South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 22nd February)

Best Days: Tues/Wed: great waves across the SE Qld points, and also south of Coffs where winds should be lighter. Thurs: slight lull in activity for the first half of the day with mainly light winds north of Byron Bay. Fri/Sat/Sun: potentially a very large E'ly swell, with only hellman options across the coast.  

Recap: The weekend ended up being reasonable in some areas; generally quite workable both days but holding it up against the lens of the last few weeks, the surf was certainly several notches below the quality we’ve become so very used to. Overall, the swell trend was slowly down all weekend (more rapidly from the south, than from the east) though a short range SE swell lifted wave heights through Sunday and into this morning through SE Qld. Saturday delivered leftover 3-4ft waves out of the east with light to moderate NE winds that became fresh south of Byron at times. Winds went E’ly overnight then fresh SE through Sunday as a ridge built across the coast, leaving a mix of easing E’ly swell and rebuilding SE swell in the 2-3ft range. This size range has nudged up slowly into today (now showing 3-4ft across SE Qld) as we await a renewal of strong groundswell from TC Winston.

This week (Feb 23rd - 26th)

Gotta keep the froth levels at bay. But jeez, it’s hard with such an incredible synoptic chart and forecast maps on hand.

For the short term, we have to be careful to remember that the waves we’re going to see over the next few days will have been generated by TC Winston’s developments late last week and over the weekend. Under these scenarios - where the forecast charts are at the forefront of everyone’s mind - it’s easy to up the ante and forget that swells generated near Fiji take around two or more days to reach the mainland (even more from locations further east). 

Right now, TC Winston has actually pushed up inside the swell shadow of New Caledonia. But it’s expected to track south over the coming days, re-enter our swell window and then retrograde westward towards out coast. 

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. 

Right now, we’re seeing the surf muscle up across the coast though the wave buoys don’t really reflect the surfcam observations - peak swell periods of just 8 seconds are showing at most buoys. With TC Winston’s weekend travels exhibiting core winds of 60kts+, we should be seeing much more than this (our model has a kick of 13 seconds expected this afternoon, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a little more than this, around 14-15 seconds).

Nevertheles, this easterly pulse is expected to fill in throughout Tuesday and provide solid waves across all coastlines into Wednesday morning before easing slightly throughout the day and into Thursday morning. Most locations should hover around 4-6ft at the height of the swell (Tuesday afternoon, maybe early Wednesday) and we’ll probably lose a foot or so through Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. Expect slightly smaller waves running down the various points. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw bigger bombs at some of the more reliable swell magnets up and down the coast (mainly Northern NSW, specifically the Northern Rivers region) however I’m going to cap my expectations at the occasional 6ft+ bomb across these spots. I think TC Winston’s large distance from the mainland over the weekend (while it was east of Fiji) was a little too far to warrant anything much greater than this. Don’t worry though, bigger surf is to come.

As for conditions for the next few days, a strong ridge through the Coral Sea will maintain fresh SE winds across most regions north of Yamba on Tuesday, with light variable winds tending moderate SE south of here. This airstream will ease a little into Wednesday as the ridge relaxes, though SE Qld will still see moderate to fresh SE winds throughout the day. 

Periods of early SW winds are likely in the mornings; initially just a few locations (i.e. Coolangatta) on Tuesday, extending to a broader coverage on Wednesday thanks to the weakening ridge. NE sea breezes are expected south of Coffs on Wednesday afternoon. 

Thursday morning’s temporary ‘abatement’ - if you can call it that, given it’ll still likely be a little bigger than the climatic surf size average for this time of the year - will be accompanied light variable winds across most regions. An approaching southerly change across the SE corner of the country will strengthen northerly winds across Northern NSW throughout the day, though their influence is not likely to reach much further north than Byron Bay (if it does, it’ll only be light to moderate in strength anyway). 

Very late Thursday afternoon is where we’re expecting to see a strong renewal of E’ly groundswell, even E/NE if anything, originating from TC Winston’s southward emergence from the swell shadow of New Caledonia on Tuesday. At this stage I don’t think we’ll see any new swell until mid-late afternoon at the earliest - so expect it’s unlikely that we’ll see much of an upwards trend until the last few hours of the day.

Nevertheless, at this stage its possible that we could see a decent push north of 6ft and possibly into the 8ft range at exposed coasts right on dark , mainly around SE Qld and Far Noerthern NSW. Locations south of here will see the swell arriving a little later so it'll probably push through after dark. I’ll firm up the timing in Wednesday's notes. 

In any case, Friday will see this swell showing much more strongly. Most exposed coasts should see strong lines of swell of around 6-8ft at times, and as per the Tues/Wed pulse, reliable swell magnets - mainly in Northern NSW - are likely to push a little higher than this (8ft+, maybe 10ft bombs). Surf size will obviously be smaller down the regional points but based on current data, this particular pulse looks to be the biggest east swell we will have seen in some time. So make sure you're well aware of your own capabilities before paddling out, as it'll be very easy to find yourself in a lot of trouble in a short space of time.

Friday’s winds are currently tricky to pin down with a weak, stalled trough currently expected off the Southern NSW coast that may influence the Mid North Coast, but result in light variable winds elsewhere. 

Either way it could be shaping up to be an incredible day of large clean waves in many areas - but let’s give it another couple of days to firm up as I’m certainly not 100% on local conditions. And if TC Winston doesn’t perform as currently modeled over the coming days, then these figures will be up for a revision.

But yeah - it's got the froth levels right up there at the moment.

This weekend (Feb 27th - 28th)

The weekend’s forecast is based on an assumption that TC Winston will recurve to the west during the second half of this week. Whilst the models are in broad agreement about this general pattern, they differ on just how close it’ll come to the coast. 

This will influence event wave heights, and also local conditions. A path near the mainland would result in much higher surf, but also fresh to strong S/SE winds; a slower path remaining in the central/northern Tasman Sea would create a little less size but much more manageable winds. 

But let’s not kid ourselves - the ‘little less size’ from the second solution is still much bigger than any easterly swell seen in these waters in several years. The first solution could result in a once-in-a-decade kind of swell event.

At this time I’m not sure which way to lead, as there are plausible arguments for both outcomes. 

Either way, we are looking at a weekend of very big surf, that will probably overpower just about every major coastline and only provide a handful of rideable options at super protected points breaks. The volume of water moving around will be incredible so it’s really only going to be suitable for very experienced surfers. 

To put a size on it, I’m reasonably confident that exposed swell magnets will see occasional 10-12ft sets at some point over the weekend. Surf size will be smaller across broader coasts (i.e. 8-10ft), and protected points will certainly have their work cut out with smaller but still unusually large surf on offer. 

Let’s take a close look on Wednesday. But right now, it’s shaping up to be quite a spectacle.

Next week (Mar 1st onwards)

Amazingly, the models have TC Winston - probably a former cyclone by this time - still generating swell for our region through the first half of next week. But we’re out into model fantasy land right now, and there are too many unknown variables that could trend the data one way or the other.

However, it’s unlikely that surf will be in any short supply next week. The only concern is what this endless round of big E’ly swell will do to the sand across the points. 

See you Wednesday.