Large, large, large E'ly swells inbound for all coasts
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 24th February)
Best Days: Great waves most days, though Friday and Saturday will probbaly be too big (!) for many coasts.
Recap: Slowly building E’ly groundswell from TC Winston reached a peak in the 4-6ft range at exposed spots on Tuesday afternoon, with a very slow easing trend evident today (though it’s still been quite sizeable in some regions, with excellent waves across many of the points). Certainly quite ironic how after weeks and weeks of great summer waves, how pedantic we can be with minor aberrations in the daily surf conditions.
This week (Feb 25th - 26th)
Today’s very slow downwards trend will continue into Thursday morning ahead of several stages of rebuilding E’ly groundswell from TC Winston’s latest phase, as it tracks out of the swell shadow of New Caledonia.
Indeed, the latest ASCAT passes look incredible with a broad radius of 60kt winds around the low aimed reasonably well into our swell window.
TC Winston will essentially downgrade from Cat 2 to Cat 1 over the coming days, but still maintain strength. And, as it undertakes a westerly trajectory we will see a significant ‘captured fetch’ scenario develop that will significantly enhance swell generation.
This kind of synoptic setup is very unusual, in that we essentially have an intense cyclone working on an almost ‘full developed sea state’, courtesy of the supporting feeder ridge to the south, that’s been in place for the last week and a half. Core fetches that travel in the same direction as the swells they are generating always produce significant higher swells than stationary, or retreating fetches - so this already major weather system is expected to really enhance wave heights across the region.
That being said, the models have tightened up the low in recent runs as it tracks towards our coast. This certainly doesn't diminish its swell potential, though I now am of the opinion that the largest waves from TC Winston will probably be confined to a narrower coastal strip than previously anticipated - probably focused around the Far Northern NSW coast (Qld/NSW border through to Ballina or Yamba) - with a more pronounced drop in size to the north and south.
Thursday should see a moderate, steady swell will be accompanied by light variable winds and sea breezes in most areas, trending moderate to fresh NE across the Mid North Coast in the afternoon. Really, not a great change from today in the size department though we may see a minor easing trend through the morning. Probably not much in it though - let’s call it somewhere in the 3-5ft range at exposed beaches, slightly smaller across the outer points. At any other time of the year you'd probably arrange for some flexi-time to capitlise on these kinds of swells and conditions.
Mid-late Thursday afternoon, the first swell front of new energy is expected to arrive, and we may start to see some big sets appearing at exposed locations in the 6ft+ range in the few hours before dusk (there’s a slightly reduced chance of this happening across the Mid North Coast, due to the slightly longer travel distance and thus later arrival time).
On Friday we’re looking at a steady increase in size all day, with most open beaches probably holding somewhere between 6ft and maybe 8ft. The surf will be a little smaller as you track down the various points, but Friday will probably start to become too big for many regions. And some of the more reliable swell magnets in Far Northern NSW should push even bigger than this at times, occasionally 8ft+, maybe bigger near 10ft throughout the afternoon.
As for conditions on Friday - well, they are looking unreal. A weak ridge of high pressure will maintain light variable winds and we should see light to moderate sea breezes at best in the afternoon: don’t be surprised if it remains reasonably clean for much of the day. Just keep in mind that there will be a considerable amount of water moving through the lineup so please take care and choose your location accordingly to your (thoroughly reasoned) ability. It’ll be very easy to find yourself in a lot of trouble in a short space of time.
This weekend (Feb 27th - 28th)
Saturday will see a peak in E’ly swell from TC Winston, and winds are expected to fresh from the SE as Winston tracks north into the Coral Sea, and a ridge pushes along the coast behind it. We should see an early period of light SW winds across many areas but they’ll probably veer S’ly then SE throughout the day.
How big? I’m keeping my expectations steady for Far Northern NSW, with set waves at exposed locations somewhere in the 10-12ft range. However I think it’ll be noticeably smaller across SE Qld and the Mid North Coast (which is a good thing!) - probably more around 8-10ft at exposed locations, and smaller surf down the points. Either way, the only rideable waves for most surfers will be at sheltered corners. This will certainly be one of the biggest easterly groundswells in many years.
Fresh SE winds will persist across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW into Sunday as the ridge remains firm, but a weaker pressure gradient south of Coffs should result in light variable winds and sea breezes across the Mid North Coast. A period of early SW winds are possible in a few locations on Sunday morning but it’ll probably be limited to the southern Gold Coast; maybe one or two other locations.
