South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 11th January)

Best Days: N'ly winds will create some problems this week. But a new E/NE swell (building Tues, peaking Wed) and a S/SE swell (building Thurs, peaking Fri) will provide waves across exposed coasts. We've then got a windy weekend ahead best suited ot the southern Qld outer points, and a solid S/SE tending SE swell for Monday. And more swell beyond that too.  

Recap: I’m pretty happy with the weekend’s call. Friday’s strong S/SE swell eased into Saturday though still remained strong across Northern NSW (3-5ft exposed coasts), with smaller waves in SE Qld (2-3ft). On Sunday, the SE Qld region saw a small mix of E’ly and residual S/SE swell around 1-2ft however the Northern NSW coast picked up a strong S’ly groundswell with south facing beaches south of Byron seeing 4-6ft sets. The acute swell direction saw smaller waves along the Tweed Coast, but very little across most Gold and Sunshine Coasts away from south swell magnets. As for conditions, winds were light offshore in the morning with moderate afternoon sea breezes. Today we’ve seen similar conditions with a steadily easing S’ly swell, biggest in Northern NSW once again with early 3-4ft sets and not a great deal of size happening north of the border.

This week (January 12 - 15th)

We have two new groundswells on the way, which should provide good waves at some selected locations mid-week.

However with a persistent northerly pattern across our region until Friday, you’ll have to work around those locations that offer protection as it’ll certainly be enough to create problems at the points and many exposed beaches.

The two swells are from the sources identified last week - Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula, and an intense polar low that developed well south of New Zealand over the weekend. The first system is very small in diameter (re: short fetch length), and the latter is located a large distance away from the mainland, so set waves will be very inconsistent right across the board (patience, grasshopper!).

The leading edge of E/NE swell from STC Ula is modeled to arrive across the SE Qld/Far Northern NSW sometime on Tuesday, probably in the morning with a steady upwards trend in the afternoon, before plateauing overnight into Wednesday morning. STC Ula is much stronger today than Friday’s models expected however the radius of the core wind speeds above 50kts is only small, so I’m not revising up the forecast in any major way, other than offering the chance for a few rogue bigger waves than what was forecast last week.

For the most part, we’ll see a slow and steady increase into the 2-3ft+ range by late Tuesday afternoon (expect smaller residual waves early Tuesday), with a later arrival and upwards trend across the Mid North Coast. Early light N/NW winds will become fresh and gusty from the N/NE into the afternoon, especially south from Ballina. But north of Byron Bay we’ll see less strength in the afternoon breeze, especially across the Sunshine Coast. So this could offer workable options at some open beaches if we're lucky.

Model guidance has the swell reaching a peak on Wednesday morning, and whilst I think there’s a reasonable chance for very infrequent sets in the 4ft range at exposed spots, for the most part we’ll probably be surfing smaller 2-3ft+ waves - equally inconsistent too. Cyclone swells are notoriously fickle and frequently underperform, so please don't get your hopes up for anything amazing, especially with a less-than-stellar wind outlook.

For what its worth, I’m also a little worried that the swell source and storm track may not be quite as favourable for the Sunshine Coast, and to a slightly lesser degree even the Gold Coast (compared to Northern NSW), so don’t be surprised if the swell performs a little under spec here. 

Nevertheless, winds are expected to freshen from the NE across most areas throughout Wednesday, strongest between Yamba and Port Mac. Interestingly, model guidance has a weak low forming east of Newcastle in the morning and this may disrupt the northerly flow throughout Wednesday, but probably only up to about Port Macquarie. There are limited coastal obs in this area so you’ll have to play things by ear.

As the E/NE swell slowly starts to ease through Wednesday afternoon, the leading edge of a long range S/SE groundswell is expected to nose into Southern NSW, reaching Northern NSW overnight and into Thursday morning. This will essentially replace the E/NE swell (which will be quickly diminishing by Thursday) to become the primary swell train. 

I am a little worried about the core fetch’s location over Antartican ice floes - which may reduce the swell potential - however ASCAT satellite passes over the weekend recorded consecutive 40-50kt+ fetches which suggests we’ll see some decent long period swell pushing through. Regardless, the very long travel distance will result in much smaller waves from this source, so expect twenty minutes of more between sets at times. 

A peak in size is likely later Thursday, maybe even overnight and into early Friday morning, with 3ft to almost 4ft sets at exposed south swell magnets south of Byron. North of Byron - and especially across SE Qld - surf size will be much smaller (1-2ft+), and even less consistent. But with no other major swell sources in the water this will be your only energy to capitalise on.

Thursday’s freshening northerly wind will create issues away from protected northern corners, but Friday looks a whole lot better with a gusty southerly change advancing along the coast.

It’s expected to be near Coffs Harbour at dawn and Coolangatta around lunchtime or early afternoon (I’ll revise this timing on Wednesday) but ahead off the change we’re looking at light variable winds for a few hours, perhaps a NW breeze across SE Qld to start the day (though with only small swells here it’s not worth getting too excited about). So there should be some windows of opportunity to capitlise on the peaking S/SE swell, especially in Far Northern NSW.

The fetch trailing Friday’s southerly is expected to be quite robust and will probably wipe out surf conditions for the afternoon across many Northern NSW locations, but this will be in preparation of an active weekend of waves. So it won’t be in vain. However despite the strength, the timing of the change doesn’t look favourable for SE Qld at all - at a pinch maybe a late increase in short range S/SE swell for the southern Gold Coast points but that’s about it.

More on this in Wednesday’s update.

This weekend (Jan 16 - 17th)

A strong ridge will build across the Coral Sea and Qld coast this weekend, driving fresh S’ly tending SE winds across most regions. 

Most of the swell looks like it’ll be short period in nature, and once again best suited to the southern Gold Coast points (2-3ft) - south of the border will probably be quite wind affected and solid at exposed spots (4-6ft); much smaller across the semi-exposed points, though thoroughly workable. 

On Sunday we’re looking at a reduction in surf size and wind speed/strength in general. Computer model guidance has a deep secondary low forming in the central Tasman Sea early Saturday morning, which is expected to renew strong S/SE thru’ SE swell for Monday but at this stage it’s hard to see whether it’ll arrive before COB on Sunday (I have my doubts). I’ll have a better idea on Wednesday.

Next week (Jan 18th onwards)

The weekend’s Tasman Low looks like it’s going to generate a strong S/SE thru’ SE swell for Monday, with Northern NSW’s south facing beaches likely to pull in strong 5-6ft+ sets. The swell direction will as per usual cap wave heights north of the border but it’s looking like another extended run of fun small-to-moderate waves across the SE Qld outer points in and around the 3ft mark. This should then ease from Tuesday onwards.

Elsewhere, I’ll be keeping a broad tropical low between Fiji and Tahiti on close watch later this week and into the weekend - initially there doesn’t seem to be much structure to the system, but the end of the model run firms up an incredible easterly fetch well north-east of New Zealand that could generate a long range swell for the middle to latter part of next week (and beyond). However the enormous travel distance would result in much smaller surf compared to if the system were located East of Fijian longitudes. 

Anyway, there's a lot to look forward to, so check back Wednesday to see how things are shaping up for the weekend and beyond.