South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 15th February)

Best Days: Great waves almost every day. We're looking at fresh S'ly winds reaching the Mid North Coast later Tues, and occupying all coasts Wed (so, you'll need to aim for the points), but other than that we should see light variable winds and sea breezes Tues/Thurs/Fri and maybe Sat. Plenty of east swell each and every day plus a solid S'ly swell Thurs/Fri in Northern NSW. And plenty of easterly swell Sun thru' mid-next week. 

Recap: I’m pretty happy with Friday’s forecast, with most regions coming in very close to expectations. We did see a small increase in trade swell throughout Saturday, with SE Qld beaches building from 3ft to 3-4ft, but wave heights were smaller south of Ballina. Surf size then eased from Sunday morning down by a foot or so into the afternoon. Winds were moderate to fresh out of the S/SE all weekend but periods of lighter S/SW winds were observed early mornings at a few locations. A new E/NE swell associated with TC Tatiana then arrived overnight Sunday, producing clean 3-5ft surf across the Sunshine Coast and 3-4ft surf on the Gold Coast today, with again smaller wave heights as you travelled further south from Ballina. Winds were light SW early morning in most areas but have swung fresh S thru’ SE this afternoon, confining the best waves to the various regional outer points. 

This week (Feb 16th - 19th)

So, TC Tatiana has come and gone. It weakened over the weekend, and although still looks good on the synoptic analysis, the strongest winds are on its western flank aimed straight up towards PNG. So, wave heights are expected to ease slowly overnight and through Tuesday from this source.

However, we won’t see that much of a drop in size on Tuesday.

Further east in our swell window, TC Winston developed quite impressively over the weekend, displaying up to 60-70kts within a considerable width around its core, reaching Cat 3 but since weakening to Cat 2.

Unfortunately, these winds were located on Winston’s south-west (aimed towards Vanuatu) and north-east (aimed towards New Zealand) flanks. Winston’s southerly then south-east track was also unfavourably aligned for East Coast swell potential - originating from its core - so I have generally discounted these primary fetches for most of these forecast notes.

That being said, as TC Winston tracked south, it ridged up against a strong Tasman high, broadening an impressive 30-35kt fetch in the north-eastern Tasman Sea. This is generating a strong renewal of easterly trade swell that will fill in from Tuesday onwards, and then continue to provide waves all the way through until probably next week.

The only downside with this fetch is that TC Winston has slowly tracked eastwards over the last few days, away from the coast, and is expected to pinball its way between Tonga, Fiji and up towards Samoa over the coming days.

Ordinarily, such a forecast track would be very detrimental to our surf prospects, however in this case TC Winston is moving a little more slowly than most South Pacific Tropical cyclones do, following a poleward trajectory. Additionally, there has been a decent easterly feeder-fetch east of TC Winston for the last few days, helping to develop the sea state before the strongest fetch has arrived.

So, the long and short of it is that we can expect TC Winston to provide some form of useful surf from Tuesday through until next Monday or Tuesday at least. As TC Winston travels further away from the mainland, the swell it generates will become smaller and less consistent at the coast, but some of the long range models are suggesting a southerly then westerly recurve later this week (out near Samoa), along with a further intensification that could actually bring about some signifiant long period energy to our shores early next week. We’ll need a few more days to firm up these thoughts now.

As for surf size, we’ll see steadily re-building E’ly swell on Tuesday - probably 2-3ft early, building to 3-5ft by late afternoon, but starting off much smaller south of Ballina to begin with (note: confidence is not high on the timing of this increase - I'll update in the notes below throughout the day as observations come to hand).

At this stage it looks like we'll see a broad plateau of wave heights through Wednesday around 3-5ft range at exposed beaches, with smaller surf running down the points. Expect a little less size through Thursday and Friday (3-4ft), and a little less consistency too.

I do need to however reiterate that this swell will be much less consistent than the usual trade swell events, because the head of the fetch was located east of New Caledonia. But due to the more distant swell source and the broad nature of the fetch, I think we’ll see a more uniform distribution of size between the Sunshine Coast and the Mid North Coast, compared to recent swells that have favoured mainly SE Qld and Far Northern NSW.

The other good news is that we have a deep Southern Ocean Low expected to push through the lower Tasman Sea on Tuesday, and it’s expected undergo several transformations through the middle of the week as it slowly migrates towards New Zealand’s South Island. This should deliver around three days of decent south swell to the East Coast, though I don’t think we’ll see much size in SE Qld due to the swell direction - it'll likely be much smaller than the pre-existing E'ly swell. 

South facing beaches in Northern NSW should pick up strong 4-5ft sets from this swell on Thursday morning, in fact some of the more reliable swell magnet should nudge 6ft at times. Surf size will probably ease slowly into throughout Friday before a second pulse pushes through for the weekend.

As for winds - it’s almost as complex as the surf outlook. A weak high will move in across the region on Tuesday, delivering light winds and sea breezes to most regions (though a lingering S/SE flow associated with ex-TC Tatiana may occupy the Sunshine Coast early morning). 

A moderate southerly change is due into the Mid North Coast on Tuesday afternoon, and will extend northwards overnight, providing moderate to fresh S/SE winds through Wednesday, however we should see periods of early SW winds in many locations. South facing beaches in Northern NSW should also see building southerly windswells through Wednesday though no great quality is expected - you'll be better off targeting the easterly swell which should be peaking by this time.

Light variable winds and sea breezes are then expected for Thursday and Friday, so the open beaches should have excellent options as we see a lovely combo of east and south swells and clean conditions across the beaches in the mornings.

This weekend (Feb 20th - 21st)

Plenty of swell for the weekend.

Inconsistent long range E’ly trade swell from TC Winston should provide most open beaches with infrequent 3ft sets on Saturday easing to 2-3ft on Sunday, though there will be considerable breaks between the bigger waves. 

A second intensification of the Southern Ocean low around Thursday - by this time, near New Zealand’s South Island - should provide a smaller but fun pulse of S/SE swell to Northern NSW’s south swell magnets on Saturday, probably around 3ft+, and likely to ease rapidly into Sunday. 

And, a developing ridge through the south-eastern Coral Sea from Friday onwards should kick up some short range SE trade swell for Sunday, nothing special but perhaps some peaky 3ft sets in the mix on the Sunshine Coast, 2-3ft on the Gold Coast and smaller as you work your way south of the border.

As for winds, early indications are that the building ridge will influence SE Qld and Far Northern NSW with moderate to fresh SE breezes on Saturday and Sunday (following a decent period of SW winds Saturday morning; more brief Sunday morning). So, apart from Saturday morning it looks like a weekend best suited to the outer points. Again! 

South of about Yamba or thereabouts, winds should trend more light and variable with afternoon sea breezes. Let’s see how Wednesday’s model guidance is shaping up.

Next week (Feb 22nd onwards)

The only swell generating potential for next week revolves around the Coral Sea ridge - which doesn’t suggest much more than a bog standard seasonal trade swell for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW - plus some long range, long period E’ly swell from TC Winston.  

But that’s heavily dependent on exactly what the cyclone does over the coming days, and is therefore a very low percentage game right now.

It's also worth noting for the weather junkies that a deep mid-latitude low well south-east of Tahiti later this week may kick up some tiny long period E/SE swell for SE Qld mid-late next week, but in the mix it's hardly worth worrying about.

Either way, we’ve got at least another week and half of great waves across the coast. So no whinging, y’hear?