Surf size will also steadily drop throughout Sunday, down from 6-8ft at first light in Far Northern NSW, to 4-5ft by the afternoon. Across SE Qld and the Mid North Coast, early morning could reveal 4-6ft waves at exposed beaches (smaller on the points) but we will see a similar easing trend throughout the day, down by a couple of feet into the afternoon. SE Qld coasts - especially the Sunshine Coast - will see a building short range SE swell through the day but it’ll probably just full in the gaps of the easing groundswell.
Next week (Mar 1st onwards)
The models have changed around a lot in the last 12-24 hours. Previously, all indications were that TC Winston was going to track into the Tasman Sea and meander around for a bit - continuing to generate strong easterly swells through much of next week - but this scenario has been wiped by some of the latest runs, which push it further north towards Queensland's Capricornia coast and out of our swell window(s).
Anyway, there’s a lot of divergence on the cards for the long term outlook - still with plenty of surf potential though, thanks to a likely broad Tasman high - so let’s concentrate on the incoming swell at hand and worry about next week’s opportunities on Friday.
After all, who knows what the state of the sand banks will be after Saturday’s peak?
See you Friday.
Comments
Ain't it funny how in comparison to the upcoming Eddie swell, this weekend's offerings really don't look that big.
I hope that the sand doesn't get moved around too much, some great banks around. Not holding my breath though.
Ben do you have a post grab saved, from yesterdays and this mornings"Surf Forecast Swell Train Analysis " ! In regards to readings for this, Fri,Sat,Sun and Mon..
Your model this morning was showing East swell as Secondary Swell on Sunday/Mon, Primary was SSE/SE 3.8M I think! .......'?'
Just curious..
Geez they fluctuate heaps, got to keep a good eye on them, intense job, you have.
Cheers
it's a bit of a bummer that ex Winny now tracks north and comes close .......thus making a very small window for big clean conditions.
Maybe early Sat morning first light to 7am might be the window.
Get into it FR, hope you score and have a great sesh.
thanks Fitzy, we'll see how the cookie crumbles
Gggrrrwaaarrrraagghhfffccckkkk!!!!
Worst season ever on the west coast!!!!
Hi Ben, how feasible, given that cyclones are such an unpredictable beast, that the future path could infact drop further south in latitude and "graze/scrape" by a little closer the coast than currently anticipated ?
Would this scenario not give areas north of (by then) low's center pretty intense offshore winds ontop of a very active sea/swell?
Probably way off for various reasons but would be fantastic to hear why not ?
Anything's possible.. But my notes are based on an interpretation of the broader model guidance. So until we see a swing in some other direction, I'm sticking with what I have above.
Is this swell likely to wreck the banks for the Quikky Pro?
ill be asking sheepdog for some photos of the action on the SC Friday! Saturday's southerly winds should see Noosa absolutely rammed
WARNING; WARNING; WARNING; make no mistake, TC Winston is a killer!
For those who are about to enter the mystic, do not over estimate your abilities. Your WTF moment may be your last.
Forecast surf conditions will be dangerous.
Huey takes no prisoners.
Should the eddie be relocated ?
To the pass at byronmaia bay.
Might be a few few wash throughs, so they best be careful.
Ha Ha ha. ....Meanwhile Sunshine Coast continues to be smashed by huge and dangerous 3ft swells.......
haha but according to the commercial radio and news its 6ft today??
still fun but on the SC
Southport Buoy has fallen off a cliff. Consistency is well down on the GC. It's gonna be quite a turnaround if we are to hit the Friday target
Friday's target has nothing to do with today's happening. The current swell is/was always the backside of Tuesday's pulse. Friday's expected increase is a seperate, new swell that cannot be validated in any way against what's in the water today.
Didn't mean to draw your ire, Ben - wasn't a slight at the forecast. Was hoping to get some solid stuff before it got monstrous, but it seems it'll go from small to huge in almost an instant based on where we stand now. I suppose the captured fetch/ active sea state scenario means the forerunners are basically the same size as the peak?
I didn't take it that way - was just trying to point out that in this instance the two days are not related. But, Friday's waves will be a little more closely related to Saturday's so you could draw a line between those two if you want (i.e. if Friday underperforms, it may be a sign of Saturday underperforming.. but not always).
Anyway, I just had unreal clean beachies - 'tis a good 4ft on the sets at exposed Tweed beachies this morning (smaller where I surfed).
... and now the models have the system sucking back up North? Not slingshotting down to NZ
thats been on the cards for a few days now kaiser.
bummer because it'll drag the onshore flow in just at the peak of the swell.
