South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 28th October)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri/Sat: small, intermittent and infrequent S'ly swells with mainly light winds. Best suited to south swell magnets in all areas. Wed: long period S'ly groundswell, could be sizey at swell magnets.

Recap: Tuesday delivered mainly average waves in most areas. A southerly change pushed up the coast during the day, and the minor NE swell expected for a small region (mainly Gold/Tweed Coasts) was a little smaller and erratic than expected thanks to overnight thunderstorms disrupting the local fetch. A small distant S/SE groundswell was also in the mix, appearing every twenty minutes and providing some fun waves at south swell magnets in Northern NSW. Today we’ve seen a building combo of S‘ly swells fill into the coast, with good 4ft+ sets south of Byron Bay and smaller surf north of the border (1-2ft most beaches, 2-3ft at outer points and south swell magnets). However despite the small size on the Gold Coast, the Superbank’s delivered some sterling little peelers this afternoon, showing what good shape the sand is in right now.

Snapper Rocks this afternoon

Peeling beautifully

On and on and on...

Right through into Cooly

This week (Thursday 29th - Friday 30th)

The new Tasman Low in the Central Tasman Sea is developing today in the wake of Tuesday’s change, but since Monday’s model guidance, its location has shifted a little further east, and is also aimed slightly more off-axis from our swell window (from what was a reasonably unfavourable alignment anyway). 

As such the small reinforcing pulse expected later Thursday and into Friday will be a little smaller in size, and probably best suited to northern locations open to south swell: wave heights will be smaller south of Ballina or Yamba from this event.

Nevertheless, an additional (unrelated) small southerly groundswell is expected to push through on Friday and it’ll top up all south facing facing beaches in Northern NSW, probably negating the latitudinal favouritism owing to the Tasman Low. 

Southeast Qld: The current southerly swell combo will ease back into Thursday, before we see the S/SE swell (from the Tasman Low) and a small S’ly swell (from the Southern Ocean) push across the region on Friday. As such, early Thursday morning will see the biggest and best waves, with a small resurgence Friday likely to only favour south swell magnets.

Local winds are looking OK both days as a weak trough hangs to the north, maintaining light to moderate E/SE winds that’ll probably be variable for a reasonable period of the day. So, it won’t be quite perfect but in the event that winds do swing onshore, no major strength is likely.

As for size, expect inconsistent waves between 1ft and maybe 2ft at most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches early Thursday, easing throughout the day. Some outer points (i.e. Snapper) may pick up bigger 2ft+ sets early in the day, and south swell magnets should see occasional 3ft waves ahead of the easing trend. 

Friday’s sideband pulse should nudge back up similar to Thursday morning's range, though there may be an even longer wait for sets, and we may also see a slightly wider range in wave heights across the coast (I think these S’ly and S/SE swells will really only favour exposed south swell magnets). Nevertheless, keep an eye on the cams for the best current guidance.

Northern NSW: We’re looking at the same trend south of the border too; slowly down on Thursday, then up a little on Friday but very inconsistent at times.

With no strength in the local winds, surface conditions should remain reasonably good both days, but the biggest waves will be confined to south swell magnets early Thursday morning (3-4ft) and then occasionally throughout Friday of a similar size as the dual S’ly and S/SE swells push through. Expect smaller surf away from those locations open to the south.

This weekend (Saturday 31st - Sunday 1st)

Still not a great deal expected this weekend. However, Saturday is definitely the pick as Sunday looks like it’ll be northerly-affected.

Friday’s southerly swell combo should still be in the water early Saturday but it’ll ease during the day. South swell magnets in Northern NSW may still see a few stray 3-4ft sets at first light, but the trend will be down throughout the day.

SE Qld will pick up even less size from this source; mainly weak 1-2ft waves at most beaches with the region’s handful of south swell magnets seeing occasional 2-3ft bombs early morning, before it eases throughout the day.

Another small southerly swell is expected to glance the coast later Saturday and into Sunday, originating from a broad but poorly aligned polar low in the Southern Ocean over the coming days. This will only favour south swell magnets in Northern NSW, with inconsistent 2-3ft sets however freshening northerly winds will ruin conditions throughout the day.

Fortunately, those locations offering protection from this wind (south of Byron) will pick up most of the energy, so despite the lengthy break between waves there should be rideable options across a few select parts of the Northern NSW Coast - but I wouldn’t get your hopes up in Far Northern NSW or SE Qld.

Next week (Monday 2nd onwards)

Northerlies are still expected early next week as a trough pushes off the Southern NSW coast, and with easing swells across the region there's not much to get excited about. This trough may end up being a minor swell producer for us mid-week; in fact the latest model runs have it forming a low off New Zealand’s West Coast which could set up a decent SE groundswell later next week. But more on that in Friday’s notes. 

Otherwise, the other main area of interest is a deep, intense polar low modelled to form well south-west of Tasmania on Saturday, with core winds expected to reach 50kts+ as the low slingshots to the north-east - a most favourable synoptic setup for swell generation (if it occurs). This should generate an excellent long period southerly groundswell arriving across the Mid North Coast late Tuesday, and reaching the Far Northern NSW and SE Qld coasts on Wednesday. 

At this stage it’s a little hard to have confidence in the likely size but reliable south swell magnets in Northern NSW could see 4-5ft+ sets from this source (much smaller elsewhere, including SE Qld). Obviously, we’ll need local winds to play ball too so let’s wait and see how the models pan out over the coming days.