South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 18th January)

Best Days: Tues/Wed AM: small swells in Northern NSW with light morning winds. Thurs/Fri: slowly building long range E'ly swell but tricky winds. Mainly northern corners only. Sat/Sun: solid long period E'ly swell, with tricky winds - but there should be options. Mon/Tues/Wed: solid but easing E'ly swell

Recap: Plenty of swell and wind out of the southern quadrant over the weekend, with a general easing trend from all sources. Saturday morning was sizeable, with 5-6ft sets at south facing beaches in Northern NSW, and 3ft surf in SE Qld; Sunday was down a little (3-5ft and 2-3ft respectively) but winds remained fresh S/SW thru SE and therefore only suited to protected locations. A new E/SE swell pushed through in the afternoon, maintaining a similar albeit inconsistent size throughout SE Qld after lunch, and arresting the easing trend in Northern NSW. Today we’ve seen this E/SE slowly easing size though open beaches saw 2-3ft sets early morning. Early light W/SW winds in most regions have swung to a moderate to fresh SE breeze this afternoon. 

This week and weekend (Jan 19th - 24th)

The weekend’s Tasman low was downgraded further since Friday’s model runs and I’m not particularly inspired for any quality waves over the coming days.

Tuesday should offer light variable winds and afternoon sea breezes (E’ly in SE Qld, NE in Northern NSW) but surf size will remain generally small, building slowly all day towards a peak around Wednesday with inconsistent sets around the 2-3ft mark at south facing beaches in Northern NSW (models aren’t picking up this swell very well). 

The surf will only be sideband energy as the responsible fetch wasn’t particularly well aimed in our direction, so not only will set waves be infrequent, they’ll be confined to south facing beaches, with not much getting in elsewhere - including SE Qld. So here we’ll be relying on tiny residual swell to keep the open beaches active for the next few days. 

In short, I’m really not expecting anything great for the short term, especially with freshening northerly winds forecast for most regions as the swell reaches a peak on Wednesday, light to moderate in SE Qld (following a period of light offshore winds early) but becoming fresh and gusty south of Byron Bay. 

Thursday will herald the leading edge of a long range E’ly swell that’s expected to dominate our region for some time. Extended groundswell events are not a common occurrence in our waters - aside from seasonal trade swells - because most swell sources usually only last for a few days at most. But Severe Tropical Cyclone Victor is now at Cat 3 strength, and meandering (there’s that word again!) around the South Pacific, south-east of Samoa - and will continue to do so until the weekend at least.

In fact, STC Victor is expected to undertake a westerly trajectory over the coming days that should help boost surf size and period, by working on a (very) active sea state and producing a captured fetch scenario. What’s even more impressive is the width of the core fetch over 50kts - some 150-250km in places - aimed generally towards our region (initially favouring southern NSW over northern NSW). 

So, the upshot of this is that we’re looking at several pulses of swell pushing through from sometime Thursday onwards, right the way through until Tuesday or Wednesday. 

At this stage the first half of the weekend is expected to see the peak of the broader cycle, and I think the models are doing a reasonable job, falling in line with my Friday predictions for a very inconsistent 3-5ft. However given the incredible ASCAT returns thus far, some reliable swell magnets may see stray sets above this (6ft+). By way of an example, with core wind speeds currently around 50-60kts, we should see peak swell periods reaching 18-19 seconds across the NSW coastal buoy network sometime later this week (of which the models are not expecting anywhere near as high as that). But the percentage of size at this period will be comparitavely small, so we have to excercise caution when estimating specific surf size. And it can't be overstated just how inconsistent this swell will be: it could be 20 minutes or more between the bigger waves. 

Regardless, it’ll be much smaller Thursday and Friday as the swells builds, and very lully at times owing to the enormous travel distance.

The main problem we have this week is the wind. A strong ridge across the coast is expected to freshen northerly winds through Thursday and probably Friday, so local conditions are not looking great. I’ll have a better idea on this in Wednesday's notes but for now the second half of the week will certainly provide challenging conditions to maximise the incoming easterly swell, especially in SE Qld.

Fortunately, the weekend has some promise with a weak trough expected to push along the coast that should instigate a shallow southerly change across some regions. My concern at this stage is that it may not quite reach the SE Qld region, so southern locations will probably benefit the most - but I’l have more idea on this in Wednesday’s update.

Next week (Jan 25th onwards)

With STC Victor expected to remain in our swell window in some capacity all the way up until Sunday, it’s likely that we’ll see continuing easterly swell through until Wednesday or possibly even Thursday of next week (albeit easing steadily by this time). 

There are no other significant features standing out on the charts for now, so let’s take a closer look at the incoming east swell on Wednesday. Fingers crossed for an improvement in the local wind outlook too!