South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 30th March)

Best Days: No great days, but there'll be small clean beachies most mornings. 

Recap: Monday afternoon’s building south swell eased steadily throughout Tuesday across Northern NSW, and a small east swell kept remaining beaches workable before the sea breeze kicked in. A new long range E’ly swell has kicked in today offering inconsistent but fun 3ft sets across much of the region. 

This week (Thursday 31st - Friday 1st)

Nothing of any major importance for the rest of the week. Today’s new E'ly groundswell will slowly fade from Thursday morning onwards. Exposed beaches should see early 2-3ft sets but it’ll be smaller away from the swell magnets - especially across the points - and surf size will decrease throughout the day.  

Local winds should be offshore in most areas early morning thanks to a small low developing off the Southern NSW coast, but we may see a little more north in the wind direction across SE Qld (following a period of variable winds at dawn). Because of the southern NSW low, southerly winds are expected to push up into the Mid North Coast during the day but this probably won’t have much influence north of about Coffs Harbour.

Model guidance also has a small south swell in the water for Thursday. This swell does appear to be pushing through Southern NSW today (occ 2-3ft sets) so it’s likely we’ll see some stray bombs at exposed south swell magnets (the models have the swell direction at S/SW, which is very acute). I’m still not 100% on where it was sourced from - I’m pretty sure it was a zonal frontal passage south of the continent over the weekend - but in any case these kinds of swells often just glance the swell magnets, and provide little benefit elsewhere. Don't expect much more than very inconsistent 2ft, maybe 2-3ft sets though. 

On Friday, we’ll see a continuation of background E’ly swell (a combination of easing groundswell from today, and some small mid-range energy from the eastern flank of a developing but near-stationary trough just east of New Caledonia. This should provide inconsistent 2ft sets to most beaches throughout the day.

Northern NSW will pick up a fresh short range south swell on Friday, originating from the low developing off the coast early Thursday. Again, the swell direction is expected to be quite acute so the south swell magnets will certainly pick up the bulk of the size with very little showing elsewhere. However, model guidance has eased back a touch since Monday so I’m going to cap wave heights at about 3ft+ at these exposed locations, with smaller surf elsewhere. Winds look pretty good on Friday, mainly light and variable with sea breezes. 

This weekend (April 2nd - 3rd)

Still nothing major expected for the weekend. A moderate, stationary easterly fetch developing SE of New Caledonia through the second half of this week should maintain peaky 2ft surf at most beaches both days. 

A developing tropical system in the Coral Sea now looks like it’ll remain very far north, and will therefore not be of any benefit to us (it also won’t affect our local winds either).

However, a vigorous front is expected to push up the Southern NSW coast on Saturday, and this should building short range S’ly swell for Northern NSW on Sunday. Unfortunately, freshening southerly winds will accompany this swell increase - which won’t be very large anyway, maybe some average 3ft sets - so surface conditions will become blown out at most open beaches. The Far North Coast and SE Qld region should see a reasonable period of light variable winds early morning though, before the southerly kicks in. Don't expect this southerly swell to do much north of Byron though.

So, aim for the early session both days, and hit up your favourite swell magnet with a high volume board.  

Next week (April 4th onwards)

The front responsible for Sunday’s swell is expected to form a low in the Tasman Sea, but model guidance shunts this quickly eastwards, which significantly reduces its swell potential. 

Otherwise, there are no no major swell generating systems on the horizon, except a seasonal progression of Souther Ocean cold fronts through the lower Tasman Sea, which should result in an ongoing spell of moderate southerly groundswells for Northern NSW. Weekend trade winds south of Fiji should maintain small easterly swells into the first day or two of next week but no significant size is expected. 

The Coral Sea system (mentioned in the weekend’s notes) should maintain a healthy trade flow off the Queensland coast into Monday but it won’t extend very far into our swell window, so apart from some small short range SE energy, we could be looking at an ongoing period of minor swells north of the border.

In Monday's notes I mentioned that the Coral Sea could see some more significant activity next week, and whilst this is still possible, the models are very divergent at the moment, so we need quite a few more days before there can be any confidence in the broader trends. More on this in Friday’s update.