South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 13th January)

Best Days: Thurs: northern corners (in NSW) with a building inconsistent S/SE swell. Fri: options in the Far North before a gusty S'ly change arrives. Maybe some late action on the southern Goldy points. Sat/Sun: SE Qld points. Mon: new S/SE swell in Northern NSW with good winds. 

Recap: A tricky couple of days of waves. The new E/NE swell from TC Ula has been a slow building, and incredibly inconsistent at times so it’s been hard to get a feel for just how much size has made it to the mainland. Early Tuesday morning didn’t have much but within a few hours new lines were (personally) observed on the Tweed Coast in the 2ft+ range. It didn’t build much beyond that but overnight it’s kicked in size with wave heights coming in around forecast expectations (occ 4ft sets North Coast, 2-3ft SE Qld), and close to the expected peak cycle. Even trickier over the last 48 hours have been the local winds. Northerlies created issues on Tuesday and in many SE Qld locations today, but the disruptive southerly change I only expected to reach the Port Macquarie region today ended up penetrating as far north as Evans Head, which is quite impressive. This has also kept the NE flow weaker than expected on the Far North Coast and in SE Qld.

Clean Moffats this morning

This week (January 14 - 15th)

So, we’re on the backside of this E/NE swell and surf size will become smaller and even less consistent (!) into Thursday. 

As a swell producer, TC Ula really hasn’t offered much potential aside from the brief window when it pushes out of the swell shadow of New Caledonia, and its track was momentarily towards the mainland. Since then it’s tracked rapidly E/SE across the Great Circle paths, which is very unfavourable - and compounded but a very short fetch length.  

So in short - don’t expect much quality from this direction over the next few days, apart from a few stray leftover sets early Thursday morning. 

BUT - and I’m jumping ahead here - the remnants of ex-TC Ula are expected to stall off the North Island of New Zealand on Thursday, forming a tight E’ly fetch on its southern flank which actually looks like it could produce a reasonable small east swell for sometime Sunday afternoon or maybe early Monday. More on that in a moment.

Thursday is also expected to see a new, building long period S/SE swell all day, generated by an intense polar low that formed off the ice shelf over the weekend. But, the erratic swell source (possibly contaminated by Antartican ice floes) and enormous travel distance guarantees a couple of things: very inconsistent set waves, and low confidence for any notable surf.

As it is, Thursday will fall back under the northerly regime anyway. Only the Sunshine Coast and possibly the Gold Coast are likely to see lighter, more manageable NE winds throughout the afternoon - when the swell is starting to reach a peak, and ironically this swell direction won’t produce anywhere near as much size here as it will on the Northern NSW coast. 

Most locations from Byron to Seal Rocks will see freshening northerly winds throughout the day so you’ll have to duck inside a sheltered northern corner for the best waves (they should see the most size too, which is good). If we’re really lucky, we should see extremely inconsistent but well defined lines between 3ft and maybe 4ft at south swell magnets south of Byron by late afternoon, with smaller 2ft waves at remaining beaches. But expect lengthy breaks of tiny conditions between waves. And, it’ll be much smaller early morning, especially in the north (this swell will reach the Mid North Coast first - our Coffs surfcam faces due S/SE and will therefore be a good tool to assess the day's potential).

Across SE Qld I doubt we’ll see much more than an infrequent 1-2ft by the afternoon (with a few bigger bombs at south swell magnets) on Thursday, probably with a similar size of leftover E/NE swell in the morning, but easing throughout the day. 

Friday will then see slowly easing swells from all sources, and a gusty S’ly change that’s due into Coffs Harbour mid-morning, reaching the border around lunchtime. The Far Northern NSW coast should see good leftover S/SE swell similar to the size range seen late Thursday, but get in before the southerly change kicks in. A strong S’ly fetch trailing the change will whip up a chunky windswell for the afternoon but only protected southern corners in Northern NSW will have (smaller) workable conditions, and I’m skeptical that the change will arrive in time for a notable increase across SE Qld - just a brief delay by an hour or two could throw a spanner in the works.

It’s certainly possibly that we will see a mid-late afternoon push but at this stage you’d be best off hedging your bets on the Gold Coast, as the sand bottom points here are much more capable of delivering useful surf even if there's not a great deal of size. As a rough guesstimate the outer Goldy points should crack 2-3ft in the last hour or three of the day but I am less confident for anything useful across the Sunshine Coast. However keep an eye on the comments below for updates on the timing.

This weekend (Jan 16 - 17th)

The weekend forecast is relatively straight forward. A strong ridge will build across the Southern Qld coast behind Friday’s change, maintaining fresh S/SE winds all weekend, possibly lighter and more SW in a few selected spots for a few hours early morning. 

The surf will mainly consisted of short and mid-range S/SE swell originating from this ridge. Despite plenty of size at south facing beaches early Saturday (4-6ft), without any major strength in the swell - relatively speaking - we’re not looking anything noteworthy across the semi-exposed points and there’ll be quite a wobble through the lineup. But there will certainly be some waves. 

As such this period looks like it’ll be (once again) best suited to the southern Gold Coast points, with size around 3ft on Saturday easing to 2-3ft on Sunday morning and 2ft by the afternoon. 

In Northern NSW, protected southern corners should have small peaky waves all weekend, but it won’t have quite the quality we’ve been getting used to in recent weeks. 

Also in the mix on Sunday afternoon should be a small undercurrent of new E’ly swell from the remnants of TC Ula, which is expected to intensify Thursday and Friday north of New Zealand. No major size is expected but exposed beaches may pull in a few inconsistent 2-3ft sets from this source by late in the day.  

Next week (Jan 18th onwards)

Model guidance still has a Tasman Low forming within the trough line associated with Friday’s change on Saturday, but much further south that Monday’s output suggested, and with a slightly erratic path. 

We’re still looking at a strong new push of S/SE groundswell on Monday from this system, and the good news is that local winds should abate significantly by this time to allow for much cleaner waves across the semi-exposed points.

At this stage, I’m expecting 4-6ft surf across south facing beaches in Northern NSW, and smaller 3-5ft waves at the semi-exposed points. Surf size will be even smaller at sheltered locations, and a downwards trend is expected in the late afternoon and into Tuesday. That being said, the latest model runs maintain this system in the lower Tasman Sea for a few days - albeit in a weakened state - so we should see smaller SE swells through the middle of next week.

Across SE Qld this S/SE swell won't achieve much size due to the direction (1-2ft most beaches, occ 3ft+ south swell magnets), with Sunday's late E'ly swell likely to contibute very inconsistent but probably more useful surf in the 2-3ft range.

Other than that, the large South Pacific system mentioned in Monday’s notes is still lining up impressively. It’s a very large distance for the mainland but at this stage it’s expected to exhibit respectable fetch length, and also remain slow moving - which means we should see some quality long range groundswell arriving sometime around next Thursday (give or take) and persisting for two or three days. Still early days to call a possible size range but extremely inconsistent 3-4ft sets seem likely at the moment. More on this in Friday’s notes.