South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 27th April)

Best Days: Most days should have good waves. 

Recap: Slowly easing but initially strong peaky E/SE swell, with plenty of wind from the SE quadrant in northern locations, relegating the best waves to protected points. Winds are light and variable across the Mid North Coast, with better surface conditions.

This week (April 26th - 29th)

No changes to the forecast for the rest of the week.

We’ve still got a strong ridge anchored through the South Pacific and into the Coral Sea, which is generating mid-range trade swell for the region. A minor lift is expected through Thursday afternoon and into Friday, and with the ridge pulling back slightly from the coast, we should see local winds ease in strength across the Far Northern NSW and SE Qld coasts. So conditions should improve.

That being said, the synoptic flow will remain out of the east so don’t expect super clean conditions - we’ll see light winds through the mornings, and lumpy/glassy waves at the beaches, with smoother options across the points (though smaller in size). The wind will probably pick up from the SE or E/SE during the day; without a lot of strength but enough to put a few bumps into the lineup.

It’ll be a much different story along the Mid North Coast though, with light variable winds expected all day, and consequently good surfing conditions at most coasts. 

The small increase expected through Thursday should maintain 3-4ft waves across the Gold, Sunshine and Tweed Coast open beaches, possibly even a few bigger sets north of Moreton Island (surf size may be temporarily undersized Thursday morning; a peak is expected overnight and into Friday). 

Wave heights will however become slightly smaller in size as you track south of Byron Bay. Either way there should be no shortage of waves across the region with very good options expected across the outer SE Qld points. 

This weekend (April 30th - May 1st)

The rise in swell expected into Friday should hold into Saturday morning (3-4ft from SE Qld down to about Byron, ~3ft from Ballina to Coffs, 2-3ft south to Forster). Otherwise, the swell will trend slowly downwards throughout the weekend. 

Saturday is looking the pick of the weekend with light variable winds in most regions and weak afternoon sea breezes. Sunday morning should pan out similar on the surface, with slightly smaller waves (down by half to one foot from Saturday) but freshening northerlies are likely into the afternoon, especially south of Coffs Harbour where they could become fresh at times.

North of Ballina, winds probably won't gain much strength into the afternoon but any north in its direction will create problems at the points. So, aim for a morning surf for the best waves.

Next week (May 2nd onwards)

A broad secondary east fetch developing NE of New Zealand on Thursday and Friday should provide some small, long range energy around Monday and Tuesday. No major size is expected, and the swell will be a little inconsistent, but exposed beaches in Far Northern NSW should pick up occasional 2-3ft sets, with smaller waves to the north (i.e. SE Qld) and south (i.e. Mid North Coast). 

This fetch looks like it’ll ebb and flow for a few days, so chances are reasonably good that we’ll continue to see small east swells across exposed beaches all next week. In fact, we still have a strengthening trend expected near Tonga early-mid week and this could kick up a slightly better, bigger east swell towards the end of the week or next weekend. It’s still some time away though so let’s wait to see how Friday’s model runs are looking.

Otherwise, I’ll be keeping an eye on the Southern Ocean storm track for the longer term period. A significant long wave trough is expected to amplify through the Bight later in the weekend and early next week, driving strong frontal systems into the Southern Australian coast. Initially they’ll be aimed well and truly outside of our swell window, however we may see a small cut-off mid-latitude low develop off the NSW coast throughout this time frame. This has the potential to generate brief, one-off swell events for small sections of the coast  - though confidence is not very high right now.

The long wave trough is expected to cross the Tasman Sea longitudes mid-late next week, so theoretically there’s a reasonable chance of a solid spell of large southerly groundswell next weekend or early in the following week. I’ll take a closer look at that in Friday’s update.