Forget Tues and Wed; Thurs onwards looking great for the points
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 30th November)
Best Days: Tues/Wed: Find some protection from the N'ly wind (and eventually S'ly) on the Mid North Coast as the long range E'ly and local NE swells build. Thurs/Fri: building E'ly swell and gusty S/SE winds, great for the points across SE Qld and Northern NSW. Sat/Sun: Solid but inconsistent and easing E'ly swell across most coasts, with mainly light winds and sea breezes.
Recap: Not much in SE Qld on Saturday with a small SE swell off a fetch in the central Tasman only favouring Northern NSW, with open beaches reaching 3ft into the afternoon. Wave heights remained around this sized in Northern NSW on Sunday and SE Qld also saw a small rise in surf size thanks to a new E'ly swell, and although winds were onshore all day they remained light in the morning. Today we’ve seen a temporary, and somewhat unexpected easing trend from the east, but with an expected small southerly groundswell in Northern NSW and a northerly airstream.
This week (Tuesday 1st December - Friday 4th December)
Although easterly swells are expected to build across the coast for the next week or so, we can almost write off Tuesday and Wednesday in most northern regions because of the accompanying northerly winds. They’re expected to become quite fresh and gusty, which will create problems at many locations.
Model guidance is suggesting periods of N/NW winds both mornings, which may offer up some windows of opportunity at sheltered northern corners (particularly in the south), but the east swell will be slow to build across the region and set waves will be rather inconsistent. We’re also looking at a healthy NE windswell associated with the northerly flow but surf size from this source will be smaller at this locations offering protection from the wind.
A southerly change will advance along the Southern NSW coast on Wednesday, reaching the Mid North Coast late morning or lunchtime, before tracking northwards to reach the NSW/Qld border around dinnertime. Prior to the arrival of the change winds should veer lighter NW so this may open up a window of opportunity along the Northern NSW coast but it’s hard to have any confidence in the arrival times.
In any case, the E’ly swell from the tropical system I’ve been discussing for more than a week (which has actually spawned TC Tuni) is expected to peak in size around Friday or Saturday. And the good news is that we’re expecting fresh S/SE tending SE winds across the region, which is ideal for the SE Qld points.
In fact, the southerly change (and the associated ridge building through the Coral Sea) should be worthy of a decent short range SE in itself. This means that the consistency ratio this Thursday and Friday will be higher than if we were reliant on a single long range groundswell. In short: more waves to appease the frothing hordes at the points.
Southeast QLD: Forget Tuesday and Wednesday. The only options here will be sheltered northern corners in the early morning whilst there’s potentially a touch of west in the northerly airstream.
Thursday should see building surf all day from the east, and south-east. Open beaches will be a write-off with gusty SE winds, but the outer points should see set waves increase from 3-4ft Thursday morning up towards 3-5ft throughout Friday. There will be a lengthy wait for the bigger waves, but there’ll be lots of smaller 2-3ft sets (from the short range source) that’ll keep things active between.
Surf size will taper off down the points, and it’ll be smaller across sheltered locations/inner points, but all in all, this is a very good swell and wind pattern for December in SE Qld.
Northern NSW: Hard to pick the best period as it’ll depend on exactly where you are.
In the Far North, the northerly flow really won’t do many favours and we’ll be best off utilising the building swell and S/SE flow through Thursday and Friday. But the Mid North Coast has more sheltered options under northerly regimes, and once the southerly pushes through it’ll be confined to the protected points as the easterly swell continues to build through Thursday and Friday. All in all, there’ll be waves most days but pick your location according to your local wind profile.
This weekend (Saturday 5th December - Sunday 6th December)
At this stage the weekend looks really good. I’m expecting that we’ll reach the top of the easterly groundswell cycle early Saturday morning, before it eases into the afternoon and further into Sunday. Set waves should reach 3-5ft at most open coasts on Saturday morning, maybe one or two bigger sets at reliable swell magnets. By Sunday surf size will probably be down by a foot or so, maybe a little more.
However, the Coral Sea ridge will have begun weakening through Friday so the short range SE swell source will abate more rapidly through the weekend. This may lead to an increase in the inconsistency of set waves, as we’ll be more reliant on the long range E’ly groundswell.
