South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 11th May)

Best Days: Strong series of south swells building Thurs/Fri/Sat/Sun. Lots of size south of Byron but not much size in SE Qld due to the direction. More south swell next week too!

Recap: Our most recent prolonged east swell eased very slowly through Tuesday, ahead of a more pronounced easing trend today. Most open beaches still managed 2-3ft sets throughout Tuesday, with winds holding from the NW at many coasts (N’ly in a few locations). This morning, surf size dropped back to 1-2ft at most open beaches (smaller into the afternoon too), and conditions were sparkling clean under a brisk W/SW wind. A new S’ly swell pushed up along the Northern NSW coast today, well ahead of schedule - this actually originated from the gale force W/SW fetch behind the front, of which the swell correspondingly spread back into the coast, north of an axis point that appeared to be around the Hunter/Coffs region (as Sydney beaches were tiny). These swells are super tricky to have confidence in as the responsible fetch was almost perpendicular to the coast - aimed towards New Zealand! Sets seemed to be around the 3ft mark at south facing beaches south of Byron.

This week (May 12th - 13th)

No changes to the forecast for the rest of the week.

We have a series of south swells on the way, originating from several unusual parts of our acute south swell window, and each will deliver a wide range in size and energy across the coast, depending on your region’s exposure to the south.

Normally I’m reluctant to offer overly-broad estimates in likely size ranges, but this is very likely what’s going to pan out over the coming days. Some reliable south swell magnets will pick up exponentially more swell than everywhere else, and sheltered corners will remain tiny due to the swell direction. Therefore, creating a one-size-fits-all forecast is near impossible.

The swell sources are very interesting too. We’ve got a vigorous frontal progression south of the continent with westerly gales sweeping Tasmania and the southern mainland coasts. The overall progression is very "zonal” in alignment, meaning it’s very west-east aligned, which ordinarily is not favourable for East Coast swell generation. But the passage of multiple systems allows a very active sea state to build up, and each front usually has a couple of features that swings the swell potential in our favour - initially a overall south of west fetch direction, and then also a small region around each primary low where core winds are aimed more meridional (north - south). 

So the end result is an extended run of small to moderate south swell for our region (which only favours exposed south facing beaches), interspersed with several pulses of solid, long period south swell. These peaks are what we need to pin down as they’re likely to max out the open beaches, but more importantly will provide good mid-sized waves at remaining beaches and even some small peelers inside southern corners. 

And hopefully a few small waves across SE Qld too (which will otherwise completely dip out from this southerly progression).

So, I'm expecting two or three individual pulses of south swell through Thursday and Friday. I’m still finding it difficult to pin down precise times, because the nature of these overlapping events means that we’ll see staggered arrivals as the energy pushes along the Mid North Coast and then the Northern Rivers (and lastly the outer fringes of SE Qld). 

But for what it’s worth, it’s probably worth noting these points:

• Although Thursday should see a steady upwards trend all day, the Far North Coast (north of Yamba) may be rather undersized early morning, compared to southern regions. 
• Friday will probably see the largest waves of the period - if anything, before lunch across the Mid North Coast, and after lunch across the Far North Coast. 
• I’m skeptical that the broader SE Qld coast will see much surf during this period, due to the direction

As for size in Northern NSW, later Thursday and Friday have the potential to see 5-6ft+ sets at the height of the swell, but only at reliable, well exposed south swell magnets. Remaining open beaches should see a peak in the 3-4ft+ range, and protected southern ends will be much smaller again.

Across SE Qld, Friday will likely see the biggest surf but it probably won’t reach much more than an inconsistent 1-2ft at most beaches (expect smaller surf on Thursday). The region’s handful of south swell magnets should however see some decent waves, maybe 2-3ft later Thursday and then 3ft+ at times through Friday (probably the afternoon). But, confidence is only low for this to eventuate.

Winds will remain light offshore for most of both days, so there’s no need to work around an early period of light winds.

Let’s wait and see what happens!

This weekend (May 14th - 15th)

The weekend has more of the same on the cards for the entire region. 

Model guidance is winding back wave heights quite a bit from Friday's peak, but I don’t think it’ll be quite as drastic as it's suggesting. Two more southerly long period groundswells are due to push through over the weekend - one on Saturday, another on Sunday - but they will be slightly less favourably aimed within our swell window. So this does reduce the surf size potential but I think the models are going a little overboard.

If anything, I like Sunday’s swell more than Saturday’s, mainly due to the core wind strength and alignment from the responsible low as it tracks south of Tasmania on Friday. But this will probably create an even wider range in wave heights across the region. 

So, for now I’m going to keep the outlook broad for the weekend, and I’ll refine the data on Friday with the availability of the latest model guidance and satellite winds. Exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW (south of Byron) should see 3-5ft sets both days (actually, I wouldn't be surprised if there are bigger bombs at times on Sunday), but most open beaches will be much, much smaller aorund 2-3ft, and it'll be tiny surf inside southern corners. 

North of the border, it looks like both days will remain tiny at most open beaches (~1ft or so) however south swell magnets could pick up occasional 2ft+ sets. 

Winds look light and variable for the  most part too - perhaps a minor northerly freshening trend into Saturday, but mainly south of Yamba (probably won’t affect the surf too much).

Let’s fine tune this outlook on Friday. 

Next week (May 16th onwards)

Would you believe - the strong Southern Ocean storm track is expected to persist right through into next week.

So, at this stage it looks like South-east Queensland will continue to see tiny surf conditions right through until the end of next week, possibly even next weekend, whilst Northern NSW will see a string of solid back-to-back southerly groundswells.

More on this in Friday's updated notes.