South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 6th January)

Best Days: Good waves most days but you'll have to work around the winds (especially Thursday and parts of Friday in Northern NSW). Friday morning probably the pick with a decent combo of swells and early SW winds. Should be good waves over the weekend in most spots though a little small in SE Qld. 

Recap: A full mixed bag on Tuesday with building SE swell across most regions, biggest in the south with 4-6ft sets by the afternoon. Surf size was smaller in the north around 2-3ft across the Gold and Sunshine Coasts. Winds were variable, sometimes NE across SE Qld and Northern NSW and the Lower Mid North Coast experienced driving onshore and extreme rainfall totals, but most areas otherwise offered workable options. Today we’ve seen the SE swell maintain size across the region (5-6ft Mid North Coast, 4-5ft North Coast, 3-4ft in SE Qld) plus an inconsistent long range E’ly swell originating from STC Ula, near Fiji. Set waves have generally been far and few between though occasional 4-5ft bombs have been observed from this direction across exposed locations. Though, the mid-range SE swell is certainly the dominant train. Winds have been mainly light and variable with sea breezes in the north, whilst an expected southerly change has been delayed along the Northern NSW coast - we saw a wind change in Coffs Harbour around 2pm but they’ve gone variable again, all thanks to the development of an East Coast Low within the trough line (out of interest, this ECL was first mentioned in these notes last Wednesday). 

This week (January 7th - 8th)

Whilst it’s still quite a complex forecast period ahead, we’re now through some of the tricky stuff so it’s a little easier to grasp the broad scale trends for the coming days.

There’s also been some interesting developments with TC Ula. Monday’s model guidance suggested a north-west curve up towards Vanuatu but the latest runs indicate it’ll slowly meander (how many times have I used that word lately!) just east of New Caledonia up into the weekend, before recurving to the south early next week. 

Whilst TC Ula is expected to pass just into the swell shadow offered by New Caledonia later Thursday and into Friday - shutting down this inconsistent, erratic swell source later in the the weekend - such future (modeled) developments would push it back into our swell window and open up the possibility if a fresh round of small, long period swell early-mid next week.

However the difference between this phase of TC Ula and its earlier incarnations would be the lack of a supporting ridge to the south, meaning the fetch length would be very small - which greatly reduces its swell potential.

Anyway, this is all wild speculation as we may very well see more changes to TC Ula’s future track in the coming days. Stay tuned to the comments section below for updates before Friday's fresh notes. 

For the meantime, we have several swell sources of much higher reliability that’ll provide most of the rideable surf for the coming days - TC Ula and will probably throw a few stray sets at exposed beaches from time to time (as a ballpark, 3ft+ Thurs, 3ft Friday, 2-3ft Sat, 2ft+ Sun) but it simply can’t be relied on as a primary swell source as it’ll probably be twenty minutes or more between single set waves. 

So, where else will we see surf from?

The supporting ridge south of TC Ula over the weekend (north and north-east of New Zealand) should maintain small residual E’ly swell across most regions for the coming days, mainly in the 2-3ft range before easing over the weekend. 

Additionally, the ECL that has drenched the Sydney, Hunter and Myall Lakes regions over the last few days is expected to push off the coast overnight and track eastwards through the Tasman Sea. A strong southerly fetch developing on its western flank will generate short range S’ly swell for Northern NSW (building throughout Thursday), with a trailing S/SE fetch at the bottom of the low generating a better, more useful swell for Northern NSW and exposed locations in SE Qld on Friday. 

There’ll probably be a slight lag on the building S’ly swell across Northern NSW on Thursday - especially in the Far North where we’re unlikely to see any major upwards trend until lunchtime and early afternoon - however fresh and gusty SW tending S’ly winds will confine the best waves to sheltered southern corners and points anyway (initially picking up the small easterly swells mentioned above). South facing beaches in Northern NSW should reach a peak around 4-6ft by late Thursday, with much smaller surf elsewhere due to the swell direction. 

The reinforcing S/SE pulse on Friday looks like it may be of a similar size, but it won’t last very long - peaking through the morning with maybe 4-6ft surf at south facing beaches in Northern NSW, and slightly bigger waves (than Thursday) at sheltered locations and semi-exposed points. But conditions look much better by this time with moderate SW tending S’ly winds, maybe even trending variable along the Mid North Coast late afternoon. Expect a slow easing trend throughout the afternoon.

Across SE Qld, Thursday probably won’t see a kick in new swell until very late in the day so if you’re planning on surfing tomorrow you’ll be best to aim for the open beaches (early SW winds, peaky mix of E’ly swells) with the points offering the cleanest conditions after lunch once the southerly kicks in (maybe a few bigger bombs at the Gold Coast’s outer points very late afternoon; south swell magnets will also pick up size but will be wind affected).

Friday looks a little better for SE Qld with a peaky mix of E’ly swells plus some S/SE swell that’ll provide 2-3ft+ sets at outer points, and slightly smaller waves across most open beaches and protected points. South swell magnets will be bigger and there’s a reasonable chance for a period of light SW winds early morning that may open up a window at these locations.

This weekend (January 9th - 10th)

I think we still need a few more days to assess the weekend’s potential - mainly due to the complexities associated with the ECL pushing off the coast, as it’ll be the weekend’s initial source of swell. 

Right now, it looks like we’ll see a couple of swells in the water:

1. small lingering E’ly swell from TC Ula and its previous supporting fetch 
2. easing S/SE swell from Friday’s reinforcing pulse (biggest early Saturday, and biggest in Northern NSW)
3. building S’ly groundswell late Saturday (Mid North Coast) and into Sunday (Far North Coast) from a strong frontal progression in the southern Tasman Sea. However I am doubtful that this will influence SE Qld to any major degree due to the swell direction.

The easing E’ly and S/SE swell should provide good waves at exposed beaches early Saturday morning, but right now I’m most interested in (from a Northern NSW perspective, anyway) the long range S'ly groundswell due to peak on Sunday morning - I think we’ll see strong 4-5ft sets at south facing beaches, and good waves across the semi-exposed points under a light SW tending S'ly breeze. Let’s see what the latest data suggests on Friday.

Next week (January 11th onwards)

Strong follow up fronts in the southern Tasman Sea over the weekend should keep south facing beaches in Northern NSW flush with quality small-to-moderate groundswell throughout the first half of next week. 

Additionally, there is a lot of potential - but also uncertainty - rergarding the swell possibilities from TC Ula, if it tracks south from the swell shadow of New Caledonia early next week. We could see a fresh E’ly groundswell Tues/Wed and maybe Thurs from this, but we definitely need a few more days to tidy up the model guidance.

See you Friday!