Saturday’s winds look pretty good, with early light offshore winds and sea breezes both days, under the influence of a weak high. If anything, Sunday afternoon may become susceptible to a NE flow after lunch but at this stage no great strength is expected.
Next week onwards (Monday 7th December onwards)
No major systems lining up for the following week, so it looks like we’ll initially see a slowly easing E’ly groundswell with mainly light winds tending northerly throughout the first half of this period.
Long range model guidance is suggesting a polar low will steer a strong frontal progression through our far southern swell window over the weekend, which should give rise to a building S'ly groundswell for Northern NSW perhaps later Tuesday or Wednesday of next week (and holding into Thursday), but at this stage it doesn’t look like being anything amazing.
Comments
Looking fun and glassy at Coffs for the arvo sesh, sets in the 2-3ft range. I'm jealous!
Stowe your jealousy... Was good from afar but far from a good. The cam can be very deceiving when it's smaller.
Keen as mustard.
Thanks for the update Ben ..I especially like the "appease the frothing hoards" line ...haha ..can not wait!
Swell is laging a bit thought it would off been pushing 3ft this morning.
Think you went way too hard, too early on this call Dog.
"Seems to be a little early to have confidence in the local winds given how far this east swell is away, and with the likely synoptic patterns in the leadup."
No it's not.... I'm pretty confident that there will not be a dominant high ridging up the qld coast to produce a "points only" scenario ( 20k+ se winds).... Dominant highs with strong ridges up the qld coast are quite rare this time of year.... GFS and A'G both look similar.... I'd expect Sun/Mon /Tues to be the pick....."
So far, no sign of E'ly swell, it's still weak dribble. Still, at least you had the balls to make an early call.
I was just agreeing with Ben at that stage, FR..... So a dig at me is a dig at Ben too..... Ben wrote ". It’s a long time away but initial estimates would have 3ft to maybe 4ft sets at exposed beaches throughout Monday, Tuesday and maybe Wednesday if we’re lucky. But local winds will play a crucial role here and we need quite a few more days before any confidence will come into the local models. "........
As it panned out, Ben adjusted his call, which I also agreed with..... Next time I'll state my "agreeance".... Didn't know I had to.....
Still a good chance back beaches will be firing in the morning........
1-2ft wobble sunny coast barely ridable.....
Plenty of east swell on the Tweed Coast, reasonably consistent 2ft sets that are nicely lined up. Actually looks more ENE than anything. Just a shame about the wind.
Sorry Ben, but a wonky wind affected 2ft is not "plenty of E swell" that qualifies as "barely showing".
Just sharing my obs, Steve (as per your "no sign of E'ly swell"). From my vantage point, there was very little NE windswell, no noticeable leftover S'ly groundswell, but plenty of E'ly swell across the coast with sets the 2ft range. Looked reasonably surfable but the wind was starting to get into it.
OK it's showing, but jeez at 2 ft sets it's just above the background noise of a 1-2ft NE windswell. At least down here.
Hmmmm, actual observations aren't looking as promising as forecasts were.
Hahhah Poor Ben coping it from all angles.
Well I for one am grateful Ben, thanks for your hard work and in depth analysis. Seems like forcasting is a hot seat to sit on
Thanks Samba, yeah the hot seat goes with the gig so I'm comfortable with any and all feedback. I enjoy the banter anyway, and there's always useful information gleaned from across the broader coast too which adds to the knowledge base.
And the hardest thing with these forecasts is to hold your nerve.
It'd be very easy to panic tomorrow when writing the updated forecast notes - given the week and a half of discussion, and with an apparent lack of swell - to majorly downgrade the Thurs/Fri/Sat swell "just to be safe". Been there, done that and always regretted the decision.
The best way to learn is properly review the analysis, obs and model trends, stick to your guns and then seek out and take in every single coastal observation and see what happens.
3 foot east swell is definitely in the water
https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/coasts-waterways/beach/waves-sites/go...
10 seconds +....
Ya copping a bit of stick for a call you made over 8 days ago, Ben..... But bottomline you are probably 24hours out over 200 hours...... Tell 'em to get stuffed mate..... Still not a bad long range call....
