Endless swells out of the east, then south
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 12th February)
Best Days: Most days should have great waves across the points. Open beaches will need to wait until the winds relax - north of Yamba this looks like being Tues/Wed though south of Coffs we should see periods of light winds most mornings. Pick of the forecast period is Sat, Mon and Wed/Thurs/Fri. But let's not be too picky.
Recap: It’s been a tricky period over the last few days, with better than expected surf in many areas (mainly Gold Coast to Ballina). Wave heights on Thursday were bigger than forecast (3-5ft in Far Northern NSW against a forecast of 3ft+) but more importantly, there was a significant increase in the strength of the trade swell from earlier in the week, which produced much better results across the points. Surf size eased a touch overnight and the wavelength has also throttled back, however we’ve still seen good point waves today under persistent southerly breezes.
This weekend (Feb 13th - 14th)
No major changes to the weekend forecast from what we’ve been expecting all week.
Essentially, a strong ridge across the Southern Queensland coastline will maintain gusty S/SE winds both days north of Yamba, with brief isolated pockets of early morning SW winds. This will obviously favour the points for the best waves. South of Coffs Harbour, winds should hold from the SW for a longer period of time before sea breezes kick in from the SE late mornings through the afternoons.
Our wave model has a slight increase into Saturday from today (i.e. 3ft Gold Coast building to 3-4ft) however I’m not especially confident we’ll see that much of an increase in surf size.
The reason for the model's increase is an increase in short range trade swell from the ridge through the Northern Tasman Sea, which is expected to strengthen as TC Tatiana moves south from the northern Coral Sea, tightening the pressure gradient across our local waters. However if you look at the period data, we’re looking at a slight decrease as swell heights increase - this validates the theory that the perceived increase may not quite eventuate, as the new swell won’t be quite as strong.
However there are a few factors that work against this notion. That is, the core fetch within the trade flow is modelled to migrate slowly westward today - towards the coast - and when acting upon an already active sea state, this can sometimes push surf size a little bigger than ordinarily expected from a stationary flow.
Based on the latest wind outlook, this fetch will be aimed into Far Northern NSW (north of Ballina) through the Gold Coast and possibly Sunshine Coast. Exposed beaches will see the most size but with a reasonable degree of east in the swell direction, outer Gold Coast points and semi-exposed Northern NSW points should see a healthy percentage of size. Wave heights will ease slowly in size with increasing southerly latitude from Ballina.
So, I think we’re looking at somewhere in the 3ft+ range across most SE Qld beaches and outer points on Saturday (a little smaller as you run down the points, obviously) with a few bigger sets in the 3-4ft+ range at the more wind affected open beaches between the Gold Coast and Ballina.
South of Ballina, surf size will slowly taper off into the 2-3ft range through to the Lower Mid North Coast. And protected points right across the region will be much smaller again, including those up on the Sunshine Coast.
Into Sunday, surf size will slowly ease back but SE Qld beaches should still manage 2-3ft sets in the morning (a little smaller into the afternoon) with 3-4ft morning sets at exposed beaches between the Gold Coast and Ballina.
Fingers crossed for more than a few locations seeing early SW winds, but don’t hold your breath. Otherwise, with gusty S/SE winds on offer both days, your best options will really be found at the points though so you’ll need to work around the tides for the best surf.
Next week (Feb 15th onwards)
Next week’s outlook just became infinitely more complex overnight with the naming of TC Tatiana in the Coral Sea.
Not only that, but TC Winston’s modelled output is also quite erratic and throwing some serious curveballs our way. Therefore, right at this point in time, confidence is only moderate from the swell potential from TC Winston, and low from TC Tatiana. So I’ll keep an eye on things over the weekend and will comment in the notes below as more information comes to hand.
Let’s look at TC Tatiana first, because it will influence our coastline before we see any energy from TC Winston.
TC Tatiana is expected to track reasonably quickly southwards over the weekend, straight through the middle of the Coral Sea. During this time, its strongest winds are expected to be aimed towards the northwest - away from our coasts - thanks to the strong coastal ridge.
It’s not until the second half of the weekend when we’re likely to see some interesting developments within our swell window. By Sunday morning, it’s expected to be east of Fraser Island, before beginning a slow southwest then westward track towards the coast. As this happens, its southern flank is expected to strengthen and broaden, which, along with a possible westward track (of some description) majorly increase its swell generating potential for us.