Ben - Congrats to Swellnet for the responsibility of this commentary (below). Too many get pumped, charged out only to discover that they are not prepared physically or mentally for the challenge. Surfing big waves is not about 'balls of steel', rather a healthy respect for the unknown. Bravo.
"As for conditions on Friday - well, they are looking unreal. A weak ridge of high pressure will maintain light variable winds and we should see light to moderate sea breezes at best in the afternoon: don’t be surprised if it remains reasonably clean for much of the day. Just keep in mind that there will be a considerable amount of water moving through the lineup so please take care and choose your location accordingly to your (thoroughly reasoned) ability. It’ll be very easy to find yourself in a lot of trouble in a short space of time. "
Thanks TUT.. yeah even on the 4-5ft days around here whenever there's long range cyclone energy in the mix the amount of water moving around has been incredible. Doesn't have to be big to be dangerous.
Again, that's a parameter that wave buoys simply don't record. Would love to delve more into this.
Some of the rips around here have been amazing, you can see the sand dragged a k out to sea.
And that thing I was banging on about last week is there to see again. The distance on the graph between the two T traces is getting closer, and the junky windswell is out of it today
Bingo. The bigger the disparity between the two T's the more wobble is in the swell.
What are you 'banging on about'? That just means there's less windswell. Doesn't offer any other insight.
Yeah, remember old mate thought you might be able to get more info out of the graphs. I think this would be a simple start.
If Tp jumps to (say) 15 seconds right now, and there's still no local wind (and therefore windswell) Tz will remain the same - perhaps increase slightly - and the gap between Tp and Tz will widen considerably, destroying your theory.
Ben, been thinking about this, I think it was in recent comments about the general power of the swell from the cyclones vs big southerly swells etc. I suspect that the simplest answer is probably the best. One contributor mentioned that the swell angle was probably key, given that the coast gets hit more by big southerly swells than cyclone swells, and has developed accordingly in terms of sand, beaches, headlands etc. I think swell angle is the key, but not for those reasons.
I am thinking of another very simple factor, that being that if it the swell is being generated directly from the east, hitting square, then you are exposed to all its energy, and also it provides less escape routes for the water, leading to a lot of water movement. It's the same principle as the winter sun versus the summer sun. It isn't that the sun is hotter or closer to earth, it's that the same amount of rays hitting at an angle are 'spent' over a larger land area. Similarly, the east direction swell will concentrate all its energy per square metre, whereas each angle of refraction off square starts to distribute the same energy over a wider area. This would be something that could be mapped mathematically (angle of divergence from square equals x % of total swell energy)
Consequence, cyclone swells (east) pound for pound will have much more punch, and water movement, than south quadrant swells, even if the numbers are the same (height, period etc). This would be true even if the beach is south facing on a southerly swell, as depper water bathymetry would bend the swell somewhat and refract the energy despite locally being square to the swell direction.
As a solution, it is both elegant, neat, and probably wrong!
But it's better than anything else I've come up with so far, or anything I've read. :-)
After just returning from Bali where I witnessed some amazing contrast between swell heights on the SW coast compared to the SE coast under a SW groundswell (ie more swell on the SE coast than SW coast) I'm even moree a massive believer in underwater bathymetry bending/funnelling swells!!!
All comes down to good bathy data, which is hard to find and expensive to produce.
Sure, it's no surprise to me that a simple solution to the problem wouldn't appeal. Be aware though that as specialists you will have a tendency to find a reason far more complicated than likely. Occam's Razor!
Batfink, I think you are spot on with your explanation.
I don't think ocean waves can carry any other characteristics (like more 'punch') besides wave length and amplitude.
Speed, period, wave energy etc are just different ways of expressing the same characteristics.
Plenty of fun beachies around this morning, 3ftish, offshore and no-one out.
Here here Sprout. Was messy early when the wind was dead calm but was game on as soon as the south-westerly picked up a bit. Remarkable what a difference a 5 knot offshore breeze can make compared to no breeze, particularly when it's been light onshore for most of the night.
Looking forward to tomorrow.
And this is exactly the reason why Autumn is so much better than summer. Summer overnight temps just don't get down enough below the water temps, or earlier enough throughout the night to allow the offshores to kick in for a 3-4hrs and clean up the previous days wobble. Autumn does this beautifully in SE Qld and this is why Autumn swells appear to perform so much better (on open beaches I'm talking about).
Yeah this summer is definitely an exception to the rule where there have been many epic days but Autumn is definitely my favourite time of the year, you can find empty bliss on the open beaches, just you and your mates
Bingo!!!
jeez Don, this isn't the summer to be whinging.
been plenty of super clean swells and clean mornings.
