South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 26th October)

Best Days: Tues: could be some small peaky waves on the Goldy points in the wake of the S'ly change. Wed/Thurs: mix of S'ly swells in Northern NSW with improving conditions. Late Thurs/early Fri: brief flush of stronger S/SE swell with light winds, best suited to Northern NSW.

Recap: Plenty of decent waves in Northern NSW over the weekend, with a solid 3-5ft S/SE swell early Saturday easing slowly. Sunday morning still delivered very good waves in the 3ft range at beaches exposed to the south, best whilst winds were light and variable; even the afternoon nor’easter remained light north of Ballina. The Gold and Sunshine Coasts however dipped in size from Friday’s offerings, with small surf Saturday becoming tiny on Sunday thanks to the southerly swell direction. Today we’ve seen strengthening N’ly winds and a small residual south swell at south swell magnets in Northern NSW. 

This week (Tuesday 27th - Friday 30th)

Lots of activity on the charts this week, with a few changes in the model guidance since Friday’s notes were prepared. 

The main alteration is the reach and northern extent of the approaching southerly change. In Friday’s outlook, it was suggested that it’d stall across the Mid North Coast on Tuesday, however in the latest runs it’s been given a little more strength and should push right up into Southeast Queensland at some point. Additionally, the secondary development of a new low pressure system now look like it'll occur in the Central Tasman Sea, rather than up against the East Coast.

Southeast Qld: You’ll be well advised to watch the surface obs in northern NSW on Tuesday, especially if you’re near the Gold Coast (I'll keep track of them in the comments below).

The southerly change is expected to reach the border mid-late morning (between 10am-12pm), and once it arrives it’ll quickly clean up the southern points. Surf wise, we’re not expecting a great deal of surf, but the current N’ly airstream should whip up a couple of feet of peaky NE windswell for exposed north facing beaches, so there’s likely to be a brief window (say, 3-4 hours) through the middle of the day where there’s fun peaky waves on offer. Even the morning could see some small beachies as winds are likely to tend lighter NW ahead of the change. 

Assuming the change isn’t delayed, we should also see a mid-late afternoon kick in short range S’ly windswell, but this won't really get in amongst the points (due to the period and low direction) - but south swell magnets may pick up windy 3ft sets towards the end of the day.

The northerly fetch length for the Sunshine Coast is shorter than the Gold Coast, so we may not see quite as much size here on Tuesday (maybe 1-2ft NE windswell). Additionally, the S’ly change is not expected to push north of Moreton Island until mid-late afternoon. However we should see winds also swinging lighter NW during the morning, allowing for some small waves at northern corners. 

The fetch trailing the southerly change will be a decent length, but its direction really won’t favour protected spots on the Gold and Sunshine Coast. As such, we’re looking at small southerly swells on the outer points on Wednesday - around 2ft or so - with bigger waves at south swell magnets in the 3ft range. But most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches will be smaller, hovering around 1-2ft. The ridge behind the change is expected to weaken across the coast during Wednesday which will lead to lighter winds across the coastal margin. Still at risk of a fresh SE breeze is the Sunshine Coast, but some locations (i.e. southern Gold Coast) should see a period of early SW winds in the morning.

Mainly light variable winds are then expected on Thursday and Friday. Wave heights are expected to maintain a similar size into Thursday morning with average S/SE swell offering just 1-2ft surf across most SE Qld beaches, but up to 2-3ft at south swell magnets. 

However, the Tasman low is expected to intensify through Wednesday morning - well offshore - and although not favourably aimed for our region, we should see a reinforcement of slightly stronger sideband S/SE swell later Thursday and into Friday. This will mainly favour Northern NSW but the SE Qld region should see a little more consistency in the 2ft range across the beaches, with 3-4ft sets at south swell magnets. I’ll fine tune the timing of this in Wednesday’s notes. 

Northern NSW: Fresh S’ly winds will generally ruin Tuesday’s surf prospects. The Far North Coast may see a few options just ahead of the change (due into Ballina between 8-10am) but it’s probably not worth getting too excited about. The afternoon’s building S’ly swell won’t be particularly strong, so with tiny options at protected spots the biggest options will be rather bumpy at exposed beaches. 

Surf size should plateau through Wednesday with a mix of short range S/SE swell and some long range S’ly groundswell padding out south facing beaches with 3-4ft+ surf (expect smaller waves at beaches not completely open to the south). As the ridge behind the change weakens, local winds should become light and variable but there is a reasonable chance it’ll tend SE at some point. So keep your expectations low.  

Surf size is then expected to ease slowly into Thursday morning, ahead of a renewal of stronger S/SE swell from the brief Tasman low on Wednesday. This should glance the coast through Thursday afternoon before easing during Friday. South facing beaches should pick up 3-5ft sets by late Thursday (smaller elsewhere) and this size range may persist into Friday morning though I’m not yet confident on how long it’ll hang around.

That being said, there’ll also be an unrelated long range S’ly groundswell in the water on Friday, from a Southern Ocean low (no major size but needs to be considered in the greater context). Let’s assess this in more detail Wednesday. Regardless, winds look light for the last two days of the week so there will be options about the coast.

This weekend (Saturday 31st - Sunday 1st)

Looks like a weekend of nondescript waves ahead. The trades are expected to remain too far north to be of any use to us, Friday’s S/SE swell will be steadily easing through Saturday (although the early morning should have some fun beaches in Northern NSW) and we’re looking at a developing NE breeze on Sunday. A series of small southerly swells should push up the coast during Saturday, holding into Sunday but they’ll only favour Northern NSW. 

One area to keep a watch on in Wednesday notes will be a trailing low off New Zealand’s West Coast around Thursday, in the wake of the Tasman Low responsible for the Thurs/Fri swell. It doesn’t show much in the latest model runs but could pinch off (in the coming days) to form a small closed low in the eastern Tasman Sea, capable of delivering a small fun SE swell sometime over the weekend. But that's about as optimistic as I'm prepared to get for a Monday.

Next week (Monday 2nd onwards)

Nothing major on the charts. Looks like we’ll see a return of the (seasonal) northerlies early next week but as for new swell, there’s not much on the horizon. Good time to book a trip somewhere else methinks.