Now, the close proximity is a concern right now, mainly due to the large forecast error bars that are required - simply put, small changes in its positision, strength, or alignment could have a major effect on the surf we'll eventually see. So, I’ll update these thoughts over the weekend, but right now it’s looking like we’ll see a solid increase in short range E’ly swell through Monday, but with windy conditions as the coastal ridge tightens up even further as the cyclone draws closer to the mainland.
And size? Hard to be sure right now, but a relatively short fetch length (of core wind speeds) and the likelihood that any westward trajectory won’t last too long (thanks to the coastal ridge) makes me want to err on the lower size of the coin. So I'm thinking right now that exposed beaches between the Sunshine Coast and Ballina are probably looking at somewhere the 4-5ft range, with slightly smaller (i.e. 3-4ft) surf across the outer points. Winds will be gusty across this region though thanks to the presence of the cyclone.
South of Ballina, we’ll see smaller surf (3-4ft through to Coffs, 2-3ft through to Seal Rocks) with mainly lighter winds from the SW tending S/SE. However with more east in the swell direction - even E/NE at times - there should be some small runners down the regional points.
So, that’s just Monday.
Based on current model data, Tuesday morning looks like we’ll see a steady decrease in short range energy from TC Tatiana but there’ll be plenty of residual trade swell in the 3ft+ range across most regions, and similar winds as per Monday although a little lighter in strength.
Throughout Tuesday afternoon we should start to see some building E/SE swell from the southern flank of TC Winston. This won’t be cyclone swell per se, let’s called it “enhanced trade swell” - the enhancing courtesy of TC Winston on the already present trade flow that’s developing today and will generate this late Tuesday pulse over the weekend.
In fact we will see some small NE groundswell from the core of TC Winston into Wednesday however its structure looks too small in diameter, and with a general unfavourable southerly tending SE then E’ly track to favour any major swell generation.
The E/SE swell will certainly be the most dominant train mid-week but I am a little concerned that TC Winston is modelled to track away from our coastline at the same time it strengthens and broadens in size. Nevertheless, the sheer coverage of easterly gales (and the fact they’ll be working on an already active sea state) should be enough to generate some 3-5ft of peaky surf at most open beaches. This swell event will be a slow burner through Wednesday and Thursday, possibly even Friday before slowly abating into the weekend. From Thursday afternoon though, the swell will probably become more inconsistent as the swell source draws further away from the coast.
As for conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday, a weak ridge across the coast should maintain light to moderate southerlies in general, with reasonable periods of early morning SW winds, possibly W/SW in some regions. So barring some major change in model guidance, we’re looking at great surf in many locations.
And it doesn’t end there. A strong Tasman Low is expected to wind up east of Tasmania early next week, delivering a strong southerly groundswell for the NSW coast mid-week onwards. At this stage the direction looks like it’ll be too south for SE Qld (doesn’t matter anyway, as there’ll be plenty of trade swell for the beaches) however Northern NSW’s south facing beaches could see anywhere between 4ft and maybe 6ft of strong south swell from Thursday thru’ Saturday (yes, another two or three day swell event).
So in short - stacks of swells. You’ve got no excuses not to get wet at some point in the next week and a half.
Have a great weekend, see you Monday.
Comments
Phew.
I dont live anywhere near here but i just enjoy reading the depth of these notes. Excellent work.
Love your work Ben. What are your thoughts on the winds north of Fraser Is, particularly offshore exposed waters for Sun-Wed?
I hope you score Fitz;)
Cheers Welly, I hope you get your own fair share also.
Looks like the winds are going to co-operate perfectly.
Thanks for another great detailed report
Yeah Ben phews the word,you deserve a beer after all that.Well done..
Registered just to say love these forecasts.... But this one is another level. Thanks Ben for making sense of it all and explaining it in layman's terms
Ben for PM!
Thanks Ben, you do a really great forecast
Great work once again Ben. We appreciate all your effort.
Long time reader, first time poster.
Busting my posting cherry to say a massive thanks to Ben for a the hard work.
Love these forecasts mate!
Thanks for taking the time Ben. All I see is too large blobs but you make sense of them all
Thanks for the nice feedback everyone! Now, let's hope at least a few of us get barrelled over the weekend.
Bom forcasing WINSTON to reach cat 4 now. Great report Ben
4 - 5 foot safety man ;)..... I'll stick with 6 foot benny boy lol
MOst complicated and complex summer of surf ever and great calls by BM.
This one though, like Sheepy said is a bit fence sitty and too full of caveats.
kidding, kidding.
I know it's a long way off and subject to significant change but feck me ECs long range forecast for Winston Does NOT paint a very good picture for New Cal and QLD!!