I wasn't whinging Steve. Merely pointing out why Autumn swells appear less wobbly.
Sorry, Don.... But I'm with FR on this.... To even have "less wobbly" autumn swells in one's brain space during one of the longest runs of point surf in recent history may be showing you are getting blaze about the endless surf you've had..... Mind you, I could be wrong... I'm in S.A and not on the beach up there......
Nearly at the airport.... Soooo looking forward to Free rides 12 to 15 foot.... 10 to 12 foot is probably the biggest waves I've had.... So this should be unreal.....
Dog, unlike you, when new information comes to hand I adjust my call to it, rather than spending hours, days and weeks ducking, weaving and trying to prove why being wrong is right. I very quickly downgraded that call to 10-12ft when it became obvious Winston was going to weaken and undergo ETT before the recurve, which is exactly what is happening.
Looking at the latest ASCAT and speed of movement and I'm having doubts about that. Still think there'll be 10 ft sets at the Ox Sat morning but the wind is a concern.
Why the concern over the wind Steve? GFS looking great for your local I would have thought?
20-30knot S'lies for Sat morning is not ideal.
Agree not perfect but should be fine for your local i would have thought?
That's a lot of cross- shore wind for a ten foot swell.
You're joking right? I adjust my calls... Not often, well not as often as you.... But I do..... You just brush my adjustments aside... So you get the same back.....
12 to 15 foot....... An outlandish call to start with.... I was cackling when I read it...... I'll stick with 8 to 10 foot with the odd bigger bomb....
And no Steve, I'm not on the east coast...... I'm just hangn with the brown snakes, eating abalone ;)
. double post...
but yeah, see you on the rocks Sat morning. Good luck on that 6'10". There's a rex flight landing early, be happy to give you a ride if you need it. Got an 8footer under the house if you want to actually catch a wave.
fuck... How big a board do you wanna ride in 8 to 10 foot, Steve? I don't do mals.....
Feck me, one can't even post a comment on something unrelated to "The swell of the decade" without getting their dick chewed off. Couldn't give a flying feck about this swell coming on Sat. There will be less than a handful of spots on SE Qld/Nth NSW that will handle this swell/wind combo and you can bet your nut every tom dick and fecking harry will be at those carparks an hr before dawn on Sat.
I've also just come back from 5 days surfing in Bali where I didn't have to deal with fecking crowded waves like here.
Give me a perfect 3-4ft A frame beachie any day of the week over what's coming this Sat. Does nothing for me whatsoever, and to think that the good banks that we have are likely to be ruined post Sat, it's not what I wished for this time of year whatsoever.
.
I wouldn't chew your dick, Don..... Just pointing out how lucky you've been....... Now free ride...... I wouldn't flop it out in front of him, Donny..... He'd argue whether its 4 inches, 6 inches, 8 inches, do you measure it from the side, the top, underneath, when its flacid, erect, semi erect........
Donny, Can you please say "fuck" just once?
Sorry guys it's just that the email police at work block it so I've just learnt to spell it "feck" automatically now. Just pretend I'm Irish!!
Anyway here ya go, just cause I'm a nice guy......FUCK!!!
Totally agree !!
I'e checked the Coolum points themselves and it was garbage, so, you're right... You could be wrong
Don!!!! DON!!!!!!!!! DONNY!!!!!!!! Why do you only attack some folk for "naming names"?????? What sort of fucking show are you running here?????
Nice work, Mitch...... Btw, there's a 15 knot easterly onshore shit wind blowing..... And the big swell hasn't even hit yet!!!!! What did you expect???
On Tuesday... There was a pulse forecast and it did hit down south apparently, but nothing to write home about here. Thought might get some protection behind the point there. Not so good
Yeah there was a small pulse tuesday arvo... Not exactly big.... And it was a 20k se to ese..... Cant see that working....
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60901/IDQ60901.94569.shtml
anyone seeing that the ASCAT is maybe showing a little less of a remarkable scenario - ie, maybe this swell will be a bit unders? hoping not, want to see noosa get gnarly to keep the crowds down a little. Will be interesting to see what the next two days bring!
ASCAT's not the only thing showing significant underdone-ings!!!
Haha same here mate, see you and 300 others on Sat morning.
With all this warning of large swell the experts have decided to start pumping sand onto Maroochydore/Alex today !!!
Hope when it gets dragged back out to sea tomorrow it forms some kind of bank for us.
where are they getting the sand from?
