South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 1st April)

Best Days: No great days, but there'll be small clean beachies most mornings. 

Recap: Mainly small residual swells on Thursday, remaining small in SE Qld throughout Friday but a new south swell has pushed up the Northern NSW coast, offering 3ft sets to south facing beaches, with smaller surf elsewhere. 

Lazy Friday afternoon peaks at The Pass

This weekend (April 2nd - 3rd)

We’ve got a weekend of generally small swells ahead.

Today’s building southerly swell across Northern NSW will fade through Saturday but the early morning may produce some occasional 2-3ft sets at reliable, exposed south swell magnets between Byron Bay and Yamba. Smaller surf is expected from this source north to the border (and especially so throughout SE Qld), and it'll also be smaller south of about Coffs - as the swell will essentially be drying up from this region first. Expect an easing trend throughout the day.

Otherwise, a moderate easterly fetch across the north-eastern Tasman Sea mid-week will maintain small levels of easterly swell across most open beaches both days, around 2ft on Saturday with slightly smaller surf through Sunday. It'll be quite tidally dependent at times, so keep your expectations low.

It’s also worth pointing out that a series of very distant, poorly aligned south swells (generated well south of the continent, in fact best aimed towards Victoria!) will push up along the coast over the coming days, but in general they’ll bypass our region - perhaps offering a few stray two foot sets to super exposed south swell magnets at best. I certainly wouldn’t expect to see much from these sources, but if you see local peak swell periods jump at the buoys (similar to Tasmania’s Cape Sorell buoy, which picked up 18.5 seconds from the leading edge of the first swell, last night) then you’ll know where it originated from.

As for local winds this weekend - no major trend is expected either day. We’ll see light variable winds and sea breezes for the most part on Saturday, with a freshening NW breeze across the lower Mid North Coast as a front approaches from the south-west.

On Sunday, this front will push up the Southern NSW coast but model guidance has it stalling just south of Seal Rocks, so the Mid North Coast may see a day of mainly light variable winds (though there is certainly a risk that this southerly may push through.. keep an eye on local obs). This stalled southerly change may also kick up a small increase in short range south swell for Sunday afternoon, though generally south of Coffs Harbour. I can't see there being much more than a peaky 2ft+ at south swell magnets.

Otherwise, a strengthening Coral Sea ridge on Sunday will freshen SE winds throughout the afternoon (light and variable early), mainly across the Sunshine Coast and perhaps the Gold Coast, but without too much influence south of there border. So light variable winds should persist for much of the day from Byron Bay down to the Mid North Coast. 

Next week (April 4th onwards)

Nothing major on the cards for next week at this stage.

The strengthening ridge across the Coral Sea should generate some small short range SE swell for Monday but it’ll mainly favour the Sunshine Coast (2-3ft sets at exposed northern ends) and the Gold Coast (2ft+ open beaches), however they’ll be somewhat wind affected, and the points will be much smaller.

We’ll also see the ridge broaden out into the South Pacific early next week as a complex area of low pressure - likely to develop one or more tropical depression, or possible even a tropical cyclone - takes shape between Fiji and Vanuatu.

This fetch won’t be very well aimed towards our coast, so we’ll probably see a sustained period of small sideband energy through the middle part of the week, building from 2ft to 2-3ft across the Gold Coast from Tuesday thru’ Friday (a smidge bigger on the Sunshine Coast, but smaller south of the Byron Bay).

Unfortunately, these tropical systems contained within the broader pattern are also expected to be shunted quickly to the east so their swell generating capacity will be significantly reduced. I’ll keep an eye on it over the weekend for any signs of it stalling, but at this stage it’s not looking very promising for any major swells. There is also a suggestion that we’ll see one of these systems develop more favourably NE of New Zealand later next week, but this is right at the end of the model runs and certainly can’t be trusted (in my opinion, there’s a greater than usual chance that this scenario will be wiped from future model run updates).

Looking to our southern swell window, and a series of strong approaching fronts will initially strengthen northerly winds about the Mid North Coast through Tuesday and Wednesday (with mainly small residual swells on offer), ahead of a burst of southerly swells later next week. Prior to this we’ll probably see a couple of very small long period south swells clip the coast’s exposed swell magnets - again, sourced from distant Southern Ocean lows - but we’re looking at a more typical autumn frontal progression through the lower Tasman Sea from mid-late next week onwards that should supply a steady stream of southerly groundswell events for Northern NSW into the long term (next weekend and beyond).

So whilst the next week or so doesn’t look especially flash, there’s plenty of surf to get excited about beyond this. More in Monday’s update.