South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 3rd February)

Best Days: Fri: building S'ly swells all day, maybe some mid-late a'noon waves across the southern Goldy points. Sat/Sun/Mon/Tues: great surf from the S/SE (Sat) tending SE (Sun onwards) with winds out of the SW thru' SE, depending on location. Ideal for the points etc. Wed/Thurs: much smaller surf but still fun across most open beaches and outer points. 

Recap: Tiny NE swells with variable winds for the last few days. Nothing of any great interest. 

This week (Feb 4th - 5th)

No real change to the forecast issued Monday, except for one slight adjustment to the timing - everything’s been shunted back a half day or so.

We currently have a strong front in the Southern Ocean approaching the lower Tasman Sea, and it’s going to merge with a broad trough to the north, forming a large low pressure system in the central Tasman Sea.

No, this is not an East Coast Low - it’s a Tasman Low (technically, a Central Tasman Low). There is a big difference between the two, as per Craig’s article When is an east coast low not an East Coast Low?

Anyway, southerly winds will gradually freshen across the region throughout Thursday, in fact we may see two concurrent boundaries of southerly winds. The first will push along the Northern NSW coast, reaching Port Macquarie around dawn and then Ballina by the afternoon (winds will probably be from the southern quadrant all day in all regions, but lighter and more SW ahead of the change).

A second, smaller trough is modelled the develop off the Central Qld coast on Thursday morning - probably north of Fraser Island - and a ridge behind it will strengthen S/SE winds about the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast (strongest in the north through the afternoon).

But unfortunately, there’s unlikely to be any swell on offer in the morning which is the only real time when we may see a window of favourable winds - probably between about Coffs Harbour and the Tweed Coast.

A minor spread of E’ly swell originating from a NE fetch in the north-eastern Tasman Sea later yesterday and today - aimed mainly towards southern NSW - will probably reach our shores mid-late afternoon, but there are several factors working against any decent surf: (1) by this time, gusty southerly winds will be established across the coast, (2) surf size will be mainly small, due to the modest fetch size and large travel distance, and (3) the late arrival means it’ll probably peak overnight. So don’t get too excited about any surf on Thursday as we’ll be starting from a tiny base.

Friday is a different proposition, although it’s expected to be quite windy at most locations.

In actual fact, we’re looking at much better waves over the weekend so don’t raise your expectations too high about Friday’s prospects, but for what its worth south facing beaches in Northern NSW should see a steady upwards trend towards the 5-6ft mark by close of business. It’ll be smaller in the morning, and locations with increasing southerly latitude (i.e. further south) will see wave heights build earlier than those in the north.

But with 25kt S’ly tending S/SE winds it will be an ugly mess at the open beaches, and the short period plus the acute southerly swell direction will result in very small waves inside protected southern corners. 

As for SE Qld, winds will be ideal for the outer points on Friday but surf size will be very small here early morning, due to the southerly direction and initially low period. As the wavelength slowly draws out by the afternoon, we should see some bigger waves north of the border but I’m a little skeptical that we’ll see anything overly worthwhile until the weekend. 

Still, occasional 2-3ft sets are possible at the outer points around mid-afternoon onwards; it’ll be bigger at south swell magnets but much more wind affected. Open beaches should see some size through the mid-late afternoon but they’ll be affected by gusty southerlies - unfortunately the outer points really will be your best bet.

Keep in mind that sheltered points (i.e. Noosa) will be tiny through this period - don’t expect any rideable surf here on Friday. 

This weekend (Feb 6th - 7th)

Lots of wind this week but lots of surf too. The low looks very nice in the latest model runs though the low is expected to reach peak in intensity a little further NE than optimal (relative to its alignment to our coasts) so I’ll be keeping a close eye on this in Friday’s update.

At this stage I think we’ll see a slow upwards trend all day Saturday, with a broad peak either later that afternoon or perhaps early Sunday morning. Exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW should pick up the most size with occasional 6ft to almost 8ft sets, and Sunday morning looks like it’ll be the best time for the semi-exposed points with the maximum degree of south-east in the swell direction (Saturday may still be more S/SE, which will shave off size at protected spots). Size should be around 6ft+ at the peak of the swell at these semi-exposed points, whilst protected spots will be a couple of feet smaller at least. 

Sunday will also see much less wind; still from the same direction (early SW tending S’ly then SE) but maybe just 10-15kts south of Coffs and 15-20kts north of Coffs. So on the balance you’ll definitely need to aim for some protection from the wind but early Sunday morning should offer a reasonably prolonged window of light SW winds across many regions.

In SE Qld, we’re looking at smaller surf owing to the swell direction. I think we’ll see the same trend here as per Northern NSW - slowly up all day Saturday towards a broad peak later that evening or early Sunday morning - and the outer points should pull in set waves anywhere between 3ft and maybe 5ft.

What’s tipping this in favour of a decent sized swell event is the prolonged nature of this low - the fetch is expected to undergo several phases of intensification from Friday onwards, all on top of a broad supporting ridge below the core fetch. But we’ll refine the specifics in more detail on Friday. 

Exposed south swell magnets should see more size than this (but unworkable conditions due to the winds) and inner, protected points will be two to three feet smaller thanks to the swell direction. Either way, Sunday looks pretty good at this stage.

As for winds, we’ll see fresh S/SE winds on Saturday easing a little on Sunday, with morning SW’ers possible on Saturday morning - probably just across the southern Gold Coast - becoming more prevalent across more regions (i.e. southern Sunshine Coast too) on Sunday morning. So yeah, early Sunday morning is the pick.

Next week (Feb 8th onwards)

Unfortunately, whilst the latter stages of this easing low are still expected to play out as expected in Monday’s notes, the latest model gudiance has shunted this inside (i.e. east of) the swell shadow of New Zealand’s North Island. Bummer.

This means that apart from Monday and Tuesday - which should see plenty of strong, but easing swell across the region - we’ll see a more pronounced abating trend from late Tuesday and Wednesday, into Thursday. A modest lingering fetch early-mid week will stop the swell from drying up completely, but at this stage you’ll want to make the most of Monday and Tuesday.

Either way, a stationary ridge through the southern Coral Sea will maintain S/SE winds throughout this time frame (plus early SW winds in some locations) so it looks like another extended run of quality waves for the semi-exposed (Northern NSW) and outer (SE Qld) points. 

More on this in Friday’s update.