South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 15th April)

Best Days: Most days should have fun peaky beachies. Fingers crossed for a model upgrade over the coming days, for a potential sideband E'ly swell Tues/Wed, that'll favour Northern NSW (specifically the Mid North Coast).

Recap: Slowly building short range trade swell through Thursday and into Friday, albeit coming in just below forecast expectations. Most notable was a distinct lack of push in the swell (attributable to a low swell period) however some locations dished up some nice waves with a brief early offshore wind. Exposed beaches seem to have maxed out at about 3ft+ with smaller waves at remaining locations and across the points. 

Burleigh Heads this morning

This weekend (April 16th - 17th)

The weekend’s surf forecast has had a minor upgrade since Wednesday.

There’s no changes to Saturday's outlook, with today’s trade swell expected to hold steady overnight - swell heights are expected to fall slightly, but the swell period is expected to build incrementally, so the two should initially cancel each other out and maintain a similar size range as per what we are seeing this afternoon (3ft+ exposed beaches across Northern NSW, slightly smaller across protected locations and throughout SE Qld). Expect surf size to ease a little during the day. 

Local winds will remain out of the SE on Saturday, though only light to moderate in strength, and we should see a reasonable period of early SW winds across most - but not all - coasts (I fear the Sunny Coast may see lingering S’ly thru’ SE winds overnight that won’t properly clean up for the early session).

On Sunday, we’ll initially kick off the day with a continued decreasing swell from Saturday. So, weak, inconsistent 2-3ft leftovers should be present for the dawn patrol at exposed beaches in Northern NSW (smaller elsewhere).

However, a new E/SE swell - detailed in Wednesday’s notes to arrive on Monday - has been strengthened in the latest model runs, which means we’ll see this pulse arrive a little sooner, and with a little more size.

I’m not expecting a great deal of size, however exposed beaches across Northern NSW should kick up 2-3ft+ sets into the afternoon (leading edge is due in around mid-morning), and we’ll see smaller surf across SE Qld. There’ll probably be just enough for the outer points mid-late afternoon though probably not quite enough consistency to appease the weekend (and holiday!) crowds. 

This pulse will have been generated by a tight squeeze between the current Tasman high, and a broad trough to the north (between NZ and Fiji) which is strengthening 25-30kt winds within an ideal part of our swell window today. It’s also pushing slightly westward, which is ideal for swell generation. It should be a little stronger than today's/tomorrow's surf too, owing to a slightly larger period (the result of stronger core wind speeds).

Sunday's local winds look generally pretty good - light and variable in most regions thanks to a weak pressure gradient, though periods of onshore can’t be ruled out thanks to passing showers and squalls associated with a regionally unstable atmosphere. But on the balance it should be reasonably good in most areas. 

Next week (April 18th onwards)

All week in these notes I’ve been alluding to broad scale potential across the Tasman Sea, none of which was showing in the computer models, but all of which seemed quite possible given the developing synoptics.

And, the good news is that the models have finally swung inline with my thinking. We’ve got some developing swell generating systems in our near swell window that look like they'll bear some good fruit over the coming week.

But just to backtrack a bit…

The fetch responsible for Sunday afternoon’s pulse (pulled forward from Wednesday’s expectations) should maintain a similar level of surf size into Monday morning. This swell will be biggest across Northern NSW (2-3ft+ sets) with snmaller surf across SE Qld. Winds should be light and variable in most regions. Smaller surf is expected into Tuesday from this source. 

Additionally, we have a developing monsoon pattern across the Fijian region (which unfortunately looks like it may deliver yet another heavy local rain event this weekend), which could result in the development of a tropical low, or even a Cat 1 Tropical Cyclone (to the SE of Fiji). As this system pushes away form Fiji it’ll develop within a better part of our swell window, and we’ll see some small E’ly thru E/NE swell arriving around Wednesday or Thursday - however no major size due to the large travel distance and unconsolidated fetch - but still, enough to keep the open beaches humming.

We’ll also see some small long period S’ly swell push up the NSW coast on Monday, courtesy of a deep but poorly aligned Southern Ocean low pressure system. Occasional 3ft+ sets at reliable south swell magnets are possible but this swell will probably just glance the outer fringes of the Australian East Coast enroute to Fiji, New Zealand and other South Pacific shores. So, we won't see much swell away from these exposed beaches.

Intermittent southerly energy should persist through Tuesday and early Wednesday from this source.

My main focus for next week is a deepening trough along the New South Wales coast around Monday. Initially, we’ll see only a modest band of trades aimed into our swell window (mainly Northern NSW over SE Qld), and the trough looks like it’ll eventually focus towards Southern NSW. However we have to keep in mind that a few days ago this scenario wasn't even on the charts - and now it's a healthy swell generating system within 96 hours of formation. So, further small upgrades are possible over the coming days in my opinion.

The models have a small closed low forming at the southern most extent of the coastal trough (off the Far South NSW Coast), later Tuesday. This isn’t a great development for our region, as it usually results in a high concentration of maximum swell size towards one small region - in this case Southern NSW. But it’s early days, and anything is possible with how this system could evolve.

Right now I’m most interested in the early stages of this trough, which should generate some useful sideband easterly swell for Northern NSW, biggest across the Mid North Coast, through Tuesday and Wednesday. Local winds look like they’ll be quite good and with a mix of additional long range east and south swell, the open beaches could see some really fun peaky waves around 3-4ft. Wave heights will probably be smaller north of Ballina, and especially so north of the border, but let's finalise this on Monday with the availabilty of satellite winds.

Anyway, let’s see how things evolve over the weekend - I’ll update in the comments below. Otherwise have a great weekend, and I’ll see you Monday.