Overnight, there's been a slight upgrade in the forecast strength and position of TC Tatiana, so Monday could be a little bigger now across SE Qld (decreasing wave heights south of Byron or Ballina though). At this stage 4-6ft seems to be a good ballpark figure but let's continue to assess the model output over the next 48 hours.
No changes otherwise to the forecast notes issued yesterday.
Tatiana is getting her skirt ripped off by vertical wind shear.
I doubt the winds are going to play friendly for out there Neil..On the brightside town should be fairly frothing for a few nice ones on the point though ..
Twin systems now showing on the latest ASCAT looking really promising..... Wish I was south of the GBR!
Jeez...
I'll stick with my "step ladder" sets call for tomorrow... Possibly a bit earlier than "evening"... Still reckon it'll get to 6 foot..
Ummmm I think it's even earlier. Check Caloundra and Mooloolaba wave buoys!!!! Geezus hmax is outta the roof!!
This is deffo a QLD swell event. Nowhere near that big or good here.
Tatiana is really struggling, be lucky to make tomorrow as a TC.
Short range 3-4ft sets on the Tweed today, fun but a little frustrating at times with the high tide. Would have been a lot better on low.
SD - 6ft sets from the cyclone tomorrow arvo?
No.. I stick by my call in the last notes.... Monday onwards.. But It'll start picking up tomorrow in the afternoon/evening... Not so much from the cyclone at that stage, but more from the associated fetch..
What?
With this right on the doorstep, let alone ladder.
Cause will pick up!
Already 4ft plus, it's only gonna get bigger.
Yeah... That map is now, derrfred... I was referring to what was said days ago... ;)
C'mon FR,
Your goldilocks routine is wearing thin. If you really wanted to throw people off the scent, you should have just mentioned the GWS sighting at Lennox today that cleared the water...
Last time you called a 'QLD swell event' it was pumping in your neck of the woods and you were grinning like the cat that got the cream
This one?
Public Shark Report: NSW - LENNOX HEAD POINT. 07:00, 13/02/16, 3m, White, Sighting from water, Garry Meredith FNC NSW Surf Life Saving Duty Office to Shark Reports - "A shark sighting this morning at 7am at Lennox Point. It was identified by numerous surfers as a 3m great white. A surfing event that was being held at the time has been cancelled. A Shark aerial patrol will be conducted at approx 8.30".
Chopper was circling this morning as well. Much safer in QLD with the nets and drumlines.
Ohh here we go again lol..... Yes, satire, I know.... But did you watch 4 corners, fr?
Yep my mate who lives at your local Steve said it was a messy wind affected 4-5ft by close of play this arvo.
Yep, and tons of fun.
So easy to get waves when it's like that.
sure was messy and wind affected.
Interesting.
.
Latest model guidaance doesn't look as great. I'll revise yesterday morning's upgrade back down again to what I issued Friday afternoon.
Yesterday afternoon's increase across the SE Qld buoys (mainly Sunny Coast) was short range windswell, related to the northern Tasman ridge (see fetch in this ASCAT). Nothing to do with the cyclone. It's already on the way back down.
sanity prevails.
Batfink, following on from our convo in previous forecast notes, here a good ASCAT pass of TC Winston that shows the strongest winds on its eastern flank.
About 3ft/3ft + this morning with the odd set close to 4ft every so often. Not a lot of push in the swell yet.
Although I did see something easily over 8ft about 50-60m away from me but I wasn't going to surf that one!!!
Sunny, Gold or Tweed Coast, Don?
Your local point Ben!!!
And I can tell you. She wasn't just cruising around. She was in a frenzy!!
Cleanish but weak(er) 3ft or so down here. Short range trade swell out of the E. No strength to it.
Edit: bye bye Tatiana.
Gutless but fun.
Beautiful conditions, piss warm water , very low crowds.
The odd little barrel off the peak.
Fun, fun, fun.
I think someone snuck some lsd into my lunch.... Was just watching the surf cam at noosa.... A perfect little set peeled down nationals.... No one on it..... No one..... Doesn't even look like anyone is in the water.....
Anyhow there's a purple dragon at the door selling balloons filled with jesus farts, and the trees are dancing with the bird monkeys.... See ya.. bahahahaha
Spoke to soon.... 2 people just paddled out..
Ben, in regards to the sunny/Fraser coast, one part of the low I do like the look of over the past couple of day is this;
How's it looking in QLD ?-any sign of step-laddering sets? Very benign 2-3 ft down here.
Could be just about to turn FR.... Very slight increase.... Period steadying at 9ish.... Direction starting to swing.. Should've stuck with "evening", and not adjusted to "arvo/evening" lol
https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/coasts-waterways/beach/waves-sites/mo...
