Here comes the east swell
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 2nd December)
Best Days: Thurs/Fri: building E'ly swell and short range S/SE swell, with gusty S/SE winds, great for the points across SE Qld and Northern NSW (expect smaller waves early Thursday). Sat/Sun: Solid but inconsistent and easing E'ly swell across most coasts, with moderate SW tending SE winds. Mon/Tues: light winds and easing swells.
Recap: Inconsistent, slowly building E’ly swells have dominated the last two days, with freshening northerly winds unexpectedly tending light and variable across some regions today (although, at the time this forecast was prepared, the Gold Coast looks pretty uninteresting under a 15kts N’ly breeze). Due to the distance swell source, set waves are very irregular but around the 3ft mark at exposed beaches.
This week (Thursday 3rd - Friday 4th December)
We’ve been discussing this inbound E’ly groundswell for quite some time. Without regurgitating the same analysis as previous forecasts, it’s probably worth honing in some specific points about the upcoming swell(s), so that expectations are kept in check.
I’ll start off with a SE Qld/Far Northern NSW-centric outlook first, as it’s certainly the most dynamic region with the highest weight of anticipation.
- The current east swell is expected to continue slowly building from Thursday, through Friday towards a peak later that afternoon or perhaps early Saturday morning. So, tomorrow morning probably won’t be that much bigger than today.
- A S’ly change originally forecast to reach the NSW/Qld border around dinnertime today has been delayed in the latest model runs by some 8-10 hours (arriving in the early hours of Thursday morning).
- The ramifications of the delayed changes means that its associated short range S/SE swell will be later to build across the region.
- Therefore, although winds are expected to be favourable for the outer SE Qld points for most of Thursday (there may be a slight lag on the Sunshine Coast), the surf is expected to remain quite inconsistent until the early afternoon when the secondary S/SE swell kicks in.
- For surfers in Northern NSW and SE Qld, Friday (specifically the morning) is probably the pick of the forecast period as we’re looking at a plateau of both swell sources, and early light to moderate SW/S’ly winds tending SE throughout the day.
Although the easterly groundswell is expected to build slowly in size, there’s no justifiable reason for an increase in the consistency of the set waves. At highly populated surf spots like the southern Gold Coast points, consistency is one of the crucial ingredients to maintaining some form of order through the lineup. Inconsistent swells often exacerbate overcrowding issues, as there are less waves to go around.
So, the bottom line is that there are likely to be a higher frequency of waves from Thursday afternoon through Friday, than at other time within the forecast period - all thanks to the secondary S/SE swell. Keep this in mind when choosing your surf destination.
The long range E’ly swell is expected to build from a very inconsistent 3ft+ Thursday morning up to an equally inconsistent 3-5ft by late Friday at exposed spots. There could be ten or fifteen minutes between decent sets at times; between them the short range S/SE swell will fill in the gaps, which is expected to reach 2-3ft across the outer points by late Thursday (holding into Friday).
Therefore, another way to consider the surf forecast for the next few days is for mainly small S/SE swell building from 1-2ft to 2-3ft across the outer points on Thursday, and holding in this size range into Friday. But every fifteen minutes or so, we’re likely to see bigger long period energy from the east that could punch anywhere between 3ft and maybe 5ft.
Now, as for the remainder of Northern NSW (south of Ballina) - we’re looking at a similar swell trend from the east, but with an earlier increase in short range S/SE energy on Thursday (than the far northern regions). However winds will confine the best waves to sheltered southern corners. Friday looks a little more manageable as the wind eases back - maybe with an early light sou’wester - but the sheltered points and coves will be your best bet.
This weekend (Saturday 5th December - Sunday 6th December)
The models have held the Coral Sea ridge across the region through into the weekend, albeit with a little less strength than what’s expected over the coming days. This will maintain a moderate SE regime across most areas, with pockets of light SW winds in the mornings.
