South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 2nd November)

Best Days: Wed: Inconsistent long period S'ly swell, best suited to south facing beaches in Northern NSW with light winds (expect very small surf in SE Qld away from the swell magnets). Thurs/Fri: chance for some peaky short range waves in SE Qld, if local winds behave. Sat/Sun: small peaky mix of swells with tricky winds, but there'll be a few windows at most coasts.

Recap: Saturday delivered some impressive long lines out of the south across Northern NSW, with sets in the 3ft+ range at times although very inconsistent. Winds were reasonably light through the early to mid morning but freshened from the north in most areas by lunchtime. Unfortunately surf size was very small in SE Qld. Freshening N’ly winds persisted into Sunday though the early morning again offered a (shorter) window of light N/NW winds which favoured south facing beaches, which were picking up slightly smaller, and less consistent S’ly energy. Today we’ve seen a further decrease in S’ly swell but a new NE windswell that’s mainly benefited the southern parts of the Mid North Coast. Winds are again freshening from the north which is maintaining small NE windswell about the coast. 

Synoptic overview

A trough is slowly making its way up the NSW coast, and will push into the Mid North Coast on Tuesday morning, bringing a southerly wind change with it. This trough is expected to stall just north of the Mid North Coast, and the southerly flow probably won’t quite reach the border, settling in around Yamba or maybe Ballina. 

North of the trough, winds will remain moderate to fresh northerly however there’ll be a region close to the trough that should see variable winds for a period. This looks to be the Far Northern NSW coast on Tuesday afternoon, extending into most areas on Wednesday (although there’s still a risk of a northerly flow in SE Qld, especially on the Sunshine Coast).

As for swell sources, there are numerous regions that have already developed, are developing or are yet-to develop, all of which will contribute energy over the coming days. The most notable is a long period S’ly groundswell from a weekend polar low off the Ice Shelf, that's due around Wednesday with sets of about 3-4ft at south swell magnets in Northern NSW. 

Smaller secondary swells will fill out the second half of the week but this will be overshadowed by a robust E’ly trending NE flow along the coast from later Wednesday through Thursday and Friday, reducing the only surfable options to protected northern corners. 

Another trough pushing up the coast should renew southerly winds about the region into Saturday and Sunday, along with an associated increase in short range S/SE swell. 

This week (Tuesday 3rd - Friday 6th)

Southeast Qld: Nothing worthwhile expected on Tuesday with continuing northerly winds and small north-east wind waves.

Wednesday should see the northerly flow abate significantly, if not tend completely light and variable - though we may see a lingering northerly north of Moreton Island. However aside from a small NE windswell (nothing major, just weak 1-1.5ft sets at north facing beaches) the presence of a long period south swell will only favour exposed south swell magnets (say, very inconsistent 2-3ft sets) - most locations will remain very small indeed.

By Thursday the ridge will build along the coast and we’ll see freshening E’ly winds tending northeast through Friday. There’ll be a mix of small refracted southerly groundswell, and some minor building E’ly windswell off the top if the Tasman ridge, but it's hard to get excited aith the tricky wind outlook. 

The models have 2-3ft of peaky surf through Thursday afternoon and Friday which seems about right but apart from an outside chance of a window of light variable winds in the mornings - of which surf size will be small early Thursday anyway - local conditions are not looking particularly flash.

There is a chance that this outlook could improve in Wednesday’s update (wind wise, I’d hedge my bets against the Sunny Coast over the Gold Coast at this stage) but on the balance I wouldn’t get too excited about surfing just yet.

Northern NSW: Tuesday looks pretty average. The northerly flow generating our current windswell doesn’t look like it’ll persist enough to majorly favour surf prospects on Tuesday, and with the southerly change slowly moving up the coast it’s hard to pin down just which regions will see a favourable period of light winds. In any case there won’t be any new short range swell behind the change (yet!) so you’re better off leaving it until Wednesday.

The southerly groundswell due Wednesday is still a little hard to have total confidence in, mainly because the enormous travel distance means set waves will be very inconsistent - so you'll need to wait patiently to properly assess the size.

But I’m still confident that south swell magnets south of Byron will see occasional bombs in the 3-4ft range, with smaller waves on the Tweed Coast (and much smaller surf at locations not directly open to the south). 

As for winds on Wednesday, it looks like you’ll have to make the most of the early session (mainly around the Mid North Coast), as the trough will reconfigure its orientation during the day and redevelop easterly winds through the afternoon. Most of the North Coast should see mainly light variable winds though, but it’s an unstable pattern so if you see something worthwhile, pounce.

Thursday and Friday then look like they’ll be under the influence of a freshening E’ly tending NE airstream. We will see persistent southerly swell (smaller than Wednesday, though) favouring south facing beaches in the 2-3ft range, plus some short range E’ly swell off the top of the Tasman high and a small mid range SE swell from a brief low developing off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island tonight.

But the domineering factor for the second half of this week will be the local winds. Look for some shelter, or else you will probably struggle to find anything worthwhile.

This weekend (Saturday 7th - Sunday 8th)

I’m quietly confident we’re going to see some fun small waves at some point this weekend, although Northern NSW will probably come out on top in the size department once again. We have several sources of swell:

(1) short range NE windswell on Saturday, from Friday's local fetch

(2) short range (but lengthening) E’ly swell during Saturday from the top of the Tasman high, with a secondary (bigger) pulse on Sunday

(3) unusual long period S/SE groundswell from a polar low developing off the Ice Shelf, S/SE of New Zealand (both days)

(4) building short range S/SE swell in the lee of a trough moving up the coast (mainly Sunday, and mainly across the Mid North Coast)

At this stage expectations are that the (moderate) S’ly change will move through the Mid North Coast early Saturday, reaching the border late afternoon. So SE Qld may still be under a northerly flow on Saturday but there’s a reasonable chance it could be light NW for the morning at least before moderate southerly winds envelop the reion on Sunday. 

Wave heights will probably hold around the 2ft mark at most open Gold/Sunshine Coast beaches both days - with a possible increase into Sunday thanks to an intensification along the top of the Tasman high on Thursday (maybe 2-3ft+ sets?) - but let’s see how the models are looking on Wednesday.

In Northern NSW, surf size will be a little bigger, but conditions will all depend on the timing and strength of the change. Saturday does look a little dicey but Sunday should see mainly lighter winds as the trough pushes away from the coast. Wave heights should manage 2-3ft at most open beaches both days (again, with a possible pulse on Sunday, but mainly in the northern regions), but I’ll revise this in Wednesday’s update.

Next week (Monday 9th onwards)

Still plenty of activity for the long term, with the weekend’s trough expected to develop into a reasonable SE swell producer for the start of the new week (mainly for Northern NSW).

Additionally, a deepening trough south of Fiji on Thursday is expected to develop into a mid latitude low off the North Island of New Zealand by Friday, and we’ll see several stages of swell from it.

The first possible pulse from it is some mid-range energy around Sunday - as described above - before a slightly longer period pulse pushes through around Monday or maybe Tuesday. There is some concern that this low may slip into the swell shadow of New Zealand, so we’ll have to assess future more guidance accordingly.