Maroochy river mouth, prepping for clubbie aussie titles in April
No beach = no competition
Must be cotton tree in the m'dore river. I saw them pumping yesterday. Noted a pretty big deep hole near the boat shed on the weekend surounding the dredge anchored there. (Bigger and deeper than usual that is)
Yeah they're getting it from the river mouth. This round of pumping was supposed to be for two weeks. They may have to start again after the weekend.
What sort of size does anyone think we will see first light on the sunny coast tomorrow?
Not sure based on current obs, but from what Ben has mentioned this is the lemon next to the pie and is no indication on what is to come.
Looking forward to greeting all the tourists inbound on the weekend and listening to them say "no one owns the beach", please...go to Noosa, I hear it will be all time!
10 year swell....front page news!
Yea thats why i asked the question its not showing its teeth yet! I was hoping we might get a nice 4ft with the light winds early on tomorrow before it builds too much!
its a shame we are going to have pretty strong southerlies saturday i would have loved to have watched a few exposed spots try and handle that size!
Oh there's a couple of places on the sunny coast that can handle 8 to 10 foot, mate...... But as you said, strong southerlies..... That fucks both spots.....
Still really interested to see whether its worth shooting for Agnes. With 25 knot south eastealies, does this help create an active sea state for the long range swell. Its not a good sign when the sc daily threatens a pro surfer invasion, maybe I'm starting to understand why don goes mental at the mention of the n word. Think outside the pot s coasters. Or are we all going to paddle out cause we're all jdubs mates via intagram?
Are you on the sunny coast drom?
not trying to sandbag you mate but I wouldn't bother.....you really need a system drifting down from the Coral Sea towards Agnes, preferably close range. Or a strong SE surge.
It is a bummer that this swell will peak with strong S'lies because contrary to what is being said here, there are heaps, well maybe not heaps but multiple spots that will handle the size- if you've got the boards, balls and fitness to paddle out to the bloody things.
But with strong S'lies you'll pretty much have to run away from the swell.
Double or Granites with everyone else lol.
This has to have been the most over hyped swell ever, last 5 days at Ti tree have been below average, worst crowds I've seen in my 30 years of surfing and living here.Cyclone swells suck, always have up here it's just a red flag to suck in every drop kick that owns a surfboard.There I feel better now,,,,bring on tomorrow.
What about up to DP ? That would have to beat the crowd.
It's amazing that no one has mentioned jet skis in all of these conversations. I'll bet you there's a few being put on towballs this arvo.
Towballs ? I wonder if they will be towing into the waves that would be heroic !
Hahahaaaa...
"Certainly quite ironic how after weeks and weeks of great summer waves, how pedantic we can be with minor aberrations in the daily surf conditions."
Ironic? No chance ... just selfish and fuckin' addicted!
Meanwhile, down in Vicco, after looking at day after day after day of perfect looking waves on the Qld cams for what seems like months now, news of a once in a decade east swell in the Tasman has me heading to my dunny to fucken spew up.
You seen your forecast notes? 6ft and NE'ly on Tues
Nature does what it does Donweather! Down here on the Southern Mid Nth Coast it was again shitty! Come on Huey turn it on!
Cyclone Yali(?) was the biggest and best I've surfed/seen at Boiling Pot in the 18 years I've been here. Was still packed to the brim with 100's of jockeys all paddling for the shoulder!
Mate of mine was at Burleigh this evening, seems the first few sets started to show shortly before sundown, looks to be somewhere close to 6ft.
Anyone else see any new sets late this arvo?
I checked a couple of spots around the tweed coast on the way home from work but saw nothing remotely near 6ft. 3-4ft was about the best of it on the sets.
That's what I saw (4ft ish ) when I came past around 5:30pm.
Apparently these bigger sets were pushing through just before dark.
Watched for about half an hour until it was too dark. Saw nothing over 4 ft GC open beach. Couple guys bodybashing the outer bank which was heaving. Long, straight and inconsistent.
I swung into the car park at a local point just after 6:30pm, admittedly I only watched for around 10 mins so its certainly feasible there were bigger sets around, but consistency might be the issue.
Driving home from work could have sworn I saw a decent set of lines hitting sunshine beach
Watched Moffs for 10 min on dusk. Nada. Smaller even...
Same half an hour ago. Moon looked cool though.
yeah, it was showing here late. definitely muscled up. might have even been a step-ladder set just on dark.
late increase in all the Byron buoy parameters
The graph has barely deviated... And the spectral data says swell is coming from 060
Lot more energy and water moving through the pass and into the bay on dark
An hour before dark, Kirra was still getting smaller.
Surfed alex from about 3pm untill 5pm..coupple of sets about 5+ft while i was out.biggest set came through just after my last wave (solid 6ft set... maybe ?) as I heading for the camera.waited for another for 15 to 20 min and no set hence-photo.
