South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 22nd January)

Best Days: Sat: building E'ly swell with winds tending NW (late a'noon S'ly change on Mid North Coast). May see late variable trend in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld. Sun/Mon: strong combo of inconsistent E'ly swell and building short range S/SE swell, with S'ly tending SE winds - best on the outer points. Tues: Easing E'ly and S/SE tending SE swells with abating winds, mainly SW tending SE. Wed: chance for another large E'ly groundswell with light winds. Thurs: easing E'ly swells with winds tending N'ly. 

Recap: A small E’ly groundswell has begun to make its presence felt across all coasts since Thursday morning, but we’re yet to see any notable size (biggest reported waves have been around 2ft+). Northerly winds have generally hampered surfing opportunities at open beaches though there have been periods of NW winds in some areas. 

This weekend (Jan 23rd - 24th)

Probably the most difficult thing about long range east swells is that we have no way of monitoring their status. 

Unlike southerly swells, which move up the NSW coast and can be tracked via wave buoys, surfcams and human observations, we have no knowledge about easterly swells until they actually arrive. The eastern-most wave buoy (MHL’s Byron buoy - ironically, positioned off Ballina - is a whisker further east than DSITI’s Brisbane buoy, which is east of the north-eastern top of Stradbroke Island) is only 7.5km off the coast. So for a swell exhibiting a period of about 15 seconds, it takes around ten minutes to pass through the buoy and then reach the mainland. 

Therefore, with most wave buoys updating their data feeds to the internet every couple of hours, we’re much more likely to see new energy on the surfcams before the buoy web pages show a kick in size or period on their graphs.

What this all means is that I’m no wiser as to how the weekend’s easterly swell will play out. Without a wave buoy well off the coast to confirm the size, period, timing and direction of the incoming energy, I can only go off the model guidance and assess this against the verified surface wind fields (from satellite observations) so see whether the responsible fetch was on track. We did this last Wednesday, and it all looked pretty good. 

At the moment the wave model guidance is a little high compared to buoy observations, but these kinds of events are typically slow to build, and even slower to ease, so I'm not that fussed.

What compounds the problem is the sheer inconsistency of the swell, which is a byproduct of the enormous travel distance. You really won’t find a much more inconsistent swell event than the episode unfolding across our coast right now - swells that develop further east than where STC Victor did most of its work are very rare, and the responsible weather systems usually lack all of the other favourable attributes that we’ve seen over the last week (storm track, forward speed, supporting high pressure ridge, broad core fetch, duration). 

So let’s get to the nitty gritty.

We can safely apply the same easterly swell forecast to all coasts for the next few days, because of its source location. And the outlook is for an extremely inconsistent event all weekend, building slowly through Saturday and further into Sunday, with a peak expected on Monday.

In fact, we’re looking at multiple overlapping swell trains over the next few days. This is most easily observed via the swell periods, which jump up several times between Saturday and (see right). So, expect very lully conditions for the most part - maybe twenty minutes between the bigger waves - but occasionally, it could become active for short bursts as several swell trains all arrive concurrently.

Size wise? Somewhere between 3-4ft at exposed beaches on Saturday, then 3-5ft on Sunday, with smaller surf running down the length of the various points.

Due to the considerably core fetch within the system a few days ago, I think some of the region’s more reliable swell magnets - mainly Northern NSW - could see bigger rogue sets in the 6ft+ range but this will certainly be the exception rather than the rule.

And let me emphasise just one more time time about how inconsistent it’s going to be. 

I-n-c-o-n-s-i-s-t-e-n-t.

What will dictate your surfing choice this weekend will be the local winds. Now that we’re a little closer to D-Day, we can fine tune the timing of this trough that’s going to disrupt the northerly regime. 

Saturday will be characterised by freshening N’ly tending NW winds, with a gusty S'ly change approaching from the south throughout the afternoon. Overnight N’lies tonight may in fact generate a secondary NE windswell for exposed north-facing beaches in Northern NSW. 

The S’ly change has been stalled a little in the latest model runs, and is now not due into the Mid North Coast until mid-late afternoon, reaching the border a few hours before dawn on Sunday. 

Saturday afternoon may see a period of lighter, more variable winds in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld as the trough approaches but for the most part Saturday will be beach breaks only, preferably those offering some protection from the north. 

The S’ly change is still hard to pick as to how far north it’ll penetrate. The latest guidance suggests it may only just nose into the southern Sunshine Coast during Sunday morning, so we’re 50/50 as to whether that region will feel the effects of the change. In any case the northerly should cease by this time, which is a good thing.

The strength and orientation of the trailing fetch has also moved around since Wednesday's notes; now lighter in strength and more SE through Sunday afternoon. As such I’m not expecting as much windswell in the water from this source (that’s a good thing for most spots too). 

Nevertheless, Sunday should offer good waves at Northern NSW’s semi-exposed points, and across the SE Qld outer points - though once again just remember that there’ll be very long breaks between the sets. South of Yamba, we may even see early SW winds across the Mid North Coast before moderate S/SE winds kick in from mid-late morning onwards.

Next week (Jan 25th onwards)

The long range E’ly swell should hold through Monday in the 3-5ft range at exposed beaches - smaller everywhere else as detailed above, but with a chance for occasional rogue 6ft+ sets at some reliable swell magnets in Northern NSW - before easing into Tuesday. 

An easing pressure gradient should allow for early light SW winds in most areas, tending moderate SE throughout the day. Once again the outer points should provide the best waves. 

Easing swells and similarly light winds are then expected on Tuesday.

But - and here’s a curveball for ya - some of the latest model output now has TC Victor intensifying rapidly just north of New Zealand on Sunday as the system becomes fully extratropical. At this stage we’re looking at surface winds of 50kts+ in a favourably aligned part of our swell window, with a slight westward push. Hard to believe, but that's what's on the charts, and seems quite plausible too given the blocking pattern upstream. 

I’m nervous about giving this secondary episode too much emphasis, but right now it’s hard not to see the potential for some serious 5-6ft+ surf across a slightly broader swathe of the coast arriving on Wednesday. By that, I mean rather than the bigger sets restricted to a handful swell magnets (as I’m expecting this Sunday/Monday), most open coasts in Northern NSW could be looking at a more uniform size distribution - however slightly smaller surf is possible throughout the Gold and Sunshine Coasts (away from the swell magnets) due to the slight south-east of east swell direction. 

This pulse is not showing on the charts right now (should update in the next few hours) and I’ll assess the model updates over the weekend. But in short - there’s plenty of life left in Victor and it’s likely that we’ll see continuing E’ly swell not just through until next Thursday (as suggested over the last week of forecast notes) but maybe even Friday or Saturday, depending how long its remnants linger above New Zealand. 

As for local winds - Wednesday should see similar light variable/sea breeze conditions in most coasts but Thursday will probably herald the return of a fresh spell of northerlies. Let’s take a closer look on Monday.

‘Till then, have a great weekend.