Your seeing things SD. No new swell on that trace.
Have a look at the snapper cam, Ben.. Looks like 2 swell in the water to me..
I can't see two distinct swells. As it is, the trade swell is from a pretty broad direction so you'll get a mix out of the eastern quadrant anyway.
Bundy buoy jumping in period. I think it's coming very shortly.
FR, Don.... "stepladders" lol..... I was a bit surprised, no heaps surprised about the size yesterday and today.... Honestly thought it was gonna be as forecast , 2 foot..... So, thanks to bigger waves than thought late yesterday and today, the increase this evening isn't quite as noticeable... I got screwed by a bigger than expected wind/tradeswell.. I'll wear that.... Don't complain fr.. lol
Hang on, you couldn't see the step-ladder sets because the surf was already too big?
Mate, thats' right up there with the dog ate my homework.
You're not the first to shoot their load too quickly when a cyclone is in the Coral Sea SD.
Not complaining, just having a quiet chuckle.
Only those brave enough to have a go should chuckle, mate..... You sat on the fence the whole time, bro... ;) Nah but seriously, I did think it was gonna be a lot smaller today.... Was very surprised.... Since a slow drop till lunchtime on the sunny coast, it has steadied, increased slightly if anything, and certainly straightened up to a more easterly swell... Even staring to see the odd 10 second fluctuation at both Bundy and Mbah..
hang on you're confusing the hell out of me Sheepdog.
First it was going to be stepladder sets this afternoon, then we couldn't see the step-ladder sets because the surf was already too big and now you thought it was going to be smaller?
Can you translate into plain english pls?
Not that hard bro.... Thought it was gonna be 2 foot this morning.... I was wrong........ I thought it was gonna go from 2 foot this morning/lunch to 4 foot this evening.... Btw , check mlbah now..
Just got in from the Tweed, fun 2-3ft sets - very similar to yesterday though a foot or so smaller. Def no new swell though.
Hey Ben, first time commenter long time reader hah, just wondering how tomorrow is shaping up for the Gold Coast??
Haven't looked at the data in specific since this morning (see my comments above from 5:30am).. will give it a whirl shortly.
I can't see it SD.
ok cheers Ben
6ft, no chance.
No chance?wasn't there some 40, 50 knot winds pakin in around Tatiana . pretty close to the coast too.to small fetch and passed through to quick? Looking at Ascat would have thought a chance of 6 ft set on open coast.then again I don't crunch the numbers. ...
How big you thinking Craig
I'm gonna downgrade my forecast a little from Friday - the latest Rapidscat had a good pass over the former Coral Sea cyclone and it's weakened a lot since Saturday, and is now not very well aligned in our swell window.
Exposed beaches in SE Qld - predominantly the Sunny Coast - should build to 3-5ft throughout Monday. A little smaller on the Gold Coast (say, building to 3-4ft). Wave heights will be smaller running down the points. And a lot smaller as you progress south of Byron.
3 to 5 foot?..... That's a big difference..... 3foot....... 5 foot..... Basically you're saying it could be "this big", or nearly twice "this big".....
Yeah, Craig...... How big? There's almost 2m of swell in the water now as we speak... And if it's picking up throughout the night and into monday, how big do you reckon?
https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/coasts-waterways/beach/waves-sites/mo...
SD, surf forecast adjustments are achieved in small increments. 3-5ft is a slight decrease from 4-5ft (the original forecast). The next step down is 4ft, then 3-4ft (which I think the Gold Coast will be), then 3ft, then 2-3ft, then 2ft, etc. If you have any suggestions for how this could be better achieved, then please let me know - my system has worked for me for a long time.
I'm with SD on this one. I've never understood nor agreed with a 3-5ft or 4-6ft forecast. They are too massive a range for me. If it's 3ft with the odd 5ft set then I can understand that and it should be written this way. But just saying 3-5ft is too broad IMO.
To expand into this in a little more detail, our size scale has increments of 0.5ft until 1.5ft (i.e. 1-1.5ft), then increments of 1ft until 4ft, (ie 3-4ft), then increments of 2ft from 4ft to 12ft (i.e. 3-5ft, 4-6ft, 6-8ft, 10-12ft).
After that, we have increments of 3ft until 18ft (ie 15-18ft), then above that it's in increments of 5ft (see full list below from our surf report backend).
There's a lot of research, debate and surf reporter feedback that contributed to these figures but we feel this is the best mix of wave heights that allows for small changes in size that wouldn't otherwise cross particular size thresholds.
