South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 18th April)

Best Days: Small peaky beachies Tues thru' Fri. Nothing amazing but there'll be surf. Outer SE Qld and Far Northern NSW points Sun/Mon with a new trade swell.

Recap: Plenty of fun trade swell over the last few days. No discernible trend was observed throughout the forecast period (despite there being an expectation for a minor easing later Saturday and early Sunday); surf size managed 2-3ft across most coasts with 3ft+ sets across open beaches in Far Northern NSW. Winds were light in the mornings with sea breezes into the afternoons. In addition to this east swell, a new long period south swell is pushing up the Northern NSW coast today with inconsistent 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches (inline with expectations, but still somewhat smaller than the 4-5ft surf reported in Southern NSW). All in all a super fun but otherwise unremarkable couple of days of autumn waves. 

Next week (April 19th - 22nd)

Well, last Friday’s optimism for a fresh E swell off a building coastal trough this week have been diminished. 

The models have backed off the scope of the trough, and the easterly fetch developing about its northern flank is smaller, weaker and less consolidated than last week’s projections were suggesting.

So this, coupled in with several long range sources of east swell, will maintain small waves at most open beaches for much of this week. Wave heights should mainly hover in and around the 2ft range at open beaches from Tuesday thru' Friday (smaller at protected spots/points etc). A minor kick is possible later Thursday and into Friday thanks to a mild strengthen of the easterly winds in the northern Tasman Sea mid-week, but I’m doubtful we’ll see much more than 2ft+ at the swell magnets at this stage. 

Winds should be light and variable all week though, leading to favourable conditions for the most part.

As for our southern swell window: apart from today’s southerly swell (which will ease through Tuesday) there are no sources of south swell on the cards either. 

This weekend (April 23rd - 24th)

Looks like an average start to the weekend in the surf department, though we are likely to see some fun waves across the SE Qld outer points by Sunday.

A southerly change is expected to push across the NSW coast later Friday and into Saturday, however the parent Southern Ocean low will become disengaged as it tracks eastwards across the Tasman Sea. This will reduce the overall swell potential, by creating two separate sources of energy.

The long range southerly energy is expected to be poorly aimed our way, so any swell it generates will lose a lot of size as it spreads back into the mainland. Additionally, those exposed south facing beaches picking up most of the size will become wind affected from a gusty S/SE breeze that’s expected to develop as a ridge builds across the Queensland coast.

The ridge looks like it’ll be quite broad and long though, which is good as it’ll generate a short range trade swell for the region - biggest across the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, and smaller as you head south of the border. Saturday will be small, but exposed locations north of Ballina should see a peak on Sunday afternoon in the 2-3ft range across the outer SE Qld points (bigger, but wind affected 3-4ft+ surf at exposed beaches), whilst most locations in Northern NSW will either be small and clean (protected spots), or solid and bumpy (exposed spots). The southerly groundswell probably won’t have any more size - in Northern NSW - than the building trade swell, but it should penetrate into protected spots if you’re after a small wave.

So, in short - Saturday looks small with windy conditions as the change moves up the coast; Sunday is a better bet if you’ve got a sand bottom outer point at your disposal across SE Qld. 

Let’s see how the model runs are fairing on Wednesday. 

Next week (April 25th onwards)

Nothing major standing out in the long term charts at this stage - looks like the Queensland ridge will occupy the region into the following week, meaning Monday (Anzac Day) will probably be very similar to Sunday’s offerings. Either way not worth too much of a road trip at this stage.