South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 6th November)

Best Days: Saturday: window of opportunity across exposed beaches ahead of the S'ly change, mainly Northern NSW (only small in SE Qld). Wed/Thurs: chance for a short range E'ly swell in SE Qld. 

Recap: Winds remained favourable for longer than expected on Thursday, and surf size came in slightly higher than forecast with 3-4ft of S/SE swell lighting up exposed beaches south of Byron Bay. The surf was much smaller north of the Byron (and tiny on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts) but these locations have seen a small lift in size into this morning with an additional SE swell off the top of a Tasman high. Most Gold Coast beaches managed 2ft sets under an early W'ly breeze before the northerlies resumed, but unfortunately the Sunshine Coast has remained very small indeed. South facing beaches south of Byron have continued to pick up a combination of S/SE groundswell and mid range SE swell with early 3-4ft sets. These swells are now slowly easing as northerly winds freshen about the coast. 

Synoptic overview

It’s really not a great forecast period for Southern Queensland and Northern NSW surfers. Although, the wind outlook is certainly better with the northerly flow expected to dissipate through Saturday and then remain absent for a while. But the main feature is a lack of significant swell generating systems. 

Wind wise, we’ve got trough moving up the Northern NSW coast that will push fresh southerlies into most regions throughout Saturday, reaching the border late afternoon but probably not the Sunshine Coast until the early hours of Sunday morning.

Ahead of the change, winds are likely to veer NW then SW however the Sunshine Coast is modelled to see early NW winds veer more N’ly throughout the day and freshen. So expect conditions to become marginal north of Brisbane again. 

The rest of the forecast period looks to be dominated by a weak ridge across the coast, which should keep the Northern NSW coast under mainly light winds and sea breezes, tending moderate E/SE across Southeast Queensland. A weak trough may form in the Southern Coral Sea around Tuesday or Wednesday, leading to an increase in short range E’ly swell for the Gold and Sunshine Coasts but it’s too early to have any confidence in there being any great surf. 

This weekend (Saturday 7th - Sunday 8th)

Southeast Qld: A small mix of swells this weekend, really not that much to get excited about. A brief E’ly fetch off the top of the Tasman high may kick up a weak 1-2ft of peaky surf for open beaches, and it’ll mix in with some tiny leftover NE windswell and some refracted SE groundswell (from a polar low off the Ice Shelf SE of New Zealand earlier this week) but no great size is likely from either source.

The Gold Coast should see reasonable conditions on Saturday with early light to moderate NW winds tending variable throughout the middle of the day, ahead of a late SW tending S’ly change. The exposed beach breaks will probably be your best bet under this combination.

The Sunshine Coast doesn’t look very good though; the surf will be small and weak, and although winds may be NW early we are expecting freshening N’ly winds throughout the day as the trough approaches (it looks like these winds will extend down to about North Stradbroke Island). So aim for sheltered northern corners once the wind picks up. 

On Sunday the NE windswell component will dry up and although the model guidance has a small lift in short range S’ly swell, I can’t see there being much in it. So again, expect small peaky waves at the beach breaks with early SW winds tending S’ly then SE throughout the day, becoming moderate to fresh from lunchtime through the afternoon.

Northern NSW: Saturday could be OK. The S’ly change will advance along the coast throughout the day, initially SW across the Mid North Coast but S’ly by mid-morning. However the North Coast will see early NW winds tending variable before the SW tending S’ly combo from mid afternoon onwards, and with a mix of SE groundswell, NE windswell and mid range E’ly swell across the region the open beaches should have peaky options in the 2-3ft range. Just get in early before the S’ly kicks in (you’ll have a longer period of favourable conditions, the further north you are located).

I can’t see there being any more size on Sunday than Saturday, with generally the same swell sources on hand excluding Saturday's NE windswell originating from today’s late blow. Winds should be early SW but as the ridge builds across the coast they’ll swing S’ly then SE throughout the day, so expect only a short window of favourable winds across the open beaches. I doubt there’ll be enough size for semi-exposed points either.

Next week (Monday 9th onwards)

Still nothing major expected next week. A developing low north of New Zealand today is unfavourably aligned for our coast (aimed towards NZ’s East Coast) and it’s also expected to track slowly eastwards. On the whole, expect very small inconsistent energy from this source around Monday or Tuesday.

Elsewhere, there are no other major swell sources. But I will be keeping an eye on a weak trough modelled to form in the Southern Coral Sea around Tuesday, that could provide a punchy short range E’ly swell to Southeast Queensland from Wednesday through Thursday. Let’s take a closer look at this in Monday’s updated forecast.

Otherwise, throughout the forecast period our swell windows are littered with theoretically modeled weather systems that could very well produce something interesting and/or rideable.. but are either small scale at best, or complete fantasy at worst. So I won’t bother listing them here until we start to see a more definitive trend in the forecast models. However, dynamic weather charts are certainly expected at this time of the year, keeping all weather observers on their toes - which certainly includes this correspondent. 

Have a great weekend, see you Monday.