South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 25th December)

Best Days: Sat: easing SE swell from today with mainly light winds. Mon/Tues: building S/SE swell with some fun waves across the outer SE Qld points. Windy elsewhere. Wed/Thurs: fun seasonal trade swell.

Recap: Building SE swell on Thursday that delivered small fun waves across SE Qld and bigger, but more wind affected surf in Northern NSW. Size generally within the forecast range though we are now on the backside of the event with easing size across the region.

This weekend (December 26th - 27th)

*note: these forecast notes will be brief today due to Xmas*

The fetch across the central/northern Tasman Sea will rotate slightly anti-clockwise today, veering more E/NE, which will shut down the swell supply for Far Northern NSW and SE Qld but still maintain plenty of surf across the Mid North Coast into Saturday.

As such, Saturday is looking at the biggest waves south of about Coffs Harbour (3-4ft, smaller into the afternoon) with 3ft surf in Far Northern NSW and 1-2ft surf across SE Qld, maybe one or two bigger waves at exposed south swell magnets. 

Winds should be light and variable throughout the day with freshening NE breezes into the afternoon, strongest across the Mid North Coast. 

On Sunday morning, we’re looking at small residual swells across all coasts though biggest again south of Coffs Harbour thanks to the same swell trend evident Saturday. Most Gold and sunshine Coast beaches are looking at peaky 1-2ft surf, with 2ft+ waves from the border down to Yamba and 2-3ft south from Coffs. 

A gusty S’ly change will push across the Mid North Coast around dawn, reaching the border probably before lunch and extending through to the Sunshine Coast by early-mid afternoon. Initially, the fetch trailing the change will be quite strong but narrow, which will limit any afternoon size increase to short period windswell, only at exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW. Most beaches won’t see any decent size increase until Monday. 

Therefore, get in early for a surf on Sunday as it’s going to become quite windy throughout the day, and there’s only low confidence that the afternoon’s swell increase will provide anything notable across those locations offering shelter from the wind. At a pinch, the southern Gold Coast points may offer the best options late in the day, because of their sand bottom construction allows even small swells to provide workable waves.

Next week (December 28th onwards)

An embedded low within the southerly fetch training Sunday’s change - located much further south - is expected to enhance the pre-existing sea state later Sunday and into Monday, kicking up a solid S/SE swell for the region. This will be accompanied by gusty S/SE winds as the ridge builds through the Coral Sea so only protected points will offer workable waves through this period. 

At this stage the models are still moving around a bit but it looks like we’ll see building surf all day Monday ahead of a peak that afternoon, before easing on Tuesday. However SE Qld and Far Northern NSW will benefit from the strengthening ridge on Tuesday that should increase short range S/SE swell across the region, compensating for the easing mid-period groundswell generated by the embedded low.

Roughly speaking, we’re looking at late Monday and Tuesday offering 3ft+ waves across the SE Qld outer points (bigger at exposed south facing beaches, but very wind affected). Northern NSW will see larger waves - maybe 3-5ft - but it’ll be harder to find somewhere out of the wind. The Mid North Coast will probably see an easing trend from late Tuesday morning onwards.

This overall pattern will then ease from Wednesday, with a moderate but broad trade flow across the Coral Sea maintaining small SE swells across most open beaches (biggest in SE Qld) through the second half of the week.

The dynamic possibilities discussed in previous notes concerning the monsoon passage to the north are still unsure. There’s presently no indication of any significant swell events though we are seeing regular changes throughout the model output, so let’s take a closer look on Monday (I’ll review the data over the weekend too, and add some notes in the comments section below).