South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Monday 16th May)

Best Days: Saturday and Sunday morning for Northern NSW

Recap: Southerly energy has been the main source of swell over the past few days, and as a result of the acute swell direction southeast QLD has largely missed out. Instead, hints of background energy have been providing tiny, weak options in the 1ft range, if that.

The exposed south swell magnets of Northern NSW on the other hand have been much more reliable, picking up around 3-4ft on Saturday, fading slightly to the 3ft range on Sunday and back to around 2-3ft today.

Each morning has offered clean conditions under a generally westerly component airflow, preceding a seabreeze each afternoon.

This week (Tuesday 17th - Friday 21st):

In the coming week, the southern swell window will continue to be the main swell contributor, with little to no significant action out of the east.

We have seen a distinct lift in southerly energy across southern NSW today, generated by a system which passed to the south overnight. This is one of two swell fronts which will continue move northward, filling in across the exposed south swell magnets of northern NSW providing conditions in the 2-3ft range on Tuesday. 

Generally speaking, exposed south swell magnets (south of about Byron Bay) can expect the most size, with a drastic contrast in size across the open beaches and points primarily due to the swell direction. Meanwhile, southeast QLD is likely to dip out once again, with no significant indications of more size.

A strong low then looks to track over the nation’s southeast late this evening and into Tuesday morning, at first steering a westerly fetch through Bass Strait, followed by a southwesterly fetch off the back side of the low. Despite being a fairly sizeable system, there are a few limiting factors.

Firstly, the alignment of the westerly fetches at the head of the system are pretty ordinary and should only provide refracted energy across northern NSW.

The southwesterly fetches would usually be more promising, however this system looks to move across the southern swell window fairly rapidly, leaving limited time for decent swell generation. Before we know it, the main swell generating fetches will be in our distant swell window, with worsening alignment to the coast.

Nevertheless, the initial swell front should be in the water across the Mid North Coast from mid morning on Wednesday, building later in the day for Coffs and Ballina. Size wise, the exposed back beaches of south of the border can expect sets in the 2-3ft range, followed by a reinforcing pulse on Thursday (morning for Mid North Coast, afternoon further north), slowly easing thereafter.

As for wave quality, conditions are likely to be clean across northern NSW each morning under light westerly component breezes, giving way to a seabreeze each afternoon. Southeastern QLD should also be clean each morning under a light/variable-northwesterly breeze, although soon swinging thru northerly before tending northeasterly. Unfortunately there just won't be much swell north of the border.

The next most significant system looks to move over Tasmania in the form of an intense low, steering southwesterly core fetches of up to 55kts southeast of Tasmania (possibly strong as it moves east into the Tasman Sea).

The most recent model run has just adjusted the strength and size of the fetches down a touch while also slowing its eastward movement, however, south facing beaches are still in for some workable swell.

Disclaimer: I’m expecting the timing and size of each swell front to vary with every model run, so bare with me as the situation develops.

At this stage, it looks as though two pulses are likely to move in quick succession, the first reaching the Mid North Coast late on Friday, providing an increase so around 2-3ft. Further north, only left over energy will be breaking, failing to see fresh swell before night fall.

A southwesterly airflow looks to gradually swing around to the southeast across all coasts, so once again, capitalise not the morning session for the cleanest conditions.

This weekend (Saturday 22nd - Sunday 23rd):

By day break on Saturday, the swell should be peaking in the 4-5ft range at exposed swell magnets across Northern NSW, while the Mid North Coast will have likely peaked overnight and be on a downward trend from the 3-5ft range.

North of the border, the effects of this swell will be much more modest due to the swell shadow of the Australian mainland, with most beaches expected to remain tiny. However the region's handful of exposed south swell magnets may see refracted energy in the 2ft+ range on Saturday. Most beaches will remain tiny, however I'll revise this over the coming days. 

The southwesterly trailing fetches in the wake of this system look to remain established over the Tasman Sea, maintaining good energy into Sunday morning. Exposed swell magnets across Northern NSW should progressively ease from around 3-4ft, more so from the 2-3ft range for the Mid North Coast, with only hints of left over energy in the 1-2ft range at back beaches north of the border.

A light/variable-westerly airflow is expected each morning over the NSW coast, more light southerly over southeast QLD. Conditions will deteriorate each afternoon however as breezes tend southeasterly, having an impact on an otherwise fun southerly swell.

The southern swell window then looks to take a brief hiatus, allowing all coasts to ease early next week.

More detail about the developing systems on Wednesday and Friday.