South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 23rd November)

Best Days: Tues: keep an eye on local wind obs, as there'll be a long period S'ly swell in the water. Wed: fun waves at most open beaches early morning, just a little undersized in SE Qld away from the swell magnets. Fri: leftover NE swell in Northern NSW with developing S'ly winds (ie southern corners peaky and fun). 

Recap: Terrible waves in general over the weekend. Small leftover S’ly swell in Northern NSW on Saturday, with freshening northerly winds ahead of a S’ly change. Hardly any surf north of the border either. Sunday saw cooling southerly winds and a small SE windswell, plus some short range E/NE swell on the Sunshine Coast, but winds were mainly SE. Today the northerlies have returned and with no swell in SE Qld, and freshening N’ly winds across the broader region, the only rideable options have been at protected northern corner in Northern NSW which are picking up a building S’ly groundswell (fun 3ft sets at south swell magnets).

Next week (Tuesday 24th - Friday 27th)

Southeast Qld: Honestly, there’s nothing of interest this week.

Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday offer the only real respite from the northerly flow - it’s going to resume with strength from Wednesday afternoon, through Thursday and possibly early Friday (at least on the Sunny Coast) - so you’ll need to make the most of the next forty hours.

Unfortunately, there won't be much surf to speak of. We’ll probably see some small NE windswell from today (1-2ft exposed north facing beaches) and a new S’ly groundswell may influence the region’s handful of south swell magnets with a occasional 2ft to maybe 3ft of long period energy, but on the whole it’s not worth getting too excited about, because local winds aren’t looking terribly flash either. 

A southerly change advancing along the coast this evening is expected to reach the border early morning (a few hours after dawn), then slow, possibly even stall off the Gold Coast through late morning and lunchtime. This creates some uncertainty as to how the local winds will pan out throughout the day, as troughs are notoriously tricky to have confidence in.

North of the change, northerly winds will persist (i.e. Sunshine Coast), though this may trend NW for a period. Regardless, there is a better-than-even chance that onshore will resume in the afternoon, possibly E/NE on the Sunny Coast and SE across the Gold Coast. But without any notable swell (the fetch trailing the southerly change now’t be significant enough for any decent surf) there’s really nothing to get overly excited about.

Short version: keep an eye on local winds Tuesday, and pounce at a south swell magnet if you see any trace of west in the northerly flow (Sunny Coast), or any weakness in the strength of the expected southerly change (Gold Coast). 

As for Wednesday afternoon through early Friday: northerly winds will generally make a meal of local conditions. 

The flow should be strong enough to whip up some local windswell but with poor surface conditions there’s nothing to get excited about. We are expecting continual southerly groundswell all week, but very little of it will make it ashore north of Byron due to the direction. 

The latest models have a gusty southerly change reaching the border on Friday morning, and extending into the Sunshine Coast by the afternoon, and this may be a little stronger and border in coverage than tomorrow’s change - so we may see some late afternoon waves across the outer Gold Coast points. But this is still early days, and November is not an ideal month for positive speculation across Southeast Queensland.  

Northern NSW: Make the most of Tuesday and early Wednesday as northerlies will ruin the surf through Wednesday afternoon and Thursday.

As discussed in Friday’s notes, we have a series of southerly swells moving up the coast, of which Tuesday is expected to see the most size (3-4ft+ south facing beaches still seems a reasonable possibility, given the size increase seen in Southern NSW today).

However, only south swell magnets will pick up any appreciable size; everywhere else will be smaller due to the direction. Expect surf size to ease through the afternoon, holding in the 3ft+ range at south facing beaches into Wednesday and Thursday as a series of secondary southerly pulses move through. They'll also probably be less consistent than what we're expecting on Tuesday.

Fresh S’ly winds developing early Tuesday morning will limit the best conditions to the semi-exposed points, otherwise you’ll have to make the most of Wednesday morning’s light offshore winds and smaller southerly swells, ahead of the impending northerly flow. 

Strong N’ly winds through Thursday will whip up quite a lot of NE windswell - possibly 3-4ft at north facing beaches, particularly in the southern regions - but quality will be hard to find. Super protected northern corners should still have good options though with long period S’ly swell expected to maintain 3ft+ sets at times. 

Friday morning is probably the best chance to capitalise on this, with a gusty southerly change advancing along the coast. The leftover NE windswell could still be 3ft+ early morning, and will also be replaced by a building S’ly windswell in the wake of the change. But let’s fine tune the particulars on Wednesday.

This weekend (Saturday 28th - Sunday 29th)

Looks like we’ve got a mix of swells for the weekend, and some good waves for a wide range of locations - for Saturday at least. 

Friday’s southerly change is expected to generality some mid-range S/SE swell that’ll probably peak early Saturday and then ease throughout the rest of the weekend.

At the same time, we’re looking at a small building mid-range E’ly swell from an interesting tropical depression expected to meander around the Fijian region for much of the forecast period. This system looks to initially remain just outside of our swell window, so the first phase of swell energy probably won’t have much size - but there us good potential for next week.

A building ridge across the region should maintain SE winds across most coasts on Saturday - ideal for the outer SE Qld points - and wave heights are current expected to be somewhere between 2ft and maybe 3ft at most open coasts, with slightly bigger surf at south swell magnets south of the border.

Sunday may see winds swing to the northeast though no major strength is currently expected. Surf wise, it’s likely that the S/SE tending SE swell will ease but the E’ly swell will maintain. Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.

Next week (Monday 30th onwards)  

Looks like we’ve got some small to moderate E’ly swell for the first half of next week, originating from the Fijian depression. It’s a long time away but initial estimates would have 3ft to maybe 4ft sets at exposed beaches throughout Monday, Tuesday and maybe Wednesday if we’re lucky. But local winds will play a crucial role here and we need quite a few more days before any confidence will come into the local models.