Gave up ...went to car and a sett not quit as big rolled throigh.
Maroochy, wind just gone wsw at 6k..... Tewantin ssw at 4k.... Slight bump in buoy data.... 11 seconds.... Cross fingers land breeze continues, people...
Up late crunching the data there SD. Or at the airport waiting for your flight hahaha.
Tp has finally kicked to 15 seconds at the Tweed buoy a few hours ago (last night's pulse must have been mid-range energy?).
Starting to muscle up nicely across the surfcams now. Will be interesting to see how big it gets today.
interesting here. There's definitely new energy in the water but it's still got a lazy look to it. Sub 5 knot northerly; glassy lumpy surface conditions.
3-5ft is a generous call but no doubt that will be dwarfed later.
edit: was wondering what report would say. 5-6ft is again laughably inaccurate but because the last 2 days have been so over-called I guess there's no head room to call this morning correctly either.
Well its easy 5ft and real strong long ene lines here,maybe even a touch bigger on a couple sets,you can feel the power thru your feet standing on the beach.
Coffs?
nth coffs Steve
Steve. I'd say from looking at the obs 5-6ft is easily a good call this morning. If not 6ft+ by now across SE QLD open beaches.
The ons?
I'm talking about the Ballina report Don....and comparing it to my long surveillance this morning. I've got no doubt it will build through the incoming tide but right now I'm calling it as I see it.
Just a note on E groundy's : the biggest waves aren't found on open beaches like a tradewind swell but exposed Points which stick further out and which can focus the swell line better as it first feels the coast. Or exposed rivermouth bars.
Snapper etc etc, OUtside Cape Byron, Tweed bar, Ballina bar, Seaway, Pin etc etc.
Light N'ly flow continuing, might have a look at outside Tallows....that will definitely be showing the biggest of this swell.
Period climbing pretty sharply on the Byron buoy right now.
I agree with that.
About the buoys.
You're obviously taking Sheepy on a tour after the airport pick up :D
I think Sheepy missed the plane....shame, I picked up a sixie of humble pies from Billienudgel last night for the after surf grinds
Easily 6ft+ here. Biggest I have seen it in a long while. Super clean too.
6ft coming through at Burleigh every 5-8 mins. Clean but sectiony as the bank split in two at the cove a couple weeks ago. Haven't seen anyone make a wave yet but lots pulling into big pits. Snapped boards and leashes aplenty
Saw two guys jump off the rocks and by the time I walked back to the car they were walking up the foot path, never got out. Timing is everything
No N'ly caca on it up there Ben?
Hows that reef near your place looking, the one where you quite often take photos?
Someone needs to clean the cams!!
Fair bit of hype for the type of swell that we get down here every couple weeks or so ;-)
Water is washing right up and around the scaffolding at snapper and it's not even high tide. I'd hate to think what will happen tomorrow with a peak in swell and high tide
Yeah looks to be in trouble! Dismantle on low?
Dismantle? Only took a week to get to this stage. Would take a long time to get down. As long as the foundations are set in against the bedrock, and there's nothing on the top decks, they'll be fine.
Many years ago when I was on-site forecasting for the Quik Preo we had a nasty hybrid system (actually, we had 2 of these in 3 years!) and with the approaching threat they just took off all of the walls to let the wind blow through. Seemed to work fine.
Got some pics, will put up shortly. 'Tis clean as a whistle here though, no northerly wobble.
Surface conditions on the sunny coast this morning look absolutely blissful.... Overnight offshores..... Those who got up early and are paddle fit would've scored epic reefs, wedges, and maybe an open ocean point before the tide filled in..
Muscled up, lining up better and more consistent now. Crowd a quarter the size. Prick to get out
Don't ask where
Haha, know where ya at Shorey, yew!
So much water moving around with the high tide.
Some pics here:
https://www.swellnet.com/photos/swellnet-sessions/intermission-over-here...
went nutso just before 8. seemed to go straight from 4ft to 6-8ft. Big thick lines, with a faint n'ly blowing into it.
rock off was evil, really evil.
Fucken almost exact same up here. Except about 9.20-9.50 ish qld time. 4.5 to easily more than 6. Just started washing through, with a few goodens in between, even copped some step ladder sets haha.
6-8ft reports from the Gold Coast now.. awesome! Really starting to kick in.
Bit off a bit more then i could chew. Some real soild sets coming in Take care all.
Super fun at Burleigh this morning, Thank you Winston. Plenty of waves as well :) Shame the wind has come up.