Just had another coastal survey including backbeaches.
it's mostly a weak and wind affected 2ft but very, very occasionally there's a bigger set thats obviously part of the longer range swell , but shit, if you didn't know it was there and weren't looking for it you'd call it 2ft slop all day every day.
Samba nobody is giving Ben curry, it's just part and parcel of kicking the forecast and obs around. These long range E swells weren't even on the radar a few years ago so it's good to dial them in with real time obs and hindcasting.
I've been sceptical since day 1 that this fetch might over-promise and under-deliver.
All's well that ends well Ben! So hopefully we will see some ground swell build in the nxt couple of days!!Took a peek @ the BOM Interactive site and she is a long way out but in The window of the 30th parallel! Fingers crossed ! Thanx Ben for keepin me in the LOOP!
My comment above was by no means having a dig at Ben. I was merely pointing out I don't think this system has achieved the open ocean swells she's been modelled to achieve.
The afternoon "shitwind" was a given for Mon/tues and probably tomorrow.... But 3 foot east swell is in the water.... The obs' don't lie.....
The only thing I question out of this latest forecast is the pointcentric comment "we can almost write off Tuesday and Wednesday in most northern regions because of the accompanying northerly winds."....................... That very well may be the case for the goldy tomorrow, but those in the know will find waves in the morning.... I wont name names...... But the "most northern regions" can expect a few spots to have some super fun 3 footers..... It's just a matter of thinking about angles..... I wouldn't be surprised if this swell is smaller down your way FR, but bigger up where there's colours and sand flies....
By the sound of the obs Dog, it's smaller up there. Wouldn't expect much size difference from such a distant source.
And obs ain't obs if there's a 3 ft set every half hour amongst total dribble.
Fact is, we're supposed to be Day 3 of a long lasting E swell event and nary a wave has been ridden in anger yet. No doubt there will be moments but if all we got is head high sets at crowded points then there'll be queues of people wanting their money back.
A- I never hyped this swell... Hardly took part in even calling it
B- I said 3 foot.... That aint exactly "hyping"
C - You're a " science man"..... What do the buoys say? a pinch bigger on the sunny coast as compared to the tweed..
https://environment.ehp.qld.gov.au/waves/
The buoys are stats not science :p
Normally I would've said 1 & 2m Hmax & Hsig reads 1-2ft, but yes, angles...
hold tight it will have its moments
Don't go changing S-Doggy. I'll never fail to be amazed at how you can more accurately call surf conditions from South Oz compared to someone standing on the beach in front of it or surfing it.
But put your panties back on and tell us if you see anything looming in the Solomons or Gulf. This goose is cooked.
Who Let the dog out hahahaha
we're all just shooting the shit waiting for surf.
Day "4" of our E swell event and it's still very, very weak and inconsistent. To be honest, there's very little energy in the ocean. You have to look very long and hard to see any increase on yesterday.
Easy 2-3ft from the east this morning, four or five waves in every set though still quite inconsistent and with a northerly wobble through the lineup. Quite surfable though, depending on whether you've been in the water much over the last few weeks. I'll upload a few pics later.
Ben I admire your optimism but you can polish this one and roll it in glitter all you like it ain't going to change the facts. All three Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast and Ballina reports have given it 3/10. The worst NE slop days get 2/10 so this is just marginally better than total slop.
Anyway you slice it this is a supremely underwhelming swell event so far.
Hang on..... The guy that holds the all time swellnet record for continually bagging the reports is now using the reports as evidence..... Hilarious....
Sure, but as per the title of these Forecaster Notes ("Forget Tues and Wed.."), the first half of the week was never expected to be worthwhile anyway.
Let's see how Thursday and Friday (and even better, Sat and Sun) pan out before we hand in the report card.
Few shots from this AM (image quality isn't great, but the bloke driving down the line in the second image took off on an overhead bomb). Was quite clean on the face despite the northerly wobble.
Not too bad this morn up North,actually quite good given what we've had.2-3 ft beachies,light nw early,bit of wall,crowd nicely spread....Southerly change tommoroz going to cause anger no doubt.
