South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 7th December)

Best Days: No great days. Tuesday morning should have small leftover waves at the beachies before the onshores pick up, and Thursday has some potential south of Yamba, as winds are likely to be light for a period as a weak trough moves across the region, but the surf will be mainly a small mix from the south and east. 

Recap: Excellent waves across most coasts for the last three days with a very slow trend in the size department. Saturday and Sunday both remained anywhere between 3ft and 5ft at exposed beaches, though sets were inconsistent. This morning, many open beaches were still seeing occasional 3-4ft waves though it’s a little smaller this afternoon. Winds have remained from the southern quadrant (early SW, tending S’ly then SE) so the outer points have maintained the best waves. 

Moffats, still pumping Monday morning

This week (Tuesday 8th December - Friday 11th December)  

Southeast QLD: Freshening northerly quadrant winds and slowly easing swells are the main ingredient for the entire week. 

Model guidance actually maintains a similar level of size on Tuesday as per today (1.5m @ 11sec, compared to 1.6m @ 11.2sec) but I’m not convinced we’ll see quite as much size in the surf zone tomorrow. The most likely outcome is for inconsistent 2-3ft sets at exposed beaches, and early light winds ahead of a moderate afternoon nor’easter. Get in early for the best waves.

On Wednesday winds will tend more more northerly in direction and freshen as a trough approaches from the south. Early surfers may pick up small residual waves at protected northern ends in the 2ft range (we may see a brief N/NW flow) but for the most part local winds will deteriorate wave quality. A small long period S’ly groundswell is expected to arrive after lunch, and may provide a few 2ft sets late in the day at the region’s handful of south swell magnets, but it’s hard to imagine there’ll be many quality options under these winds. Most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches won’t pick up this south swell at all.

The trough is not expected to reach much further north than about Yamba, so Thursday and Friday will remain under the influence of northerly winds. Again, there’s a chance for a brief period of N/NW winds early morning but in general there’s not much to get excited about. Wednesday afternoon’s late southerly swell should persist through Thursday morning, but again - only at south swell magnets. Most beaches will likely remain very small with an average mix of residual E’ly swell and NE windswell, in the 1.5ft range. 

Northern NSW: Northerly winds are going to cause problems for the next few days. Open beaches are still looking at some residual east swell in the 2-3ft range early mornings but you’ll need to tuck into a sheltered corner. The strength of Tuesday’s local NE winds should also generate a peaky NE windswell, mainly for the Mid North Coast on Wednesday.

Wednesday will also see a moderate S’ly groundswell push across the region, arriving at the Mid North Coast early-mid morning, and the Far North Coast early-mid afternoon. This swell will have been generated by a strong front pushing through the southern Tasman Sea on Sunday, and south swell magnets are likely to see occasional 3ft sets from this source. Expect long breaks between waves though.

A shallow southerly change will then push across the Mid North Coast on Thursday morning, altering the broader wind flow across the region as the trough stalls around Coffs Harbour. It appears that NE winds will persist across the Far North down to about Ballina or Evans Head, with lighter, more variable winds from Yamba to Coffs. The southerly change should reach Port Macquarie but no major strength is expected. With a lingering S’ly swell offering 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches (and some smaller NE windswell and residual E’ly swell), there may be an option of a fun peaky beach break on Thursday across southern regions between Seal Rocks and Yamba. But don't get your hopes up.

Friday will then see a return of the northerly flow, though we should see early NW winds across many regions. But without much more than a couple of feet of residual swell on tap there’s not a lot to get excited about.

This weekend (Saturday 12th December - Sunday 13th December)

Not much on the cards this weekend… yet. The models have a deep low pushing south of Tasmania on Wednesday afternoon but its alignment and storm track is pretty average for the East Coast so I’m not expecting much more than a couple of feet of inconsistent south swell at Northern NSW’s south swell magnets on Saturday (and nothing of any interest in SE Qld). There is a chance that it may receive an upgrade in the coming days but for now I’d keep your expectations in check.

Otherwise, the only other swell source for the weekend is a southerly change expected to push across the Mid North Coast after lunch on Saturday, reaching the Far North Coast late afternoon or into the evening. A ridge may build across the SE Qld coast behind the change, but as yet there’s not much confidence what will eventuate and therefore what kind of surf we might see behind it, on Sunday. I think we still need a few more days to sort things out, so let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.

Therefore, in general expect northerly winds on Saturday in most areas, with a chance for a southerly change pushing through during the middle of the weekend, but with mainly small, short range swells on offer both days. Certainly not worth rearranging the diary for right now.

Next week (Monday 14th December onwards)

Nothing of interest at this stage - looks like we may see northerlies redevelop next week and with no major swell sources on the horizon there’s a chance that we could be looking at an extended period of mediocrity for some time.