The east swell is expected to hold steady into Saturday morning with inconsistent 3-5ft sets across exposed coasts, easing into the afternoon and further into Sunday. The short range SE swell will also ease throughout this period, and this point is a little more crucial as it’ll eat away at the overall consistency of many breaks (which will now be relying primarily on the distant swell source).
Nevertheless, this is a great swell and wind pattern for early December and it shouldn’t be too hard to find good waves up and down the coast.
Next week onwards (Monday 7th December onwards)
Nothing major expected for next week. At this stage we’re looking at a period of lighter winds in the north, tending northerly south of about Byron or Ballina, and with slowly easing E’ly groundswells.
A small refracted southerly groundswell is due to arrive mid-week from an extended period of strong polar activity well south and south-east of Tasmania from this weekend onwards, but it’ll only favour exposed south swell magnets in Northern NSW with inconsistent sets of around 3ft or so. I’ll detail this more comprehensively on Friday.
Comments
A few nice clean options at Moffs this arvo. Still looks to be around the 3ft mark, shame about the high tide.
Just did the rounds, looks about the same size as this morning (3ft), maybe a smidge bigger tho' a little cleaner with very light N winds. Lots of decent peaks on the open beaches.
W-SW @ Coffs.
2ft peaks with the odd 3ft! glassy @ 1st but all ova by mid morn with the wind too south for this little gem! Lost a fin on my last wave!
Couple hours out this arvo, wind died off and swell picked up a bit, long wait between them but 3ft of ENE on the sets. Hopefully good in the morning.
Looking pretty fun this AM.
Where? Not around here ... South wind is smashing what small swell there is!
Nice pics of "you know where" from yesterday, Ben..... By the look of the Moffs pic, you'd have to say that well know wedgy beachbreak just a bit to the north would've been hell fun..... But what would I know.. i live in S.A now bahahahaha..... And that web cam footage from this morning looks tasty....
Picture paints a thousand words, FR..... But nice try mate..... Ben called this small but fun swell 10 days ago.... And I backed him.... You didn't.... Yeah ok, it was a day late, but for ben to go out on a limb 10 bloody days ago, Jeez good call....
As far as this S.A thing goes, mate I spent most of my life up there... Know every grain of sand.... Are you telling me that if you were interstate,and you looked at a byron surf cam, you would have a fair idea of what is going on? I'd ask the same question of a Margs local.... If a bloke from margs who lived there for 25 years was in sydney, and he looked at a margs cam, do you think he'd have some idea of the conditions? In fact, I'd listen to caml's call on margs if he was watching it from a computer screen in fucking Las vegas before I'd take your call on margs from the line up....
But at least you got the balls to put your dukes up by yourself, unlike the little flies like seal and blowin, who run to a brawl and only have the courage to participate in numbers..... Cowardly....
Anyhooooo, great 10 day call ben.... Nearly 11 days actually..... Even if this little groundswell swell was a day late......
Very small this morning drove from surfers to snapper looking along the way. Raining didn't make it appealing Southern end only place surfable just too many people out witch is expected due to lack off surf lately.hopefully better luck tomorrow.
For the love of God, let it go Dog! You're like a maddog chasing it's tail, so far down the rabbit hole you've forgotten what you're arguing about.
Your call was that Sun/Mon/Tues would be the best days and that winds would not be an issue : "No it's not.... I'm pretty confident that there will not be a dominant high ridging up the qld coast to produce a "points only" scenario ( 20k+ se winds).... Dominant highs with strong ridges up the qld coast are quite rare this time of year.... GFS and A'G both look similar.... I'd expect Sun/Mon /Tues to be the pick....."
You were disagreeing with Ben, not agreeing with him.
Mate, with respect, that call couldn't have been more wrong. Sun/Mon/Tues were shit and we have a dominant high with SE winds up the coast with a points only scenario.
Exactly the opposite of what you called.
You've got this one wrong Dog. Everyone gets it wrong mate. Move on and learn from it.
There's crowded 2 ft surf at the Pass, the only surfable location within 50/100 k's of here. 2-3 at Snapper with a hundred of your closest mates.