Otherwise, the other option is to keep on adding "+" (i.e. 3ft+) but I try to avoid this as much as I can.
It's also worth pointing out that for what I've seen over the years, Swellnet has the tightest size criteria of all of the other forecasting sites. I've frequently seen 2-4ft and 3-6ft on another Australian site (that is too much IMO), and one of the overseas sites has massive error margins (ie "head high to double overhead, occasionally triple overhead+ on the sets"), which is ridiculous.
Haha cheers for explaining I always read 3-5ft as a call of the inconsistency, ie "3ft with inconsistent 5ft bomb sets'. Makes sense now when you put it in the above perspective and in the end it reduces my expectations which is good for an overly optimistic chap.
Also worth pointing out that a few days ago, the BOM issued a Dangerous Surf Warning for SE Qld today, but they retracted it at 4pm this afternoon (they still had it in place for much of today).
The BOM also majorly dropped their swell forecast for Monday across SE Qld too (from 2-3m to 1-2m).
Swell heights across the buoys look about the same across the Sunny Coast this morning, but with a slight uptick in peak swell periods to 10 seconds (and a swing in the swell direction to the E/NE). Should be a noticeable difference in the surf this morning from the weekend's trade swell. Winds are only light across both coasts right now so there should be very good waves on offer.
And... BOM have also pulled the Dangerous Surf Warning for SE Qld beaches today.
Hmmmm.
Couldn't put a size on it sorry as haven't been watching it as close as I'd like to, but from what I did see, and what ASCAT revealed as well as the images above was to me that we weren't going to see consistent surf in the 6ft range.
Craig........ That is the north facing nationals, right? The most tapered and protected point on the east coast, yeah? Have you looked at moffats? That spot I sent you the pic of a while back is breaking too... You know where I mean.... A bit wind affected but not bad.... And it only breaks when it's 5 foot or more....
Yeah lots of swell into Moffs, looks 4ft or so.
My point was more this swell won't be up in that consistent 5-6ft range, but below that.
Sure could be a 6ft bomb in the mix, but generally more 3-5ft or so.
Wow, how perfectly lined up is Snapper right now!
That bank has been in top nick for ages now.
Must be holding out for a storm to blow through it just before the wsl come to town.
Yep, we've got three weeks for things to go to shit.
very scratchy, patchy 3ft here with the very odd 4footer.
Super fun surf on the Tweed this morning with the new swell kicking in overnight, but I buggered it up by taking out the wrong board (yes, I am blaming my equipment!). Strong 3-4ft sets but much longer waits for 'em than over the weekend; direction was E/NE for the bigger stuff with some small weak leftover E/SE trade swell around 2ft in the mix too.
Looking nice in Yamba going by the reports Steve.
Yes, perfect swell direction for there and that morning land breeze probably had more legs down there.
S'ly was tearing the beachies to bits just as the tide started pushing in .
You guys have had too much good surf.
Its a very scratchy, patchy 1ft here with the very odd 1.5 footer in Manly.
Been same since Friday, but still enough to non-fatally drown a Chinese lady on Saturday night at North Steyne. She was dragged in all blue but succesfully resuscitated.
Heaps bigger in "my" old stomping ground... "PP" is breaking....
Also check Moffs cam....
"Kirra swell.... Solid pulse.. Active sea state... Swell from distant low into closer low.... Expect some freaks... Double ups.. Actual power... That sort of "whip cracking" grunt peculiar to NNSW/QLD when it does crank..."
6foot step-ladder sets?
Mate, you went way too far out on that limb there.
You're great with the cryptic "watch out for a low in the Gulf between Dec and march" calls.
When it comes to actual calling swells you've way over-cooked this one.
Fitz what happened up your way ?
Not too bad udo, wind a bit stronger than expected. 15's yesterday and down around 10 this morning, off to slightly cross shore but clean on the low tide. I'm expecting the wind to start to die out but unfortunately so will the swell.
Clean lines around 4'-5' yesterday afternoon and this morning, slightly bigger on the exposed East sides of the reef.
Certainly no complaints here:)
"swell from distant swell into closer low".... That's the second swell, fr.... Hasn't even arrived yet..... There's an active seas state the will remain, yeah? There are 2 swells on the card, yeah?
Did I say "6 foot step ladder sets"?
What's your thoughts on Noosa, SD?
Noosa is a hoax.... Always has been..... But a camera at granites (am i allowed to say that without anyone losing their shit) would be handy...... I've seen first point look like a bath, and the big G peeling off at 3 foot many times...