Some bombs on the tweed bar a couple of skis running around I guess whipping in surfers ?
Fun fun waves early on the low tide. Was epic to watch Derek Hynd perform his magic
Solid sets on the Tweed Bar. Hard to put a size on it with no-one out but 8ft would be a reasonable ball park right now.
Wow and it's set to nearly double in size by midday tomorrow, maybe this is the spot to watch some tow in magic over currumbin alley? I'm betting the headlines on the news tomorrow night will be the beach erosion from the morning high tide
Double in size by tomorrow? Not quite.
Heres some scale for you.
So if its 8ft now how big is it going to get tomorrow ? Werent some of us calling for it to get to 15ft ? Fr76 , sheepdogg ?
Nor-Easter had killed it by 10am. Shame we didn't get a proper clean window cause it would've been epic.
Winston chance to reform into a Cat 1.
I think I saw a 10foot set out the back of Cape Byron... Hard to say withing to scale it.
Just spoke to long time and very popular guy from these pages..... Sent me photo... I wont post.... Needless to say, Epic sesh' was had at exposed sunny coast reef/point.... A touch of wobble, but insane barrels and some true carnage.... A place not for the faint hearted...
Fr did you get the ds quad back out there yet ? Sheepy is calling it a mal
Didn't know comic relief was a strong point of yours, Cam'..... Multi talented indeed... ;)
Re tomoz...... 20 up to 30k of south wind..... Really dont know anywhere on the sunny coast that can deal with that and an 8 to 10 foot with bigger bombs scenario.... Where I pointed MF into today would handle it in an offshore or glass situation.... Early will be lighter sw to south maybe..... So could be a very tiny dawn window...... Otherwise it'll be "you know where" with 1000 mung beans scattered through a tapered swell.... The most outer will possibly be wide.... The next one in could be serious....
Then there's the high tide option in the middle of town....
Ok mate we get that you know the breaks on the sunshine coast, like everyone else.
Not sure why you feel compelled to carry on naming places like some guru every time there might be a wave on the coast. It’s nothing mysto. I’d hate to hear the crap you come out with after a few beers at the pub.
Don't argue with the dawg, he knows everything and has an opinion that is right with everything, just ask him. He'll tell ya.
Jack of all trades, expert at nothing..............
Are you some kind of retard, or are you shark shits toy boy? Where did I name a break, fucktard? Point out where I actually named a break......
Last night, mitch vg named a break
He wrote "I'e checked the Coolum points themselves"...... Well? Did you whinge?
umunga names a break - "decent set of lines hitting sunshine beach"..... Where's Boms????
Mitch vg names another sunny coast break - "Watched Moffs for 10 min on dusk"
Heffo 78 names a sunny coast break - "Surfed alex from about 3pm untill 5pm..coupple of sets about 5+ft"
Now, mung bean..... Countless breaks named.... Really named....... Point out where I name a break......
I directed a well respected member of the swellnut brigade to epic waves this morning, via private message.... There were 10 guys out... You weren't one of them..... Neither was shark shit....... My home town bro....... Are you one of these new " 4 year locals" on the sunny coast? Cos the true old timers roll with it.. It's only the blow ins that have moved into place like peregian springs or the town of "seaside" that wank on like you and fish turd, buddy....
Point out where I name a name, .... Cmon......
This morning, Sunshine coast..... Photo courtesy of Mick Free..
You’re not so cryptic clues about known but out of the way places on every post? Is it just a way of pumping yourself up pretending like you used to be the home town charger ‘back in the day’?
You claim your local but you don’t live here.. flying in for a over hyped swell like every other blow in.
But its ok. you rip and everyone in the line-up will know your name when you come back for your annual week long summer beach holiday.
Here's the difference between you and me, .... I help people.. You don't... When have you ever given any helpful advice here? You're just another sea sponge.... .... And do you honestly think I give a shit what you think?
It's pumping and here you are typing away.... I'm in S.A... Howling onshore.... But there you are, with the outer points pumping, 6 foot plus groundswell...... Low tide..... south easterlies...... Pretender.....
Shark shit is calling..... Says your decaff is is ready....
Yeah sheepdip, you're a local of everywhere in oz, Yorkys Knob (an aptly named home for you), SC, GC, Tas & now SA. Probably a few others too. Have you ever lasted more than a few years in one spot, LOCAL???
How was you 6' swell call of a few weeks ago???? Oh, that's right, it finally came...................one day. Anyone could call that.
That's it, sit at home and drink your hot choc/caramel/vanilla latte.
Dipshit
Where is that?!?
I'm kidding !!!!
