South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 28th March)

Best Days: No great days, but there'll be fun beachies most of the forecast period. 

Recap: Wide range of fun small to medium size east and south swells for the Easter break, with generally light variable winds and sea breezes. A new south swell is building across Northern NSW today but is unlikely to influence SE Qld away fro the south swell magnets. 

This week (Tuesday 29th - Friday 1st)

It’s always tricky sitting down to write the first forecast after coming back from some time away from the synoptic charts. My main concern is not being in tune with how the models are performing regarding particular weather systems, and also being able to quickly hindmost already developed (and approaching) new swells. Such as the east combo expected over the next couple of days.

So right now we have a building S’ly swell in the water, that’s expected to reach a peak overnight before easing throughout Tuesday. Although Guy’s forecast (on Friday) was above model guidance, this is largely how the surf has played out in Southern NSW (modelled wave heights were around 0.7m @ 15 seconds, yet the surf came in at a solid 4-5ft at Sydney’s south facing beaches). Most of our Northern NSW locations have similar data forecasts for overnight and early Tuesday - Coffs Harbour is 0.7m @ 14.4 seconds at midnight - so I can’t find any reason to majorly downgrade the outlook. However we will be on the backside of the swell throughout the day so expect the biggest waves in the morning. Exposed south facing beaches should be anywhere around the 3-4ft mark, maybe even 3-5ft at first light (more likely in the Far North than the Mid North), and it’ll lose a couple of feet during the day. Expect smaller surf at remaining beaches not completely open to the south.

This south swell won’t do much, if anything north of the border but we’re looking at a continuation of mid-range E’ly swell on Tuesday, originating from a broad but weak low near New Caledonia. Surf size should maintain slow but workable, peaky 2ft+ sets across the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, best suited to the open beaches. Tuesday’s winds will also favour the morning session with early light variable winds ahead of light to moderate afternoon sea breezes. 

On Wednesday, we’ll see a further drop in the southerly swell, and the mid-range E’ly swell should continue along much the same as per Tuesday. However, sometime throughout the morning (I’m not confident on the timing, but it’s unlikely to be super early), the leading edge of a long range E’ly groundswell is expected to push through, generated late last week from a tropical low south of Tahiti. 

The synoptics of this system look quite good, with a broad, sustained E’ly fetch aimed nicely through our swell window, and the corresponding swell period data suggests we’ll see some excellent surf (with peak periods nudging 13 seconds, which is not a common event out of the east). However the enormous travel distance will erode a significant percentage of the swell’s size, and also create very long breaks between the bigger waves. 

So whilst most beaches will continue to see peaky 2ft+ waves from the mid-range E’ly swell, every twenty minutes or more we’re likely to see a few stray sets nudging 3ft+. But the sheer inconsistency of these waves means it’s difficult to assess their value, when you might only see a handful of them in an ordinary surf session. As such, keep your expectations low. And, the mid-range E’ly swell will be a little smaller south of about Coffs, so keep this in mind between sets across this region. 

Again, winds look good for the morning surf on Wednesday; mainly light/variable and sea breezes throughout the afternoon, with perhaps a little more oomph from the north-east across the Mid North Coast. 

Wednesday’s new long range E’ly groundswell should persist into Thursday, albeit slowly ease throughout the day, and the mid-range E’ly swell will also start to ease. Our model data has a small long period S’ly swell pushing across the Northern NSW coast during the day but the source of this energy seems to be a broad, but poorly aligned frontal progression south of the continent today. As such, I’m not holding out any hope for much more than a couple of feet of refracted groundswell. I’ll keep an eye on Southern NSW surf obs on Wednesday though - if it punches higher above forecast expectations here we may need to revise this upwards. Stay tuned to Wednesday’s forecast for more.

Thursday’s winds should be favourable with light NW tending moderate SW winds as a low forms off the Southern NSW coast. It might get a little windy in the south but most other locations should remain clean for much of the day.

This low off the Southern NSW coast looks like it may be positioned a little too close to the mainland to offer any great surf for our region. The Lower Mid North Coast may see a building trend late Thursday afternoon but the remainder of Northern NSW should see a fresh short range south swell fill in on Friday morning. At this stage it’ll probably be confined to a handful of exposed, reliable south swell magnets with sets in the 3-5ft range, though the extreme southerly (almost S/SW) direction will probably ensure considerably smaller waves just about everywhere else, and virtually nothing north of the border. Winds are expected to be light as the low draws away from the coast though.

We’ll also see a continuation of small mid-range E’ly swell through Thursday and Friday from a minor intensification of the trades SE of New Caledonia on Tuesday and Wednesday. This fetch will initially be slowly retreating (not a good thing for swell production) but it appears the trough will anchor in place through the second half of the week which should set up a small east swell for the weekend. Either way don’t expect much surf across SE Qld on Friday, just a couple of feet of peaky surf at the open beaches under a light variable breeze. 

This weekend (April 2nd - 3rd)

No major surf expected for the weekend, but there’ll be waves.

A stationary trough across the central Tasman Sea later this week should allow a moderate easterly fetch to generate small swells for open beaches, with slow sets in the 2ft range both days. We may see some trailing leftover south swell across exposed Northern NSW beaches early Saturday but it’ll be downwards trend otherwise. 

I’ll also be keeping an eye on a potential tropical system in the Coral Sea over the weekend that is (currently) modelled to track south into our swell window, but it’s a long way off yet so I wouldn’t make any early plans for waves. At best, this system will probably generate a small increase in short range trade swell on Sunday, mainly across the Sunshine Coast (maybe the Gold Coast at a pinch), whilst concurrently increasing SE winds about the coastal margin.

Elsewhere, expect small peaky beachies with mainly light winds. 

Next week (April 4th onwards)

No major systems at this stage but there’s a lot of tropical activity starting to show on the charts. This suggests some form of short range easterly swell event will develop west of about New Caledonian longitudes sometime next week. Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.