Doggy, instead of ducking and weaving mate, when you make a big overcall you
're better off trying to figure how and why you got it wrong so you don't make the same mistake next time.
FR - I know you're a bit slow..... That's ok..... Age is a horrible thing.... But here... Here's a pretty picture.... This is where I went wrong on sunday.... Now, I know you want to argue about me being wrong.... ("Sheepdog said he was wrong - he's wrong about being wrong... He can't even be wrong right bahahahaha)
But this is where the sunday trade swell stuffed me..... I've marked the area in red... In black pen, I have drawn what I though the local junkier swell would do.... And at around 6pm ish, the new tats swell started to come in.... If the trade swell had've been smaller, which i thought would've been the case, the pick up in swell late in afternoon would been a heck of a lot more noticeable
Mate, that's pure waffle.
You overcalled the shit out of it, went in way too hard.
Have you figured out why?
You're just shitty the sunny coast is bigger than Ballina hehehehehe
Also not the sunny coast reporter (he's actually on the beach at the sunny coast - I mean, you couldn't doubt someone who's actually on the beach - i'm down in S.A and would have a fuckn clue ;) ) has just upgraded it to 4 to 5 foot from 3 to 5 foot..... Also note the M/bah graph coming in for a good pulse at 2.125 metres, which is 7 foot in the old scale....
So thats a no.
You haven't figured it out.
Mate, if you can't take an honest look and hindcast your mistakes you'll keep making them and lose credibility as any kind of forecaster.
SD, the surf didn't pick up at all yesterday. It dropped in size from the morning (as per my expectations).
Well that's not what the sunny coast graph says Ben..... It was dropping out to around 1.75m yesterday lunch through 6pm.... Then through the evening it pushed up to 2 metres... Just sayin lol
Even the more protected/sheltered Caloundra readings show a definite increase..
Surf forecasts generally imply trends that will occur during daylight hours. Your comments were suggesting a prominent increase throughout Sunday afternoon, which didn't occur.
As for the buoy data, the difference between the weekend and today is not that impressive. Surfers in SA/Vic/Tas/WA wouldn't bat an eyelid at those figures or trends. You make mention that the buoy pushed just over a metre last night - that's still less than what it reached on Saturday.
As for the surf, today is about the same size as Saturday on the Tweed, though today has a little more power and the sets are definitely lined up a lot better. Yesterday was smaller.
Not blowing smoke up anyones arse, if I think it's being over or under cooked then I'll say so but I have noticed an increase in accuracy since Ben moved back to the region.
There's no substitute for being able to fine tune and calibrate the various swell and wind contingencies with careful and regular observation. it makes a subtle but big difference over time.
At least your not a fence seater SD and willing to push the envelope.
Chase, don't worry about FR..... The fence splinters have infected... And he's shitty that for once on a blue moon the sunny coast is bigger than Ballina..... bahahahaha
Northern beaches Sunny Coast 6am this morning. Endless Summer
The further south you go, the later the arrival of course.... Interesting to note the most exposed wave buoy in Qld, North Straddie, is now nudging towards 3 metres...
http://www.qld.gov.au/environment/coasts-waterways/beach/waves-sites/bri...
Wow!! **** ***** would've been cranking!! So would've *** ***.....
Back in your dog box SD!!! ;)
Woof!!! Woof woof!!!!!!! :p
BTW Don.... The "size increments" thingy you, Ben and I touched on would make for an interesting thread..... "3 to 5 foot" has always pissed me off... But that's just me...... At times I have been guilty of using it, but I try not to....... But there's a bloody big difference between 3 and 5 foot....... If we multiply both amounts (3 and 5) by , say, 4 , we'd have 12 to 20 foot..... Even just multiplying them by 2 gives 6 to 10 foot.....
Id' say the only time one could use a 50% increment is 1 to 2 foot...... Then for me it's 2 to 3 foot.... 3 foot... 3 to 4 foot.... 4 foot.... Once you get to 4 foot, you MIGHT be able to call 4 to 6 foot, but 4 to 5 foot "with the odd bigger one" would probably be better.....
The 2 foot increment in general really should kick in at 6 foot...... 2 foot is 33.33% of 6 foot..... So 6 to 8 foot is a fair call.. If one is going up in 40 or 50% increments, where does it end...
I'd say the 2 foot increment is good between 6 and 12 feet...... From 12 foot, you probably once again wouldn't wanna go over 33.333%.... It seems to be an unwritten rule that "25%" kicks in (25% of 12 being 3)... So ya got 12 to 15 foot.... 15 to 18 foot.... Again when it hits 20 foot, 25% increments - 20 to 25 foot, 25 to 30 foot.....