Get over it mate.
I didn't deny there would be an E swell but said it would likely be underwhelming due to travel distance and a raggedy fetch and cyclone moving obliquely to the circle paths. So far it's been very underwhelming. I have no doubt there'll be a few moments but on the whole this is a crowded, inconsistent swell for the Points. We mostly missed the window for the beachies/backbeaches.
"We mostly missed the window for the beachies/backbeaches."
Really!!
With 15-20 knot S to SE winds over the next three days, yes. Unless you're talking about the back end of this swell.
Did you get a go-out from this swell Don?
Unfortunately no. I had plans for today, but work got in the road unfortunately. Still have something up my sleeve however. And looking at the obs, I'd say the next few days should come in above forecast expectations.
POPCORN!! NURSE, WHERE's MY POPCORN!!
Sthly well into it by 5:30am up here.
Anything on the Noosa points Sprout?
I'm the other end FR but the Noosa cams don't look particularly exciting.
Ridiculous on the Points FR,but there was somewhere.......
Isn't a shame when a dog comes down with rabies and starts frothing at the mouth.
They have periods of delirium and they don't know where they are or what they are doing, plus become extremely aggressive when approached or feel threatened.
They may exhibit paranoia, confusion,anxiety, hallucinations and even the fear of water which is sad to see but is part and parcel of such a terrible disease.
A normally placid dog may start biting, growling and playing the man in what may seem like an almost childish manner with all sorts of name calling etc, but rest assured it's the disease behind the behaviour.
The dog will also snap at what you and I would normally deem inconsequential things, such as being found wanting in a discussion or inappropriate comments about things they have little knowledge about but once again I must stress, it's the disease.
Unfortunately there is no know cure for such a terrible affliction and it is best to avoid their aggressive behaviour or shoot them (down in flames) as no amount of name calling, sensible discussion, pointing out of factual evidence will ever turn them into a dog you'd be happy to let your children near.
As they say "a picture paints a thousand words" even if it's been photo shopped, forged, taken from a different place, different day, had filters used, timed, staged, used out of context or whatever, so I'll just buzz off now on my cowardly ways.
By the way dog, have the French authorities asked for your help? As no doubt you would have seen the photos and footage of the terrorist attack and be able to provide them with a heaps more credible account than any eyewitness could ever dream of!
Please go away
May I suggest that each and everyone of us goes for a surf to wash away all this agro bitchiness. Just chill gents. It's over....move on....nothing to see here. Life's way to fecking short to be arguing over insignificant shit like this.
Yep Ok Don, I'll keep it civil.
Sorry people, got carried away.
Been in meetings all day - looking punchy at D'Bah. Time for a surf!
Ben, chances of offshores over the weekend on the Goldy? i'll get up at 4am for it
Sunday southern end of the Goldy Beachies and you might be in with a chance!!! :)
Looks like the Swellnet models have backed off the wind forecast even further on Sunday which is excellent news!
ie for the East facing beachies
Full house out at snapper .
surfed the local this arve. Raggedy, cross-onshore 3ft, the short range SE swell was by far the dominant signal, the odd E set was mostly too straight but when you got a linking SE wedge run into an E wall it was fun. Looked caca rode pretty good. V. hap I didn't drive to the pass.
:-)
Inconsistent 2-3ft+ sets at Manly from the swell. Banks pretty shit but.
Fun 2-3ft cross/offshore, a little inconsistent but good banks and pretty uncrowded. It's sometimes all in the timing on the Goldy. :)
Freeride, I come to look at the forcast for Gold Coast as I am interested and the swell is looking good and then I go to the comments most of which are quite positive and interesting and then I see your comments and they are the most negative comments posted and it's you every time, honestly sort yourself you knobjockey. Nobody cares that you think the swell will be shit and that your local break is shithouse ( this probably because your cursed by the barrel God becuse your so negative). Like honestly, have some positivity you dickhead, nobody wants your negative comments. Now my rant is over.
