South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 16th November)

Best Days: Tues: fun SE swell, though wind affected on the Sunny Coast. Best in Northern NSW with light winds. Wed: early easing swells with light winds. Thurs/Fri: small south swell with early NW winds. Sat/Sun/Mon: steadily building S'ly swells, possibly getting quite solid in Northern NSW (only small in SE Qld).

Recap: Very little surf across all regions on Saturday, but Sunday saw a late kick in short range SE swell that provided 3ft+ sets at south swell magnets south of Byron, and smaller surf up into SE Qld under a workable S/SE breeze. This swell persisted into this morning, though has eased slowly throughout the day. Early SW winds are now fresh SE along most coasts. A new SE swell expected for tomorrow has yet to show any signs of arrival. 

This week (Tuesday 17th - Friday 20th)

The current fresh SE winds across the coast will ease into Tuesday as the coastal trough responsible for Sunday’s southerly change (and today’s winds) contracts to the north. We’ll still see a lingering SE flow about SE Qld, but winds should remain light and variable in Northern NSW, and the southern Gold Coast should see at least a period of light SW winds in the morning.

A trough in the Northern Tasman Sea is working in conjunction with an advancing high pressure system in the southwest, to maintain a fresh SE fetch through the central Tasman. This is generating a new SE swell that’s due to arrive this evening, before easing in size throughout Tuesday.

The models have slightly pulled back the strength and orientation of this fetch over the last few days so I have made a minor downwards adjustment to wave heights for Tuesday, and therefore we probably won’t see a lot of residual swell into Wednesday morning, but there should still be some fun options across exposed beaches before winds pick up from the north.

As for other swell sources - there aren’t many for the rest of the week. A polar low migrating through our far southern swell window over the weekend has generated a new S’ly swell that should light up south swell magnets in Northern NSW from later Wednesday (Mid North Coast) into Thursday (North Coast) - but I can’t see much more than an inconsistent 2-3ft from it. This swell will probably maintain inconsistent energy into Friday morning before easing throughout the day. 

Southeast QLD: Tuesday’s new swell should create some OK waves about the outer points on the Gold Coast, but with a lingering SE breeze I fear there may not be quite enough size for the Sunshine Coast to properly benefit, as those sheltered locations will be very small. Most open beaches are looking at 1.5-2ft sets from this source, some outer points and south swell magnets on the Gold Coast may pick up occasional 2-3ft sets but on the whole it’s not looking quite as strong as Friday’s models indicated.

This SE swell will then ease through Wednesday and Thursday, with light winds gradually swinging around to the north. The small southerly groundswell expected on Thursday and Friday probably won’t show up anywhere except for exposed south swell magnets (early NW winds should be favourable for these spots too, if you’re after a small wave), but don't expect much more than a foot or two. In general, surf size is expected to be very small in SE Qld to finish the week.

Northern NSW: Tuesday looks fun with 3ft+ of peaky SE swell at exposed south facing beaches and mainly light variable winds. There may be a few lumpy leftovers from today’s onshore but it should improve throughout the day. 

On Wednesday, winds will gradually freshen from the north as the SE swell fades (early 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches, smaller elsewhere) however it’ll be worth keeping an eye on south swell magnets across the Mid North Coast, with a small new long period swell expected for the afternoon. 

As for Thursday and Friday, we’re expecting moderate northerly winds in general but there’s a decent chance for a period of NW winds in the morning, and this will be the best time to capitalise on the lingering, infrequent southerly groundswell. Set waves probably won’t show much more than 2-3ft at south swell magnets, but they will be the only real options for keen surfers. 

This weekend (Saturday 21st - Sunday 22nd)

Lots of southerly swell developing into the weekend and throughout the longer term.

A decent front pushing through the lower Tasman Sea overnight Thursday and into Friday will kick up a fresh south swell for Saturday morning (Mid North Coast), arriving in the Far North after lunch however the swell direction probably won’t favour SE Qld away from exposed south swell magnets (sorry!). 

Fortunately, an even stronger frontal progression is expected to develop behind this - around Saturday in the southern Tasman Sea - and although the storm track and resulting swell direction will be similar to Saturday’s swell (arriving throughout Sunday), the larger wave heights should allow for some small late waves across the outer points in SE Qld.

At this stage, south facing beaches in Northern NSW are looking at 3-4ft surf building throughout Saturday, however Sunday’s swell could reach 5-6ft surf if current model guidance holds true. Obviously, wave heights will be smaller at semi-exposed points and protected beaches so let’s fine tune this outlook on Wednesday.

As for SE Qld, expect very small contentions for Saturday and most of Sunday, with a chance for a kick in new S’ly swell late Sunday afternoon to 2ft+ across the outer points. 

Next week (Monday 23rd onwards)

Looks like the Southern Ocean storm track will be a consistent supplier of southerly swell energy into the long term too, with plenty of weather systems lining up into next week. As such, the outlook for the first half of next week continues to favour Northern NSW for surf, with only small, highly refracted southerly energy for SE Qld. More on this in Wednesday’s notes.