South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 20th January)

Best Days: Sat: building E'ly swell with winds tending NW (a'noon S'ly change on Mid North Coast). May see late variable trend in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld. Sun/Mon: strong combo of inconsistent E'ly swell and building short range S/SE swell, with S'ly winds - best on the outer points. Tues/Wed: Easing E'ly and S/SE tending SE swells with abating winds, mainly SW tending SE.

Recap: Mainly tiny leftover surf in SE Qld for the last two days, but a new SE swell built across Northern NSW through Tuesday and was still present in the water this morning. Set waves weren’t much more than 2-3ft but with morning offshore winds there have been fun peaky waves at exposed beaches. Freshening afternoon onshore have however spoiled the party at most coasts. 

This week (Jan 21st - 22nd)

Yes, the forecast outlook is very complex. Let’s get stuck right into it.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Victor is still at Category 3 strength, about 740km east of Tonga. It’s tracking slowly W/SW, and pumping out long period E’ly swell that should start to filter in from tomorrow onwards (Victor’s actually been at cyclone strength in our swell window for around five days now). 

Initially, these forerunners will be very small in size and it’s expected that wave heights will slowly increase throughout Thursday, Friday and even Saturday as we push towards a peak around Sunday. In fact, ascertaining the specific swell trend is difficult because there are likely to be many overlapping swell trains in the water at any given time. This will lead to periods of lully conditions, and (less frequently) some periods of higher consistency surf energy.

But on the balance, due to the enormous distance this swell will have travelled, I expect set waves to be extremely inconsistent from this source. 

As I’ve discussed elsewhere, the duration of this (progged) swell event is quite incredible. Although Victor will technically weaken over the coming days (to Cat 1 by Saturday), it’s expected to remain a significant swell generating system right through the weekend, thanks to a large high to its south, which will maintain a broad band of easterly gales. This should ensure we see some form of easterly swell all the way through until next Wednesday or even Thursday morning. 

However peak wave heights are expected on Sunday and Monday, generally offering inconsistent sets between 3ft and occasionally 5ft at most open beaches, and smaller waves running down the various points. Some reliable swell magnets across Northern NSW should see occasional bigger bombs (maybe 6ft+) but they’ll be very far and few between. The primary east swell(s) itself will be inconsistent enough as it is.

So with the east swell summarised as such, let’s take a look at the local winds, as that’s really going to dictate where and when we surf over the coming days. 

It’s kind of fortunate that the initial slow building trend (i.e. the smallest days of the swell event) will occur on Thursday and Friday, because we’re looking at prolonged northerly winds about all coasts, thanks to a stationary ridge associated with a low moving Tasman high. There is a chance for brief periods of early morning NW winds (mainly north of Byron), however south of here it’ll be straight N’ly and will become quite gusty at times. This will limit the only surfable options to protected northern corners.

Given what’s in store for the following days, I’d give it a miss. 

This weekend (Jan 23rd - 24th)

A trough is expected to push across the NSW coast on Saturday, and the good news is that the latest model guidance has strengthened it - even forming a small (though not especially strong) low off the Northern NSW coast on Sunday. 

The southerly change trailing the trough is expected to reach the Mid North Coast early afternoon Saturday, and the Far North Coast probably well after dinner time.

Ahead of the change we’ll see strengthening N’ly winds (likely overnight Friday) tending NW through Saturday morning. There are some ramifications of these winds that have both positives and negatives, depending on where and when you want to surf. 

First off, the wind swing from the N to the NW will be crucial for SE Qld surf prospects. Without this directional change, almost everywhere will be blown out - but a NW breeze should open up the northern beaches nicely. And the small N’ly windswell generated by Friday night’s winds should slightly delineate the long period E’ly groundswell, providing an entry point on (potentially) bankless beachies (just putting it out there!).

The negative is that these winds - no matter whether N or NW - will ruin the points. But that should all switch about face on Sunday once the southerly rockets through. 

It’s also worth pointing out that we may see a short period - say, one or two hours - where winds slacken off a few hours ahead of the southerly change. Therefore, if you’re in Far Northern NSW or SE Qld, keep an eye out for a period of cleaner conditions late Saturday afternoon.

On Sunday, we’ll be looking at the peak of the long range E'ly swell, and the southerly fetch around the (developing) surface low off the North Coast should also whip up some short range swell - nothing overly large, but probably reaching 3-4ft at south facing beaches in the Ballina region by late afternoon, and a little smaller south of Coffs (due to a shorter fetch length), and obviously smaller in SE Qld due to the acute southerly direction.

But the biggest beneficiary of Sunday’s wind change will be the points. There’s an outside chance for a period of early SW winds - probably just around the southern Gold Coast, and maybe parts of the Far Northern NSW coast - but in general we’re expecting gusty S’lies that’ll favour the outer SE Qld points the best. Semi-exposed points in Northern NSW may become slightly wind affected but it’ll be a lot better than Saturday’s northerlies. 

And just to recap on size from the E’ly groundswell, we’re looking at slowly building surf all day Saturday and into Sunday, reaching a peak between 3ft and occasionally 5ft across most open beaches, with slightly smaller waves running down the length of the points. A couple of reliable swell magnets may see rare bigger bombs in the 6ft+ range but this will certainly be the exception rather than the rule.

However, I cannot overstate just how inconsistent this long range east swell will be - expect 20 minutes or more between set waves at times. 

At least the short range S/SE swell will filling the gaps and increasing the wave count at the outer points from what would otherwise be a low number affair.

Next week (Jan 25th onwards)

Victor's east swell will continue to hold into Monday, before starting to slowly ease from Tuesday - though still displaying plenty of size and strength. By Wednesday we’ll really start to see wave heights drop off but there should be small levels of residual east swell persisting through until Thursday.

The low developing off Northern NSW on Sunday should also maintain a decent amount of short range S/SE swell into Monday, up to 3-4ft at south facing beaches in Far Northern NSW, but a little smaller south of about Coffs and also smaller throughout SE Qld (the east swell will still be the dominant energy during this time anyway). 

In fact, a moderate ridge stretching way back into the central Tasman Sea should somewhat arrest the easing trend from this source we should see small to moderate levels of secondary S/SE tending SE swell through Tuesday and maybe Wednesday. 

Local winds look initially good for the points (again) on Monday with an easing S’ly flow, likely to be SW for a reasonable stint in the morning. By Tuesday the wind will have eased off as the synoptic pattern weakens; early light W’ly winds and afternoon sea breezes looks the most likely outcome. By Wednesday will be in a similar situation but with winds tending northerly as another trough moves up the coast.

Long term swell potential hinges around a couple of source. The weekend’s low off the North Coast may slide SE down the Tasman ridge into a position west of New Zealand, which could set up a small new E/SE swell for Northern NSW later next week.

However a strong S’ly change trailing the Wed/Thurs trough (in Southern NSW) looks set to generate a solid S’ly swell for Northern NSW during the end of next week and the following weekend. More on this in Friday’s notes.