28th - Sunday 29th):

The weekend surf forecast is very tricky. But, we can make some general assumptions about SE Qld - it’s going to be very small and clean. 

A low and front pushing off the Southern NSW coast today, plus a second front pushing off the NSW coast late Saturday, will be aimed towards the E and NE (i.e. displaying anywhere from S/SW through W'ly fetches). Although the swell(s) generated by these systems will spread back into the mainland, it’s likely to only favour Northern NSW. 

In addition to these funky fetches is a deep, complex low that formed off the Far South Coast today, aiming 50-60kts of wind through Northern NSW’s partially sheltered south swell window (see right).

It’s very difficult to estimate the size potential from this source - take a look at how Wednesday’s very large south swell translated (or, didn’t translate) across Northern NSW on Thursday. 

Model guidance has this long period energy pushing through on Saturday morning, but I’m only moderately confident that we’ll see anything sizeable across the region’s south facing beaches. However, there was a system very similar to this many months ago (last year, off the top of my head) which displayed a similar poorly-aligned fetch in about the same region, and its only favourable attribute was a slingshot effect within the swell window - and it ended up punching way higher than we (and computer models) estimated. So that's sitting in the back of my mind too.

Right now, this system does look somewhat similar to that archived event, however it’s hard to know how much to increase or decrease the existing model data by. Southern NSW didn't show any major size increase by close of business today (3-4ft sets at south facing beaches) so I'm inclined to downlay the size potential in Northern NSW for now, despite the incredible satellite winds.

At the present time the models estimate a size increase throughout Saturday and a peak early Sunday, which doesn’t make much sense - this system only lasted a brief time in our swell window (today), and Saturday will likely present the only only opportunity to capitalise on the on period swell push. I suspect the bulk of energy will be gone by Sunday. 

Our surf height model is estimating Ballina (a reliable south swell magnet under most scenarios) will see a peak if 1.7m at 11.8 seconds late Saturday, with surf size in the 4ft range. Gut feel suggest we may see slightly bigger waves at south swell magnets (4-5ft) but most beaches not open to the south will come in smaller (2-3ft). An earlier arrival is expected on the Mid North Coast (so a peak is likely before lunch) with the Northern Rivers likely to see a mid-late afternoon peak in swell. Expect smaller surf ahead of the peak. Conditions should be clean all day under the westerly breeze. 

North of the border, expect small residual swells all day Saturday, with the region’s handful of south swell magnets picking up a very late pulse of new S’ly swell to 2ft+.

As for Sunday, we’re looking at clean conditions in general with moderate W/SW winds tending SW during the day, and easing S’ly swell from Saturday plus a brief pulse of mid-range south swell from a secondary fetch off the bottom of the low. This should keep south facing beaches with inconsistent 3ft+ surf throughout the day - very lully at times though - with smaller 2ft surf at beaches not open to the south.

North of the border, I don’t think we’ll see much more than a lazy foot at most beaches at the height of the swell (late Saturday), perhaps 1-2ft at exposed south swell magnets. Otherwise expect tiny surf throughout SE Qld.

Next week (Monday 30th onward):

A developing S/SW fetch off the South Coast over the weekend should maintain small S’ly swell energy across Northern NSW’s south swell magnets for Monday but it’s expected to be only small (2ft+) and won’t have much strength. Smaller surf is then expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

Across SE Qld, there are no new swell sources for next week so surf size will remain very small. 

Otherwise, there are no major synoptic developments for new swell throughout next week. A small S’ly fetch in the eastern Tasman Sea (associated with the current Tasman low’s later developments across NZ early next week) may deliver some sideband energy for mid-late next week, possibly 2-3ft at swell magnets south of the border but let’s wait and see how the models stack up over the coming days. 

In the same vein, a polar low tracking off the ice shelf on Sunday - that may become absorbed into the broader NZ system early next week - may also generate some side band energy mid-late next week but no great size is likely from this just yet. 

A troughy pattern is also expected to develop across the East Coast, but with no great swell potential at first. Therefore, much of next week will see small residual swells at exposed beaches with light variable winds.

Towards the end of the week, the coastal trough is expected to consolidate, forming a fresh N/NE fetch and a surface low off the South Coast that could generate a some punchy NE swell throughout Friday and into Saturday - however it’s more likely to favour southern NSW than northern NSW (and SE Qld). 

Regardless, these systems are quite volatile in where and when they develop (using long range model guidance) and its close proximity to the coast means confidence is low - if you shift the modelled position of the low 100km west, we won’t see much, if any swell - but there are other scenarios that could work in our benefit.

In any case it’s looking like more of a typical autumn pattern developing later next week (ironically, in the first few days of winter) and there’s a good chance that we’ll see some strong swell potential somewhere across the East Coast over the following days. But it’s way to early to estimate potential size and conditions. 

So, enjoy your weekend, see you Monday!