South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 13th May)

Best Days: Should be fun beachbreaks in Northern NSW most days, though very lully at times. Don't expect much in SE Qld. There's also a chance for a large S swell next weekend.

Recap: The expected complex south swell pattern ended up being even more complex than expected. Overall, wave heights came in a little under expectations though the most interesting point was the large variety in size across the region: some locations saw solid 4-5ft sets whilst others dipped out considerably (also of interest - our surf model got the prediction bang on; I expected it was undercalling the long period southerly energy, as it sometimes does). Most beaches in Northern NSW saw good waves across the open beaches though, and conditions were excellent both days with light offshore winds. As expected, SE Qld saw very little surf though the swell magnets picked up some reasonably fun 2-3ft waves as the swell pulsed. 

Tweed buoy trace: notice the rise and fall in significant wave heights over the last few days, and the kick in peak swell period late morning today.

This weekend (May 14th - 15th)

The general trend for the weekend will remain as anticipated earlier in the week. However, with surf size coming in under forecast for the last few days - and having monitored surf size across Southern NSW today (which also came in under expectations), I have revised wave heights down.

Once again, we’re looking at a multitude of south swells to grace the region over the coming days, originating from a poorly aligned but very active frontal passage south of the continent.

As such, in similarity to today we should see wave heights ebb and flow as each swell transits across the region, so the take home message is: don’t completely write off the surf potential if your initial check shows small waves. There’s a very good chance that within a few hours it’ll be much different.

So, as for size - SE Qld will remain tiny all weekend, with only the region’s handful of south swell magnets picking up stray sets as the energy glances the coast.

South of the border - specifically, south of Byron - is where you’ll need to head for any appreciable size. South facing beaches will see the biggest waves all weekend, occasionally reaching 3-4ft but as noted above, there will be some long lully periods at times. 

Other beaches not directly open to the south will see smaller surf, probably in the 2-3ft range, and the protected points and southern corners will be much smaller again. And, let me once again emphasise the inconsistency - there will be very long breaks between sets. 

Fortunately, light variable winds are expected in all areas both days thanks to a weak pressure gradient so conditions should remain very good. So spread yourself out and find an empty beach in order to maximise your wave count. 

As for the timing of each swell front: Saturday looks like it’ll see two swells (so, very hard to pick an overall trend), whilst Sunday has one swell expected to arrive from lunchtime onwards. So if anything, Sunday morning may deliver the low point of the weekend, but a building trend is expected into the afternoon. Confidence isn't very high on this though.

In any case I’ll keep an eye on the surf obs across Southern NSW and will post any relevant information in the comments below as it arises. 

Next week (May 16th onwards)

Next week is expected to see a continuation of the active Southern Ocean storm track, though with a little less strength than seen over the last few days. This suggests a mainly small week of pulsing south swells across Northern NSW, and very little happening in SE Qld (the trades have been inactive of late, and will remain that way for some time). 

At a pinch we may see a mid-week pulse into the 3-4ft range at reliable Northern NSW south swell magnets if we’re lucky, but for now it’s not worth getting too excited about.

Towards the end of next week it looks like a very strong upper level long wave pattern will amplify across the SE corner of the country, possibly leading to a large south swell some time around next weekend, and into the early part of the following week.

I’ll have more details on that on Monday. Until then, have a great weekend!