South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Monday 23rd May)

Best Days: Wednesday and Thursday morning in NSW. Thursday morning for SE QLD.

Recap: 

South-east Qld remained small across the weekend, with very small surf on Saturday bumping up marginally on Sunday but best suited to south facing beaches. With more exposure south of the border, a strong south swell building throughout Saturday, peaking Sunday with 4-5ft sets at exposed beaches, before easing back to the 3ft range today.

The mornings have offered the cleanest conditions under light offshore breezes, giving way to a light seabreeze each day.

This week (Tuesday 24th - Friday 27th):

A westerly fetch is currently exiting Bass Strait, steered by a strong front and small scale cut-off low situated just to the southeast of Tasmania. With a few hours, these 30-35kt westerly breezes will tend more west/southwesterly and intensify to around 35-45kts while also broadening and becoming elongated.

As Monday night turns into Tuesday morning, this system is expected to stall, forcing the pressure gradient to tighten along the western quadrants of the low. As a result, an elongated fetch should become established over eastern and southern parts of the Tasman Sea.

Since Friday’s notes, this swell event has been downgraded slightly due to the system lacking the intensity that was once anticipated.

Nevertheless, mid range southerly energy off the initial fetches exiting Bass Strait should be just starting to build along southern parts of the Mid North Coast by Tuesday afternoon, building to around 3-4ft exposed back beaches on dark, further to the 4-5ft range under the cover of darkness.

Much more substantial groundswell is due on Wednesday as a result of south/southwesterly fetches on the back side of the low slingshotting up through the southern swell window in a captured motion.

This energy should peak on Wednesday afternoon on the Mid North Coast, with sets in the 5-6ft range at south facing beaches, more so on Thursday further north. Once again due to the swell direction, less exposed beaches are likely to be significantly smaller, particularly across southeast QLD which may only pick up options in the 2ft range across the outer points (perhaps a touch more energy at the handful of south swell magnets).

Having said that, some exposed locations in Northern NSW may pick some strong sets in the 6-8ft range, especially at offshore reefs and bombies.

The Mid North Coast is due to see a southwesterly breezes first thing on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, more southerly along the North Coast and southeast QLD, tending light/variable onshore by the afternoon. Northwesterly breezes will dominate on Thursday morning, tending northerly and having an impact on wave quality across southeast QLD by the afternoon. The Mid North Coast is more likely to see a light variable airflow in the afternoon.

We are then likely to see a steady easing trend as the southern swell window takes a quick breather. Sets should ease fairly rapidly from the around 3-5ft range across the back beaches of NSW on Thursday (later further north), again with size limited across the less exposed spots.

It looks as though we will be in between swells on Friday, with left over energy providing options in the 2-3ft range at south facing beaches, becoming small across southeast QLD. Conditions should remain clean for the most part, under a broad scale west/northwesterly airflow, more northwesterly for southeast QLD.

Meanwhile however, a small low has the potential to develop off the coast of about Eden, intensifying quickly late on Thursday evening and into Friday morning. Small but intense fetches have the potential to steer 35-45kt winds up the South Coast of NSW, whipping up a moderate sized mid range swell for the weekend.

This weekend (Saturday 28th - Sunday 29th):

This swell should be moving up the Mid North Coast by Saturday morning, more so late morning further north, providing sets in the 2-3ft range across exposed back beaches, significantly smaller at less exposed beaches. 

Unfortunately, the bad news continues for southeast QLD, without much size on the forecast. The direction of this swell is just too acute and the system too small and brief.

As this system deepens and migrates across the Tasman, the southwesterly fetches will become poorly aligned, allowing the initial swell to ease.

Weak southeasterly fetches on the southern quadrants of this low should then come into action however, providing energy later on the weekend. These fetches look modest throughout the duration of the system, although their slow moving, persistent nature should provide a small amount of workable energy on Sunday, with sets in the 2-3ft range maintained by a small southeasterly fetch anchored off the southern tip of New Zealand’s South Island.

On the plus side, conditions should remain clean virtually all day for all coasts on Saturday under a persistent westerly airflow, tending southwesterly and eventually onshore on Sunday.