Oh, as for cyclone hype? Worth checking some of the other forecast sites who are directly hyping up this event as the "first tropical cyclone swell of the season".
Fuckers
Plenty of sand off your nearest headland to home Ben, ever surfed it? gets pretty good every couple of years.
Yep, had some great sessions out there. Everyone seems to ignore it too.
FR - Go back through the threads you clown... I never even called this swell, just agreed with Ben..... At least he had the balls.... I in fact even posted a meme referring to "your hype" about cyclone swells.....
Now, for the umpteenth time re' looking at surf from "S.A", all I can say is stop being a fucktard.... It's 2015 mate, not 1985.... I an sitting here right now looking at a sunshine beach surf cam....... It's like I'm right there..... Then there's the fact that I spent most of my life there.... Ya dick....
I sms my mates.... You know, people I grew up with, people that call a spade a spade.... I haven't even met you, man...... Now I could upset the fuck out of Don, and tell you where was good this morning....
You are so fuckin' negative sometimes... You'd be a pain in the arse toi go surfing with.....
Anyhoooooooooo - the long suffering sunny coast boys got a few fun 3 footers this morning.... Bit of a walk.... But hey......
I vote quote of the week..
"Now I could upset the fuck out of Don, and tell you where was good this morning...." Haha
At the risk of turning swellnet into stabmag, there really should be a comment or post of the week. Anyone.. Anyone.....!
Yeah we've toyed with the idea for a while, but it has to be presented in the right kind of way. We'll see what we can do.
Comment of the week?
I liked freeride's comment to sheepdog: "mate, you've got to get away from all those churches, feral goat fuckers and nuclear waste dumps and get back to Gods Country."
Last Feb during a month of super consistent E'ly tradewind surf Doggy wasted thousands of hours of his time trying to tell us from Tasmania it was shitt, now he's wasting more time trying to tell us it's good when it's shitt.
Don't go changing Dog, you're incredible.
btw, you could probably drop your dukes, take a deep breath and not take this so personally.
Any waves down there today?
looking better now, looks like that S'ly change is weirding out around the trough line.
Yes, that's right that amaaazing 3 foot swell with an ese on it... Even posted a vid taken of snapper during that incredible swell..... It was standard underwhelming trade swell , which the vid both swellnet and coastalwatch ran clearly documented.... If you like I'll dig it up and post again....
BTW, I dont wear panties..... I go commando...
Normally the best way to get out of a hole is to stop digging.
It's OK mate, you'll still wake up tomorrow if you made a mistake on a surf call. No-one's going to think less of you.
Hmmm, looking at latest obs out there me thinks she might come in above expectations, but not so much over the next few days, perhaps closer to the weekend.
Freeride asked sheepy if there were any waves in South Oz today? I'll answer this one......
4 to 6 foot swell at the local reefbreak with glassy light winds, 4 guys out and no hype.
God's Country........
Let us know a cpl days in advance next time and me and me byron buddies will load up the kombi and drive down and join ya. ;)
If you do come down lostdoggy I can recommend a fine Chinese restaurant in West Wylong to eat at if you stop there overnight on your way down. Seriously I have mates who can't even get motivated to drive the three hours from Adelaide when the forecast is like this?
Ha,
One day I will. Won't be doing it in a group though.
Great direction YS, straight in there!
hahahahaha, that sounds damm fine YS.
Free rides amaaaaaaaazing surf - 12 to 15 feb
hahahahah Doggy, you never cease to amaze me. You win mate, no way can I argue against some amateur video of one day in a three week period of fun surf everyday.
Go buy yourself a bottle of bubbly mate and give yourself a toast.
4-6ft and offshore down your way today: ever thought about going surfing yourself as an alternative to arguing with other people about what the surf is like in their backyards?
Dude, go back to pages 10 to 13 in forecast notes...... You are lying.... It was the wonky swell over a few day between cyclones.... it's all there in black and white, man.... The best days was a thursday at burleigh, Ben supplied the vid.... Even that is average burleigh.... Stop bullshitting man..... You must really be bored...... You say "3 weeks"..... Crap man..... 5 or 6 days.....
