South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 14th December)

Best Days: Tues/Wed: small beachies early morning with light winds. Thurs/Fri/Sat: solid E'ly swell building with a peak on Friday.. you'll need to look for protection from E/SE winds though. Sun/Mon: easing E'ly swell with light winds. 

Recap: Very ordinary waves over the weekend, being a combination of small easing NE windswell early Saturday and building SE and S’ly swells on Sunday. Local winds created bumpy conditions at open beaches in the north though, however the Mid North Coast enjoyed lighter winds and more favourable conditions. A small SE swell is providing peaky 2ft surf at most open beaches today.

This week (Tuesday 15th - Friday 18th December)

We’ve got a large multi-centered high pressure system expected to occupy the Tasman Sea for the next few days, and this will influence our winds and waves for the short term. The axis of the ridge lies across SE Qld, and this will result in generally light variable winds in the mornings across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with moderate afternoon sea breezes. The Mid North Coast will see a little more strength in the synoptic NE breeze, but early morning should still offer periods of light NW winds. 

Along the northern flank of the high - across the northern Tasman Sea - a tropical depression south of New Caledonia is creating a small squeeze, resulting in a modest SE fetch aimed generally up into the Coral Sea. The backend of this fetch is better aligned for our coasts but it’s still not especially strong, and is also some distance off the coast (this point wouldn’t matter if surface winds were above 25kts, but as they’re generally under 20kts, and every extra kilometre of travel counts).

In any case this fetch will maintain small pulse SE swells for the next few days, quite tidally affected and only suited to the wide open beach breaks with sets in and around the 2ft mark through Tuesday and Wednesday. Keep your expectations low, and work around the early morning slack winds and you may pick up some fun beachies. 

Thursday is where things start to get interesting. I’m not sure if the easterly dip/tropical depression across the Northern Tasman Sea going to actually retrograde westward - it certainly looks plausible - but either way we’re looking at a strengthening surface trough right up against the SE Qld/Far Northern NSW coast later this week, with the possibility of a small embedded low contained within.

So, as a baseline - we’re looking at steadily increasing surf from Thursday ahead of a peak in size on Friday. Just how much size we see will depend on whether we see a closed low form at the surface, and then just how strong the winds develop around it. This may sound overly simplistic, but the important factor here is the proximity of the fetch to the mainland. Small differences in wind speeds within a storm 1,000km off the mainland tends to have only subtle effects on the eventual surf at the coast, whereas an extra ten knots of wind from a low pressure system right on the coast can increase wave heights by two or three feet (or more!).

Also, it’s important that we don’t forget the trailing fetch behind whatever kind of surface low forms off the coast. Whilst the low itself will likely be responsible for most of the size at the peak of the event (due Friday), the trailing fetch will slow the easing trend - meaning we’re likely to see solid surf persist through Saturday, Sunday and Monday - albeit down a notch in size each day. In my opinion, this is one of the underrated parts of the SE Qld/Northern NSW easterly swell cycle. Not only will the wavelength have drawn out properly by this time, allowing the swell to focus efficiently down the point breaks, most of the crowds are exhausted as well, leaving more waves for discerning punters. 

And another point in favour of some good waves inbound - these close range swells throw out a wide mix of swell periods, resulting in a super consistent blend of energy that's ideal for the outer points on the upwards phase. Not all waves are perfect to begin with (see the point above about the wavelength drawing out on the backside of the event) but there's a heck of a lot less waiting around between sets. So this is a positive for Thursday and Friday.

But I digress.. back to the forecast notes. Thursday and Friday will see steadily building surf towards a peak that’s currently due Friday afternoon, with set waves around the 5-6ft mark at open beaches and outer points in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (smaller at protected spots and inner points).

However this surf will probably be accompanied by gusty E/SE winds, rendering most breaks very bumpy and choppy. It’s quite possible that - if the low develops - we’ll see winds tend more southerly in direction, but this will be north of the low’s axis and therefore more likely on the Sunshine Coast than anywhere else (with decreasing chances as you head south across the Gold Coast, Tweed Coast etc). We'll have a better idea on this over the coming days.

South of the border, we're looking at smaller waves heights from this event south of about Yamba, and winds look like they’ll cause problems out of the east - though locations south of Coffs should see lighter winds so hopefully there’ll be workable waves across the points. 

So, in short: small beach breaks Tuesday and Wednesday, with building E’ly swells Thursday reaching a peak Friday - but with generally moderate to fresh E/SE winds. Let’s refine this in more detail on Wednesday. 

This weekend (Saturday 19th - Sunday 20th December)

Friday’s peak in E’ly swell looks like it’ll slowly ease over the weekend, with onshore winds also moderating. This will hopefully allow for periods of light SW winds in the early mornings, but regardless, even if there are a few lumps and bumps it looks like a fun weekend for the points with no shortage of east swell on tap across all regions. As a ballpark, expect 4-5ft surf at most open beaches Saturday easing to 3-4ft Sunday. 

Next week (December 21st onwards)

Unreal news for those of you looking to get some waves over the Xmas break - the big high pressure system responsible for this easterly swell is expected to remain slow moving for some time (just a slow eastward track), resulting in a steady supply of small, long range E’ly swell through much of next week. There’s also a suggestion we’ll see a front push up the NSW coast early next week with an associated southerly swell trailing behind, but regardless the long term outlook is quite positive with plenty of swell for all regions.