Freeride76= the most negative bloke of the year award
Bit harsh mate. Freeride's last comment was 'rode pretty good'. The summer onshore winds and swell doldrums does annually depress Freeride. Come back in autumn and winter when the point is firing and you'll find no one more enthusiastic.
This swell event so far has been very welcome, but only in the context that we are desperate up here at this time of year. Still, mostly this swell has been pretty ordinary so far. Pretty weak and patchy. Interesting to see what happens over the next couple of days. Ben's prediction has been accurate, if at the lower end of the predicted size but with Ben's clearly stated riders that it would be only really hitting some points and there would be long gaps between the better sets.
you cared enough to write a paragraph about it so fuck off yourself. Or make some contribution other than a personal attack. Irony= bloke coming on to a forecasting site to make a personal attack about someone being "negative".
Thats to the mexican above wally, not you.
Vicco, this is forecasting notes, people riff about the forecast. Sometimes swells come in better than forecast, sometimes worse. Thats the nature of the beast. People who study it a lot get passionate about it and things ocassionally get heated, mostly it's a civil discussion between learned gentlemen and everyone benefits. People put their opinions out there in a free marketplace of ideas and then have to defend them against the facts.
Ben's forecasting is consistently the best in the game and I'm the first one on here to give props to a tricky call. Bens latest call for this swell put in place a lot of the caveats which I'd been warning about from day dot and I think he nailed the influence of the short range SE swell which really, had been on nobodies radar.
And don't mention the 'elephant(s)' in the room (I mean the meat eating variety...)
It does everyone's head in a bit, but that's still better than your arse missing, so no complaints
from me so far.
Solid 3-5ft sets this morning, strongest east swell I have seen in a while around here.
Well called Ben.
Thanks mate. Was a difficult forecast (though, aren't they all?) and I'm pleased with the outcome.
Looks roughly the same size here Ben, still very raggedy with heaps of short range SE swell in the mix. Pretty crappy wave quality.
Don't know about giving it a 6 rating. But yeah, easily the most solid swell in a while.
By contrast here is a day in August that was given a 4 rating.
'Tis very wobbly on the Tweed but as per the Snapper surfcam, the Superbank is focusing these swells into lovely straight lines. Don't think I could be bothered with the crowds though, I'd rather aim for the lumpy, less crowded stuff meself.
"Don't think I could be bothered with the crowds though"
I don't see a problem...
Hahaha my god that's epic
and when you snag one wait for the 15 blatant drop ins!! there are less crowded options, no need to be a sheep
Yep, absolutely no options other than the crowded points. Frustrating when there's swell but shit wind direction with it ...
I agree wingnut got 3 Good waves in 2 hours at the superbank this morning....drop ins everywhere. Not enough time for other options before work ...guess everyone else has the same problem with taht southerly
I really don't know what everyone expected crowd wise this morning. Nearly every surf forecasting website has been telling everyone this morning was THE DAY for the points so one really has to expect the sheep masses to be there right on cue today.
Good size down here this morning, but really straight, only a few gems in the mix..
2-3ft with 4ft bombs every 20 minutes or so..
What a terrible way to start the morning Craig
Haha, yeah can't complain, pretty lucky. Best way to start and end the day :)
Ben, Craig... See? Check Seal's crass attack... Nothing to do with swell forecasting..... Ok, Seal, so you hold a grudges.... So you and I totally disagree on sharks....... You don't have to let your childish hatred of me re sharks or my political opinions manifest into some sort of stalking character attacking behaviour in the forecast notes, do you? FFS man.... Get a grip...
Now check the never ending criticism from FR.... All I did was agree with with Ben nearly 2 bloody weeks ago that a long range east swell was on the way.... The very first person to attack me, like I called the swell (but i didn't) was FR... And he says I should let it go.... So really FR, what you are saying is that you want immunity to attack people like me and not get a response...... I know you are a permanent barnacle, but it aiint the FR thread.... This is why I very rarely come here now, coz of this bullshit... I just hang with the political junkies in forums...
