South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 8th April)

Best Days: Solid building south swell next week, though winds may only be favourable early in the week. Good trade swell setting up for later next week/weekend and beyond too.

Recap: There’s been some slow but fun beach breaks to finish the working week. Thursday still managed the odd 2-3ft set in the morning across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, but it eased a touch into this morning with inconsistent 2ft+ waves on offer, with the inclusion of a small southerly swell that seems to be providing a few bigger waves (2-3ft) at south swell magnets. Freshening northerly winds on Thursday preceded mainly light winds today as a weak front stalled to our south, having passed through southern NSW yesterday.

This weekend (April 9th - 10th)

No changes to the weekend forecast.

The existing east swell will continue to slowly wind down both days, and with no new swell sources having developed recently in our eastern swell window, we’re looking at small surf across SE Qld and most of Northern NSW. Aim for the beachbreaks and take your favourite high volume stick.

The only new source of swell this weekend will be out of the south. A series of strong but poorly aligned frontal systems tracking south of the continent this week has generated a period of pulse south swell that will push up the coast over the next few days. However, it’s very hard to have confident in the size and timing due to the large travel distance and the considerable off-axis alignment of the main fetch.

At this stage it’s looking like we’ll see a small nondescript south swell in the water on Saturday, being the leftovers from the small pulse that came up today. However a second pulse of longer period southerly swell is due to push through on Sunday, and exposed south swell magnets may see inconsistent 2-3ft+ sets from this source (note: this swell may not be in the water across the Far North Coast early morning). 

Beaches not completely exposed to the south will be smaller in size, and I’m doubtful that we’ll see much translation at all north of the border (due to the direction) - Byron Bay will be the northern-most location picking up the bulk size. 

As for this weekend’s conditions, they’re not looking too bad overall. A weak ridge will create mainly light variable winds across most coasts though we are likely to see some form of northerly at times. Aim for the early morning for the best conditions, but overall there’s likely to be rideable options at exposed Northern NSW locations for much of the weekend. 

Next week (April 11th - 15th)

We’ve still got a strong round of extended south swell on the way for next week. However, the balance has been tipped a little. 

In Wednesday’s notes it was suggested that the first swell would be smaller than the second (or third, depending on how you characterised each swell - there’s quite a few embedded pulses likely within this pattern).

Now it looks like the first two swells will be the biggest - building from late Monday towards a peak late Tuesday - with a secondary swell maintaining strong energy through Wednesday, ahead of a moderate followup swell on Thursday. 

So, four south swells in four days (actually, five in five days if you include Sunday’s small long period pulse). And Thursday’s swell will persist into Friday so we’re looking at quite a lengthy spell out of the south.

First things first though - these swells won’t really favour SE Qld at all. Unless you can get yourself to a reliable south swell magnet (just a handful north of the border), most venues will closely dip out in the size department. So you’ll have to hit the road south of the border to maximise on these events. 

Monday’s surf will start off small with leftovers from Sunday, but new energy should start to show across the Mid North Coast in the afternoon with 3-4ft sets at south swell magnets. This swell will then continue to build across the remaining Northern NSW coast on Tuesday, peaking in the late afternoon with 5-6ft sets at south swell magnets but much smaller surf elsewhere due to the direction.

It’s possible that the timing of this swell up the coast may be as such that the Far Northern NSW coast doesn’t see a peak in size until Wednesday morning. I'll revise all of this in Monday's notes.

Surf size will probably trend down slowly throughout Wednesday (earlier in the south, than in the north) ahead of the next round of S’ly swell due to build throughout Thursday, peaking late afternoon or early Friday before trending back down as we head into the weekend. This last pulse should reach 4-5ft at south facing beaches, with smaller surf elsewhere.

As for conditions - at this stage it’s looking like the first half of the week will see mainly weak pressure gradients and thus light winds across the coast, but there’s a suggestion that the second half of the week will be under the influence of a building coastal ridge, driving moderate to fresh S/SE winds across many locations. This pattern would confide the best waves to the protected points, which will be smaller.

So, make the most of the more favourable conditions earlier in the week.

Next weekend and beyond (April 16th onwards)

Computrer models are suggesting late next week’s strengthening coastal ridge will extend quite a fair distance to the east thanks to a broad, slow moving high pressure system in the Tasman Sea. Additionally, they’re also tipping a broad area of low pressure will descend from Fijian latitudes, tightening the squeeze between the two and resulting in a good region for swell production. 

So, it’s fair to say that the end of the next week, next weekend and the following week are potentially shaping up for a reasonable spell of decent mid-range trade swell. That’s probably somewhat optimistic but given the prevailing patterns at the moment I don’t think it’s an unreasonable suggestion.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!