But as I said, it would be a great forum topic... perhaps there is one in the archive??
But there's plenty of days where the surf's generally in the 3-4ft range, with 5ft sets. so 3-5ft covers this. Same with 4-5ft, and 6ft bombs (4-6ft).
There is no 6-10ft etc, that's silly, it's 6-8, 8-10, 10-12ft etc.
PS nice kick on MB buoy :o
Wave heights at the Mooloolaba buoy? It's still smaller than Saturday.
But with way stronger periods.
Tp has increased from 9 seconds to 10.5 seconds.
Tz has increased from 6 seconds to about 7 seconds.
In the southern states, this wouldn't even warrant a secondary confirmation on the surfcams.
Point being: with 40kt+ around the core of the cyclone, we should be expecting much stronger periods than what's usually attributable to bog standard trade swells. None of the SE Qld buoys have picked up anything interesting (IMO) yet in the swell period department.
Well it isn't the southern states.... It's the bloody sunny coast mate..... lol And when i write here, as all the swellnet old timers know, I'm sunny coast centric.. It went from 1.5m at 5 - 5.30 pm to nudging 2m at 11pm.... Or in the old scale 4.9 feet to 6.45 feet....
As far as the "sunday arvo" call goes, I was just like you and adjusted slightly as it went..... I did stick with my size call, but my last mention on timing was that i "should've stuck with my original evening call".... My first call was "sunday evening/night, which can be easily found.. And as far as forecasts being in "daylight hours", 2 points - you have mentioned in many reports "evening", or "overnight" increase..... And point 2 - seeings everyone is being so pedantic today lol - Here again are the Mbah graphs.... We can see the downward size trend ceased at 5.00 to 5.30pm sunday, and at the same time the swell swinging to a more easterly direction... It's fact.... Another fact - last daylight at Noosa is 7pm.... That's a 1 1/2 to 2 hour surf sesh, in daylight........
Jeez mate, this is tiring.
I didn't change my forecast for Sunday at all. Always had an easing trend all day.
And there wasn't a swell kick late Sunday afternoon/early evening either. Judging by the swell period data, and the source of the swell, there was no defined swell front associated with this event - things seemed to slowly kick into gear between 8pm and midnight, reached a peak in the early hours of the morning near dawn, and are now slowly starting to trend down.
This all fits in with the expectations of these kinds of swell events from broad, diverse weather systems containing multiple fetches. It's much different to a single source swell.
Don't look too specifically at the buoy data either, there's never a 100% correlation with the surf, and it'll do your head in if you look at individual data points. Just use it as a guide against model data.
As an example, the Gold Coast and Mooloolaba buoys are recording very similar swell heights/periods. But the Gold Coast is only 3-4ft - and pretty inconsistent at that - so why are you calling the Sunny Coast 5ft+?
SD, unfortunately "4 to 5 foot with the odd bigger one" doesn't fit neatly into a narrow drop down menu. Databases also dislike the change in structure.
So basically, you've agreed with everything we have in place, except for 3-5ft.
I'm fine with that.
I'm expecting to see a further pulse of E/NE swell this evening, evidenced by another jump in swell period up to the 12-14 sec range.
Hmax just taking a decent rise on the SE Qld buoys too. Looking at those obs I reckon a few 5-6ft sneaker sets isn't out of the question this arvo at the east facing beaches.
Go Sheepdog haha!!
6ft , pumping Kirra, couldn't see the step-ladder sets because the surf was too big,
Hilarious.
You could paddle your grandma out on a foamy without getting her blue rinse wet at Noosa or the Pass. Yet the swell is from the ENE.
3-4ft with some bigger ones on the open beaches.
Top end of Snapper is topping out the size.
God knows what Doggy is going to come up with when Kirra really does get a 6ft cyclone swell. It's going to be armageddon.
Oh dear..... I know you get a buzz when i troll back...... Is that what you want me to do? I have got a spare 1/2 hour... Do you want me to prove the kirra swell talk between you and me was in relation to Winston and not tats? Do you want me to show everyone how dishonest you can be FR? Ok then (yawn)
Thursday, 11/2, 7.48pm Free ride wrote "Maybe Winston might linger longer.".......... I replied directly to fr, in regards to winston - "Kirra swell.... Solid pulse.. Active sea state... Swell from distant low into closer low.... Expect some freaks... Double ups.. Actual power... That sort of "whip cracking" grunt peculiar to NNSW/QLD when it does crank..."
So you are being dishonest... We were talking about the upcoming winston re' kirra, not "tats"..... Not cool FR.... Not even for you....