Woooooow!!!!!!!! Now THAT was a swell to remember!!!!! Not Pam, nope..... ALL TIME!!!!! Not the one day wonder swell from Ola, or the tail end of marcia... Nope..... FR remembers the incredible trade swell event......
Embarrassed for you mate.... ;)
BTW it's 20 to 25 k onshore here ya toolbag
Just off topic (!), and the local's looking pretty fun this afternoon - winds have been under 10kts all day, completely against model expectations. Surf size still seems to be in the 3ft range on the sets, plenty of wobbly but otherwise fun options across the coast.
yeah, so much for fresh N'lies in advance of the S'ly change, looks like that change is slow moving between Port and Coffs.
You might be taking yourself a tad too seriously here Doggy.
Nah, you're just bored and getting old and cranky... happens to all of us.... You've got not much to do today.....
I'm finding this most amusing, I know it's not very fair to get the Dog worked up a bit but it's still fun getting the man who can never be wrong to go digging through the internet to prove he is right about surf a thousand miles away from him.
You getting any surf down that way SD?
OK, no more off topic.
The problem now is the surf is going to arrive with the SE winds which means 3ft sets at the Pass or taking on the zoo at the Superbank, which no doubt will look sensational in photos.
I'm sure it'll be just fine in front of the hut.
Just discovered you made Mungas Militia - epic movie mate.
Great soundtrack.
Geez, the fellas put away a few cones wearing out that tape.
Nice work.
How'd you find that movie?
Can't recall where they originated, but there was a few copies kicking around that were on high rotation for pre surf/ post night out sessions on the Hong Kong's.
Big hit amongst my crowd.
Was looking up Hellmenn this arvo after a prompting from the other thread - tripping priest ! - and wound up watching a putrid YouTube version of Munga's. Worst sound ever.
Then google rerouted me to an interview with yourself and coastalwatch for Freeride Voice.
Anyway, thanks again for the many hours of red eyed joy watching Munga slash , slurp and grope his way around the South Eastern sub tropics. All the inspiration a bunch of doped up , pisshead waxheads could hope for.
I might still have a VHS copy of it somewhere.
BTW - what about the chick in the black bikini ....
Down the beach, sunny day
I look to the sky above and I say ...hey
thank you Jesus
Thanks for bringing me along
Did you make any others ?
Coming from the man that is never wrong.... Ever...... Love it..... lol
"The problem now is the surf is going to arrive with the SE winds which means 3ft sets at the Pass or taking on the zoo at the Superbank, which no doubt will look sensational in photos."
Do you ever stop whinging? OH NO THE SURF IS GOING TO ARRIVE WITH SE WINDS!!!! NOOOOO!!!!!! Bahahahahaha
Yep that's the thing Freeride , as we've been shown before, photos or print taken from the internet are always much more reliable than eyewitness accounts. Be it surf reports , shark attacks or whatever, post a few photos or quotes from the web and that's undeniable evidence for your argument that no eyewitness could ever dispute!
I don't think Doggy realises just how batshit insane it is spending hundreds of hours trying to prove himself right and others wrong on surf a thousand miles away from him.
Most likely he probably hasn't quite let go of the fact that he no longer lives in QLD.
Let it go Dog. South Ozzie is alright.
Fancy being his missus:
" Mrs Sheepdog, I now present to you exhibits A through Z in dispute of your outrageous claim that yesterday was a pleasant day at the botanical gardens...."
"For Christ's sake Sheepdog, sit down , shut up and eat your scallop pie. I won't tell you again . "
"But, but......you said...and the weather channel said..."
:)
Looking more appealing this arvo all in all. Lets see what the morning brings
Yep, seal.... heresay is always better than fact....
Funniest thing is how Fr always deflects.... Non stop posting in the last 5 forecasts... I poke my head in here for the first time in ages, agree with Ben, and FR loses his shit..... As I said, fuck you guys crack me up....
Yeah, Fr, have had a few waves.... Seems you haven't..... lol So will I be the target tomorrow, or will you be back to sticking it to the SW reporters for calling it a "3" when it should be a "2"?......
Few nice waves this arvo on the webcams....
Attention Please:
Calling Maurice Cole to the 'forget Tuesday, Wednesday' thread
Your good mate 'Freeride76' needs some back up NOW.