Yes, FR....back nearly 2 weeks ago, I agreed with Ben, said Sunday monday tuesday (and wed - you missed that) would probably be the best (wind wise - re' distribution of crowds)........ Yes Ben was wrong, and in agreeing with him, i was wrong..... No doubt........ But guess what, Ben adjusted his call... And guess what, I agreed..... Why aren't you bringing that up? i'll tell you why.... You're dirty.. You're dirty you didn't call the swell... In fact you wrote it off... probably the only guy on the coast hoping the swell will under deliver...
25/11 - 2 days after Ben's call (which i agreed with) FR - "Had another look at it this morning Don, and I'm not that jazzed. "
Now.. On 30th, when both Ben and myself re assessed, I wrote in a slightly humourous way;
"Just fix your dings, stop ya whinging, organize an early morning thursday or friday, and go catch some better than usual waves for early December.... 3 foot.... 4 foot.... 4.21597feet... Maybe 1.038 meters.... maybe 11.6648791458 seconds..... 3 wave sets every 10.44589 minutes, but a 4 wave set after six 3 wave sets in a row, followed by a 13 minute lull.... Winds ranging from nw to se..... The tides will be coming in, then going out, then coming back in again..."...... (pretty spot on really, but I got the tides wrong lol)
But here's what you wrote, only 4 days ago, on the same day;
"Hate to be Captain Doomsayer but this TD turning into a cyclone is the worst case scenario. "......................... "Take the fully developed sea state out of the equation and absent a perfect track and these long range cyclone swells don't add up to much"
Ben responded to you - "Agree with your points Steve, but I still think we'll see good swell from this system, as the fetch length is quite impressive."
So, FR, just stop it...... Ben was right.... You were wrong...... There's really good waves to be had... Your attack on me has nothing to do with the swell...... Just like seal, you hold a grudge towards my stance on sharks..... Well that's your problem mate.... Now go catch some fun waves...... And don't worry, FR, seal, and co, I'm done with forecast notes.... See ya in the forums with the real people...
That's a pretty decent sized set for The Pass, I reckon.
It's been a while since the sand has filled in to link up the rock section passed the boat ramp at the pass.
Yeah it seems to be heaving over that bank!
Good place to introduce yrself and make some friends, I reckon. Those long waits between sets would be a little awkward.
This makes cycling seem like an attractive past time. Lycra, coffees, the whole shebang.
Some really dredgy 2-4 footers at coffs this morning. Very pleased to have the day off. Love this east direction.
Now this looks very attractive.
That's not surfing that crowds a joke why bother.
You'd need to be a zen master in order to enjoy a surf out there - so much so you could probably just requisition a surf high sitting in the lotus position on a rug.
Ok Sheepdog, I agree to disagree and if you can refrain from name calling I'll refrain from smartarse comments.
I can't say as I hate you by any means, as I don't know you, I just had personal interests and didn't like being made out to be a fool over something I have a close involvement with, as you no doubt didn't like my smartarse responses.
So in future if we have any involvement in a subject lets keep the personal attacks out of it. Cheers and happy surfing, Seal
Just for the record i never doubted ya ben the peanut gallery can crap on all they like but your the man keep up the good work i have planned many a surf trip on your reports
After the initial amused shock has worn off , photos of extremely crowded breaks like the ones above just make me feel sad.
The circus is even worse this morning.
Been up at dawn the last 2 days looking for options outside of the GC
but really except for an hour yesterday morning - the semi exposed places were lumpy shifty etc as FR mentioned
Hoping Monday morning will produce a wider range of options maybe even Sunday am
This SE flow is pretty shitty for every where except Coolangatta
With swell predictions like this, is the time to go and search.
Success rate is high. Those crowds, as above, well - good luck.
Here comes the East Swell ?
That was extremely amusing........
To the bass yeow
Here comes the hotstepper
ah Welly you on another level
Love to see the crowds all in GC, just another day of 3-4 foot pumping waves here in Bali with 6 guys out
Surfed a good beachie this morning got a few.