The following day, our attention and rightly so turned to the closer Tats.... Friday 12/2, 6.08pm re' tats I wrote "If tats keeps going as planned, my best guess would be double ups late sunday evening... 6 foot with bigger bombs monday morning via Tat's.... 12, maybe 13 seconds....."
Here's the convo for people with no life... Join Fr and me lol
http://www.swellnet.com/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-n...
Now the buoy data says it rocked up on sunday evening... Thanks to a more persistent trade well, it was somewhat masked... I've probably got the monday call a foot over... I said 6 foot with bigger bombs.... it's probably 5 foot with bigger bombs, especially in my neck of the qld/nsw area I always look at.... Fuck knows whats happening in Coffs Harbour.... ................... Probably a second out on period..... But hey not too bad for a Friday evening call.....
How did your call go, FR?
Ben Matson called this one perfectly.
"Exposed beaches in SE Qld - predominantly the Sunny Coast - should build to 3-5ft throughout Monday. A little smaller on the Gold Coast (say, building to 3-4ft). Wave heights will be smaller running down the points. And a lot smaller as you progress south of Byron."
Oh for gods sake Doggy, don't make a fool out of yourself by getting all aggro and making personal threats over a surf forecasting thread.
I'm taking the word of a pro surf forecaster who lives on the beach, as well as my own eyes and experience, as well as the footage off cams.
Your a bloke who lives in South Ozzie who got a bit excited when he saw a cyclone in the Coral Sea and over-called it. it's no biggy. We have a laugh, learn from it and move on.
As a casual observer of this running forecast section, I've gotta say, you do seem to be acting like a dog with a bone on this one FR. Someone made an interesting call earlier about your "Goldilocks" antics. Be careful what you wish for mate. It's only surf forecasting after all.
Carry on.........
Not exactly sure what I'm "wishing for" Rabs, other than truth in advertising. There were a few outlandish calls made, Ben was a voice of reason and I'm backing that up with actual observations.
but point taken, backing out of the room.
Well, like you said, "it's no biggy". You just sounded a bit fired up that's all......
Been watching Snapper steadily for the last 20-30 mins.
This is the biggest set I have seen (if anyone else has seen a bigger wave, please take a screenshot and post it here). Looks 3ft, maybe 3-4ft to me.
And I think it's fair to say that under an E/NE swell, the first section at Snapper is going to pick up the lion's share of the regional swell size.
Had a surf at BH not along ago, few goodies, hard to pick but reeling down the bank some of them.
Solid 3-4ft.......?
Same a bit further south Welly, a good 3-4 ft with some push. Wind was into it but no crowd (as in zero) and lots of fun. Went funky right on the high tide but generally good value.
Not sure if it is the same place I was at AndyM, sounds like it, but I paddled out at about 9ish and I reckon some of those sets were 4ft+. Don't want to split hairs, but I thought it was quite solid and yeah, fair bit of push. Got tired from the sweep but didn't want to waste this swell so went to cooly/kirra and reckon it was way smaller. Spoke to some guys who also looked at the other place and they thought the same. Hope you got some good ones!
Ha, you've made me think that Welly was talking about a different BH! I'm talking about south of Cape Byron -
Yeah there were some nice overhead sets down here so I guess 4ft+. After the Freeride and Sheepdog chat I'm way too scared to be definitive about size! As I mentioned, the wind was into it but with between 0 and 2 other people in the water in 3 1/2 hours, I'm pretty happy.
Hope you got some turns in too mate.
Ha, no worries
I thought about that spot but thought the crowd would be out of control.
2 guys? Was that off the Point?
We're talking about the next place south from the point yeah?
Yeah not that BH, Andy, haha;)
Ok reading the posts above maybe it was 3.89777777777777. .69 ft on the fuck, I forgot what I was gonna say now..............69?
Can't remember.
Let's see what huey delivers early morning.
Good luck gents...Best wishes.
Biggest set I have seen at Moffats in the last 20 mins too. Looks 4ft-ish, maybe a little bigger. Nowhere near 6ft though.
I'd like to thank everyone for their contributions in this thread - it's been a cracker. 133 comments and counting!
Looking forward to what this afternoon's updated forecaster notes brings...
If you could excusemy ignorance, but what are step ladder sets?
The general idea is that wave heights build like a step ladder.. i.e. 2ft at 12pm, 3ft at 1pm, 4ft at 2pm, 5ft at 3pm, 6ft at 4pm etc.
On big Hawaiian swells it's sometimes a much steeper ladder. Occasionally near vertical.... *gulp*