I'm not kidding curls'..... It's golden beach, taken from a high rise.... Pretty average day there actually...... Bahahahaha ;)
Ask Bums or shark turd, curly..... They're "the helpful locals" now..... They'd know from the photo angle, direction, time of day where it is.... Pretty sure it's golden beach shorey...... :p
Don't even name a person Sheepio, FFS?
Hello champ chill out buddy
Hope you been scoring, welly.... Hey man have you seen the rave??? I know his pc fucked up and he could be stuffed replacing.... Sent me an email from the gatta library a few weeks ago..... Think his neck is even more fucked..... Have you seen him around?
Tweed buoy looks lovely. Been watching sets break out on the horizon at 9 Mile from the office. Must be massive out there. Wonder if anyone's giving it a crack? Though I'm pretty certain it's a south swell spot.
Funky winds around 9.30am on the banana coast. That said, some more than handy options on selected back beaches.
Is that near 3@15 ben ?
Indeed Camel. Tis quite solid 'round here.
Yes Caml.
U gotta get smaller rear fins a try , even webby has admitted it . Hopefully you have some real waves to let it rip upon
Interesting point: buoy data supports the theory that this swell will be focused mainly in the Tweed-to-Yamba region. M'Ba, Gold Coast and Brisbane buoys are much smaller than the Tweed buoy. Can't trust Byron buoy right now though.
Lines, lines, lines on the Sunny Coast. Though Noosa is still only small (!).
Apparently it's starting to get a little too big for the Mid North Coast too. Lots of water moving around.
Wash-throughs at Kirra now as we approach the bottom of the tide.
Any idea on why nationals is so small? Bathymetry? Swell angle should be ok I would have thought.
Where I surfed this morning was pretty solid, so was surprised to see Noosa so small. I'm sure the other bays have a few waves...
It needs a true ene swell....... Or a huge east swell..... An east swell gets tapered by the outer points..... And if both outer points are stacked with sand, the tapering is more severe.... Below is a pic that shows how the next point affects east swell... i wont name that point, coz I dont wanna feed the trolls lol.... But I'm sure you can figure it out.. You can also see how even a hint if ene changes the whole game.... Traditional lows or cyclones moving down the qld coast from the tropics are the best for the inner points, as ene swell is generated when passing east of Fraser Is.....
Yeah, figured as much.
Thanks for not naming that next mysto secret point :P
yeah i know..... I'd hate to be the one to blow the name on that most secret of secret spots!!!! Hope you get a few, bumsie lol
unfortunately i have to mow the lawn for the next 3 days
How's all of the algae at Noosa!
That red bloom out the back looks a little troublesome too.
coral spawn after the full moon
Coral spawn is only around October, this is more than likely re algae, Rhodophyta.
Yep, or trichodesmium
Just watched the current world champ struggle to paddle out at snapper. So much water moving around
That makes me feel a little better.
S.E. wind now most spots
Looks to have backed off a touch here, enabling some paddleouts.
Sorry to spam but anyone looking for post surf grinds in the Byron area should get ing to Broken Head hall: my brother is running a pop-up Mexican cantina there tonight. Food will be epic and there'll be a rootsy surf vibe happening. Pretty sure you can bring your own beer.
Mmmm.... Mexican..... then Fr's famous humble pies for late night supper.... Shoulda' booked that ticket.....
Whos' calling who a Mexican .......... I'm pretty sure a few of our southern brothers have jetted up that way .... you'll know who they are as they still wear rubber .... and most likely not overwelmed by the lack of size .
Will there be spam in the can, mexican style?
Sharkshit and Bom thinks Sheepio's the spam in the can at the moment;)
Don't you mean Boogie fever and jellyflater bahahahahaha....... :p
Hahaha. Whos trolling now sheepshit?? Youll never change...
Any one else get worked today besides me?? hahaha.
Took me three attempts to get out if that makes you feel better
Took thirty on the head
Beside the wall at south straddie you new it was a big period swell there was some water moving . It was bat on to ball Haydos
Tried to paddle out at big groin Kirra and ended up in Bilinga faster than I could have gotten there by car. Did not make it out the back, and when I gave up and paddled to catch a wall of white water back to shore, it threw me clear out in front of the wave when it reformed. I landed it in a stylish belly-flop, then managed to get up and surf the reform.
there is enough lull to get out on the mid north coast.
Checked a certain point inside a point inside a point somewhere north of peregian springs just b4 dark.... certainly picked up! Swells finally swingin round enough....solid lines. Cant wait for tomorrow.... gonna b boiling.....boiling hot!!! Yewwwwww.