South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 4th November)

Best Days: No great days. There'll be a few small windows of beachbreaks hwere and there, but on the whole, nothing to get excited about.

Recap: Tuesday played out as expected with no new swell and fresh northerly winds ahead of a slowly northwards advancing trough which spread a weak southerly change across the Mid North Coast and parts of the North Coast. Today - well, the expected southerly groundswell hardly eventuated. South swell magnets on the Mid North Coast appear to have picked up some 2ft sets but north of here it remained tiny (though conditions have been reasonably good all day with light winds under the influence of the trough). Why didn’t this swell arrive? A quick hindcast shows that my enthusiasm towards the polar low responsible for the swell didn’t take into account just how much of the fetch was actually over the Ice Shelf. See the model estimation of the fetch around the low (on Sunday), compared to the ASCAT winds - you can see that the ice shelf bisected the low, meaning almost all of the southerly fetch on its western flank was essentially over land. I should have picked up on this in Monday’s notes, but was very rushed for time and mistakenly assumed it had developed just north of the ice pack (as the period charts were still showing a healthy swell front pushing through the Tasman Sea). So, I gotta take that one on the chin.. sorry!

Synoptic overview

Lots happening on the charts this week, but not necessarily much in the surf department.

The coastal trough responsible for the last few days of thundery weather is dissipating as a high pressure system in the Tasman Sea strengthens a ridge along the coast. This will freshen E’ly tending NE then N’ly winds about all regions through Thursday afternoon and Friday before a shallow southerly change pushes along the Mid North Coast on Saturday morning, reaching the Far North Coast in the afternoon (and probably not SE Qld until the evening). 

Despite today’s no show we still have several sources of new swell on the cards. The low responsible for today’s non-existent southerly groundswell had a reasonable trailing SW fetch that should supply some small sideband southerly groundswell into Thursday. We’ll also see some mid-range E/SE swell off the top of the Tasman high as this fetch spreads northwards into our swell window and broadens in coverage (it’s already kicked up 3-4ft surf for Sydney today). This will be best suited to Northern NSW though, peaking later Thursday and easing Friday.

A small low off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island will contribute some minor SE energy in the mix and there’s also a chance for some distance long range SE swell from a secondary incarnation of the polar low responsible for today’s non-event (though confidence is now low on this source, following what eventuated today).

Elsewhere, the weekend’s southerly change probably won’t generate much new energy for the region, and unfortunately, the chances for a stronger E’ly swell from Sunday thru’ Monday next week have been dashed, with the mid-latitude low now expected to form initially inside the swell shadow of New Zealand, before it merges with a tropical system further to the NE - this latter development will probably be inside our swell window but at this stage the large travel distance and generally poor alignment doesn’t sit in favour of any notable swell generation for Australia.  

This week (Tuesday 3rd - Friday 6th)

Southeast Qld: Nothing major on the cards for the next few days. Thursday morning has the only window of opportunity with mainly light and variable winds throughout the morning (probably from the N quadrant, if anything) before nor’easters develop into the afternoon and freshen.

Moderate to occasionally fresh northerly winds are then expected on Friday.

Thursday will see a small building short range SE swell off the top of the Tasman ridge, but wind strengths are not especially strong so no major size is expected. A peak in size is due later Thursday or early Friday, with maybe 1-2ft sets at open beaches a few larger waves possible at south swell magnets. But with the tricky winds expected around the peak of the swell it’s hard to get excited. Friday will likely see easing SE swell topped up by a low quality NE windswell into the afternoon. Typical spring stuff, really.

Northern NSW: Thursday’s winds look really tricky to capitalise on, unless you’re in the Far North of the state. Essentially, this ridge will build up the coast so we’ll see fresh nor’easters develop early in southern regions, however it may not kick in until lunchtime or later in the Far North (and anywhere in the middle, for locations between Port Mac and Yamba).

As for surf, we’re looking at a peaky mix of southerly groundswell and mid range E/SE swell off the top of the Tasman high. Our surf model is estimating 3-4ft in Coffs, which I think is a little high - probably due to local windswell contamination. It also has 2-3ft for Ballina, which is more likely IMO across most regions (perhaps a touch bigger south of Port Mac).

Unfortunately, the peak won’t arrive until the afternoon - especially in the North - which is a shame as this is when we’re likely to see the worst surface conditions.

As for Friday, we’re looking at gusty winds from the northern quadrant with a mix of easing E/SE swell and building NE windswell. The latter could get quite punchy in southern regions late in the day (3ft+ sets south of Port Mac) but it’ll be smaller with increasing northerly latitude.

But then again, with the accompanying northerly winds, it’s hardly worth getting excited about.

This weekend (Saturday 7th - Sunday 8th)

My quiet confidence for some 'fun small waves’ this weekend has slightly evaporated over the last 24 hours. Nevertheless we’re still looking at improving conditions (given Friday’s terrible northerlies), and most open beaches should see a peaky combination of swells at some point.

The main reason for my abating enthusiasm is a modeled weakening of the ridge across the Northern Tasman Sea on Thursday. This was expected to kick up some reasonable trade swell for Saturday, peaking on Sunday, but with less strength and a reduced fetch width, I don’t think we’ll see much more than a couple of feet at exposed beaches.

There’ll also be some lingering SE swell from the South Island low, maybe some stray sets from the polar low SE of New Zealand, and also initially some small NE windswell leftover from Friday’s blow. 

The weekend’s winds will mainly dictate surf prospects though. A southerly change slowly moving up the Northern NSW coast on Saturday should create a period of light winds in and around the change (with moderate to fresh southerlies in its wake). 

However, locations to the north - especially SE Qld, are looking at persistent northerly winds throughout Saturday ahead of the change.

The Gold Coast and Far Northern NSW coast may see a weakening of these winds later in the day (depending on the movements of the trough) but it’s more than likely that conditions on the Sunshine Coast will be marginal all day. 

Sunday’s winds look to be moderate SE across most coasts, so allowing for some local topographical variation early morning, this will be the best time to surf with a peaky swell combo at open beaches. But in general I wouldn’t get too excited about the weekend’s surf prospects. Hopefully Friday’s updated forecast notes will see a little more light at the end of the tunnel.

Next week (Monday 9th onwards)

Nothing major lining up for next week at this stage. It looks like we’ll see another seasonal inland trough across the SE corner of the country, leading to a return of NE winds early in the week, but at this stage swell prospects are a little slim.

The only source showing up for this time period right now is the aforementioned merger of the mid-latitude low near New Zealand’s North Island, and a tropical system migrating southwards. This is expected to form a decent system NE of New Zealand around Friday, but at the moment model guidance suggests it’ll be mainly aimed into NZ itself. If we see any east swell from it, we’re looking at a Monday or Tuesday arrival, but right now I wouldn’t hold your breath.